The Fracture Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Runic
2x $0.15
Mainframe 001
1x $0.19
Ultralight
2x $0.27
Cobalt Paisley
1x $0.42
Royal Baroque
1x $0.48
Mint Fan
3x $0.61
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
25.0% $18.08
Royal Guard
25.0% $5.73
Monster Call
10.0% $0.74
Allure
10.0% $0.74
Connexion
10.0% $0.72
Brother
10.0% $0.72
Max Win
$18.08 (+277.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.31 (+31.7%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+148.1%
Cost
$4.79
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.79
Ask Price EV $6.31 (+31.7%)
Bid Price EV $5.41 (+12.9%)
Ask Profit $1.52 (+31.7%)
Bid Profit $0.62 (+12.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.90 (+18.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.52
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.62
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $18.08 (+277.4%)
Worst Case $0.65 (-86.4%)
Volatility +148.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$7.11
Avg Loss -$4.07
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.65 (-86.4%)
Std Dev $7.10
Avg Norm Float 0.1997
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 139h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Minimal Wear
$1.00 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Minimal Wear
$1.09 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 27M 53S //TOTAL COST $4.79 //ASK PRICE EV $6.31 //BID PRICE EV $5.41 //ASK PROFIT $1.52 (+31.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.62 (+12.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +148.1% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$18.08
+$13.29
+277.4%
$15.21
+$10.42
+217.5%
$2.87
15.9%
—
WIN
25.0%
$5.73
+$0.94
+19.6%
$5.11
+$0.32
+6.7%
$0.62
10.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.74
-$4.05
-84.5%
$0.69
-$4.10
-85.6%
$0.05
7.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.74
-$4.05
-84.6%
$0.69
-$4.10
-85.6%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.72
-$4.07
-84.9%
$0.62
-$4.17
-87.1%
$0.10
14.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.72
-$4.07
-84.9%
$0.66
-$4.13
-86.2%
$0.06
8.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.65
-$4.14
-86.4%
$0.63
-$4.16
-86.8%
$0.02
3.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.14974500000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 18.0765,
"optimistic_value": 17.94,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 15.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.119796,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 5.7275,
"optimistic_value": 5.64,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 5.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:10:14.842875Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.159728,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 0.7234999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:08:57.162665Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19966,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.737,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T15:35:31.747771Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19966,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 0.744,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T10:06:18.050993Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.159728,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 0.6535,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 0.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:05.580728Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19966,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 0.7234999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:11:42.913517Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1cab0d4dc6a44993e0d3e4de",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "503983537176426151",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:51:19.250549Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "646971516261106184",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:50:29.363269Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "490472790736711491",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:40.315269Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "524249735516767095",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:40.315269Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "514116688948786470",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:07:17.891660Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "490472790737100255",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:08:39.483138Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "526501535292808181",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:11:07.694348Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "514116636507281046",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:17.919499Z"
},
{
"price": 1,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "508487189339839862",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:09.576527Z"
},
{
"price": 1.09,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "520872088106430672",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:06:09.576527Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:5+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 25.0% $13.61 Allure 10.0% $1.67 Monster Call 10.0% $1.58 Brother 10.0% $1.54 Connexion 10.0% $1.31 | $38.92 +198.0% | $13.87 +6.2% | 50.0% | +113.0% | $13.06 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.93 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.28 Connexion 10.0% $0.72 Brother 10.0% $0.69 Monster Call 10.0% $0.67 Kitbash 10.0% $0.65 | $6.93 +197.5% | $2.39 +2.5% | 25.0% | +110.5% | $2.33 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.73 Monster Call 14.0% $0.74 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Connexion 14.0% $0.72 Brother 14.0% $0.72 | $18.08 +485.0% | $4.07 +31.8% | 30.0% | +194.4% | $3.09 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.73 Monster Call 8.0% $0.74 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Connexion 8.0% $0.72 Brother 8.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +213.3% | $7.43 +28.7% | 30.0% | +121.6% | $5.77 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.73 Monster Call 6.0% $0.74 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Connexion 6.0% $0.72 Brother 6.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +165.1% | $8.54 +25.3% | 35.0% | +102.9% | $6.82 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.73 Monster Call 16.0% $0.74 Allure 16.0% $0.74 Connexion 16.0% $0.72 Brother 16.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +656.3% | $2.95 +23.4% | 20.0% | +216.6% | $2.39 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.73 Monster Call 4.0% $0.74 Allure 4.0% $0.74 Connexion 4.0% $0.72 Brother 4.0% $0.72 | $18.08 +125.7% | $9.66 +20.7% | 40.0% | +85.8% | $8.01 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.61 Allure 2.0% $1.67 Monster Call 2.0% $1.58 Brother 2.0% $1.54 Connexion 2.0% $1.31 | $38.92 +96.3% | $23.79 +20.0% | 45.0% | +69.4% | $19.83 | — |