The Danger Zone Collection ×7+The Kilowatt Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Wood Fired
2x $0.52
Black Sand
4x $0.52
Danger Close
1x $2.03
Slag
1x $0.37
Dark Sigil
1x $0.85
Irezumi
1x $1.56
↓
Possible Outputs
Pipe Down
14.0% $14.98
Etch Lord
6.0% $13.06
Just Smile
6.0% $9.31
Block-18
6.0% $8.90
Hybrid
6.0% $7.89
Signal
14.0% $7.55
Max Win
$14.98 (+53.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.34 (-14.3%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+34.2%
Cost
$9.74
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $9.74
Ask Price EV $8.34 (-14.3%)
Bid Price EV $7.27 (-25.3%)
Ask Profit $-1.40 (-14.3%)
Bid Profit $-2.47 (-25.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.07 (+11.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.40
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.47
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $14.98 (+53.7%)
Worst Case $4.13 (-57.6%)
Volatility +34.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$4.66
Avg Loss -$2.91
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.13 (-57.6%)
Std Dev $3.33
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 155h 12m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Wood Fired
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Black Sand
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wood Fired
—
Minimal Wear
$0.62 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Black Sand
—
Minimal Wear
$0.81 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Black Sand
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Black Sand
—
Factory New
$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Danger Close
—
Factory New
$2.03 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Factory New
$1.56 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 57S //TOTAL COST $9.74 //ASK PRICE EV $8.34 //BID PRICE EV $7.27 //ASK PROFIT $-1.40 (-14.3%) //BID PROFIT $-2.47 (-25.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $14.98 //VOLATILITY +34.2% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
14.0%
$14.98
+$5.23
+53.7%
$13.80
+$4.06
+41.7%
$1.17
7.8%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$13.06
+$3.32
+34.1%
$12.03
+$2.29
+23.5%
$1.03
7.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$9.31
-$0.43
-4.4%
$7.84
-$1.90
-19.5%
$1.47
15.8%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$8.90
-$0.84
-8.7%
$7.77
-$1.97
-20.2%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$7.89
-$1.85
-19.0%
$7.43
-$2.31
-23.7%
$0.46
5.8%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$7.55
-$2.19
-22.5%
$6.50
-$3.24
-33.3%
$1.05
13.9%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$7.11
-$2.63
-27.0%
$5.90
-$3.84
-39.4%
$1.21
17.1%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$6.52
-$3.22
-33.1%
$5.35
-$4.39
-45.1%
$1.17
17.9%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$4.90
-$4.85
-49.7%
$3.75
-$5.99
-61.5%
$1.14
23.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.13
-$5.61
-57.6%
$3.76
-$5.98
-61.4%
$0.37
8.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-21|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0454285,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aa544d78f97f",
"realistic_value": 4.895,
"optimistic_value": 4.79,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Scavenger",
"conservative_value": 3.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Scavenger (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:08.760285Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aa544d78f97f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.034945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-21f65eaf09eb",
"realistic_value": 7.5455,
"optimistic_value": 7.5,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Signal",
"conservative_value": 6.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:31:26.184919Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-21f65eaf09eb.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.062901,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5bd6cfc7249e",
"realistic_value": 14.975,
"optimistic_value": 14.52,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipe Down",
"conservative_value": 13.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:30:18.926098Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5bd6cfc7249e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.027955999999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0ba15d1b486",
"realistic_value": 7.1135,
"optimistic_value": 7.04,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Nevermore",
"conservative_value": 5.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:33.060154Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0ba15d1b486.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.034945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e44f13c59da",
"realistic_value": 6.5195,
"optimistic_value": 6.39,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Flashback",
"conservative_value": 5.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:31:45.329911Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e44f13c59da.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:28:57.736585Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.04695734375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.314,
"optimistic_value": 9.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:28:58.626471Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.043252125399999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.1265,
