The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +8.4%Factory New -8.5%Field-Tested +22.3%Minimal Wear +11.0%Well-Worn +6.3%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn

Inputs

Caged

3x $0.14

Bullfrog

2x $0.19

Aeolian Light

4x $0.25

Grip Tape

1x $0.34

↓

Possible Outputs

Breakthrough

25.0% $5.85

Liquidation

10.0% $2.49

Trace Lock

25.0% $2.22

Cat Fight

10.0% $0.96

Continuum

10.0% $0.93

Angel Eyes

10.0% $0.85

Max Win

$5.85 (+136.9%)

EV (ROI %)

$2.63 (+6.3%)

Win %

35.0%

Volatility

+79.4%

Cost

$2.47

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $2.47

Ask Price EV $2.63 (+6.3%)

Bid Price EV $2.31 (-6.5%)

Ask Profit $0.16 (+6.3%)

Bid Profit $-0.16 (-6.5%)

Liquidity Gap $0.31 (+12.7%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.16

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.16

Risk

Win Probability 35.0%

Loss Probability 65.0%

Best Case $5.85 (+136.9%)

Worst Case $0.83 (-66.4%)

Volatility +79.4%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%

Avg Win +$2.42

Avg Loss -$1.06

Bottom 5% Outcome $0.83 (-66.4%)

Std Dev $1.96

Avg Norm Float 0.4244

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 24m

Oldest Output Price 143h 4m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

SCAR-20 | Caged

—

Well-Worn

$0.14 Float: HIDDEN

SCAR-20 | Caged

—

Field-Tested

$0.18 Float: HIDDEN

P250 | Bullfrog

—

Field-Tested

$0.19 Float: HIDDEN

SCAR-20 | Caged

—

Field-Tested

$0.20 Float: HIDDEN

P250 | Bullfrog

—

Field-Tested

$0.26 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.25 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.26 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.31 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Field-Tested

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Field-Tested

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 58M 05S //TOTAL COST $2.47 //ASK PRICE EV $2.63 //BID PRICE EV $2.31 //ASK PROFIT $0.16 (+6.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.16 (-6.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +79.4% //

Possible Outputs · 7

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 5,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 5,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.31827,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 5.77,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 4.91,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.297052,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 2.222,
      "optimistic_value": 2.18,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 2.14,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:40.425168Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.42436,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
      "realistic_value": 0.8534999999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 0.85,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
      "conservative_value": 0.83,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:31:00.709077Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.42436,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
      "realistic_value": 2.4935,
      "optimistic_value": 2.49,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
      "conservative_value": 2.2,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:16.804583Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.42436,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
      "realistic_value": 0.964,
      "optimistic_value": 0.95,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
      "conservative_value": 0.82,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T05:51:56.092922Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.42436,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
      "realistic_value": 0.8305,
      "optimistic_value": 0.82,
      "output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
      "conservative_value": 0.81,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:03.116319Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.42436,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
      "realistic_value": 0.9305,
      "optimistic_value": 0.92,
      "output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
      "conservative_value": 0.82,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:07.840943Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_0fd93c36eb25b2157862f518",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.14,
      "skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
      "listing_id": "526501587737469509",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:40.253371Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
      "listing_id": "494976390476880294",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:37.349803Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
      "listing_id": "510738989040754918",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:30.385069Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.2,
      "skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
      "listing_id": "518620235869812748",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:37.349803Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.26,
      "skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
      "listing_id": "505108692500795132",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:30.385069Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.25,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "526501587737062601",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.662374Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.26,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "516368488724825018",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.662374Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "508487136897723158",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.662374Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "516368488725919454",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:20:08.033860Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "499479989896498261",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:23.546908Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.52 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Angel Eyes 10.0% $1.07 Ocular 10.0% $1.06	$12.25 +197.9%	$5.02 +22.3%	50.0%	+102.8%	$4.11	—
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Breakthrough 25.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 25.0% $14.79 Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 10.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 10.0% $2.14 Ocular 10.0% $2.05	$26.93 +148.2%	$12.04 +11.0%	50.