"optimistic_value": 4.06,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:11.593982Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_1b17b0b78f3ca76c59518930",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-3a61ea6e759f",
"listing_id": "510738989041247866",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wood Fired",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a61ea6e759f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:10.230414Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-d85d77873f80",
"listing_id": "492724643507540685",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Black Sand",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d85d77873f80.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:24.888926Z"
},
{
"price": 0.62,
"skin_id": "skin-3a61ea6e759f",
"listing_id": "493849693300956568",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wood Fired",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a61ea6e759f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:10.230414Z"
},
{
"price": 0.81,
"skin_id": "skin-d85d77873f80",
"listing_id": "523123091078070802",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Black Sand",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d85d77873f80.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:24.888926Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-d85d77873f80",
"listing_id": "520871291151398412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Black Sand",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d85d77873f80.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:24.888926Z"
},
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-d85d77873f80",
"listing_id": "523123722380135758",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Black Sand",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d85d77873f80.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:24.989263Z"
},
{
"price": 2.03,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5985c30bd8",
"listing_id": "516367691487664286",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Danger Close",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5985c30bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:15.839928Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "515242641502660669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:43.994743Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:06.377160Z"
},
{
"price": 1.56,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "527627322002854856",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:26.955101Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-21:7+collection-set-community-33:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Danger Zone Collection ×7+The Kilowatt Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Signal 14.0% $7.55 Nevermore 14.0% $7.11 Flashback 14.0% $6.52 Etch Lord 6.0% $4.43 Block-18 6.0% $4.19 Pipe Down 14.0% $3.40 | $7.55 +94.5% | $4.70 +21.2% | 54.0% | +42.1% | $3.88 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×7+The Kilowatt Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Nevermore 14.0% $4.07 Signal 14.0% $3.49 Flashback 14.0% $3.00 Etch Lord 6.0% $2.35 Block-18 6.0% $2.01 Just Smile 6.0% $1.56 | $4.07 +77.9% | $2.36 +3.3% | 48.0% | +36.3% | $2.29 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Danger Zone Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Signal 10.0% $7.55 Nevermore 10.0% $7.11 Flashback 10.0% $6.52 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.43 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Pipe Down 10.0% $3.40 | $7.55 +112.5% | $4.30 +21.2% | 50.0% | +43.8% | $3.55 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Signal 8.0% $7.55 Nevermore 8.0% $7.11 Flashback 8.0% $6.52 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.43 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 Pipe Down 8.0% $3.40 | $7.55 +121.9% | $4.10 +20.6% | 48.0% | +43.6% | $3.40 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×6+The Kilowatt Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Signal 12.0% $7.55 Nevermore 12.0% $7.11 Flashback 12.0% $6.52 Etch Lord 8.0% $4.45 Block-18 8.0% $4.19 Just Smile 8.0% $3.34 | $7.55 +102.3% | $4.50 +20.6% | 52.0% | +42.7% | $3.73 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Signal 4.0% $7.55 Nevermore 4.0% $7.11 Flashback 4.0% $6.52 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.43 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Pipe Down 4.0% $3.40 | $7.55 +144.2% | $3.70 +19.8% | 64.0% | +39.7% | $3.09 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Nevermore 2.0% $7.11 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.46 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Signal 2.0% $3.49 Just Smile 18.0% $3.35 Pipe Down 2.0% $3.34 | $7.11 +153.1% | $3.36 +19.5% | 62.0% | +28.2% | $2.81 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Signal 6.0% $7.55 Nevermore 6.0% $7.11 Flashback 6.0% $6.52 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Just Smile 14.0% $3.34 | $7.55 +130.7% | $3.90 +19.4% | 66.0% | +42.4% | $3.27 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Danger Zone Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  30.0% $37.06 Mecha Industries  3.3% $27.53 Jawbreaker  30.0% $14.90 Olympus  30.0% $13.83 Momentum  3.3% $9.78 Phosphor  3.3% $9.63 | $37.06 +98.7% | $21.30 +14.2% | 33.3% | +57.2% | $18.65 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Well-Worn ST | Inheritance  35.0% $135.61 Asiimov  15.0% $98.82 Neo-Noir  15.0% $78.19 Chrome Cannon  35.0% $50.99 | $135.61 +61.3% | $91.86 +9.2% | 50.0% | +42.7% | $84.09 | — |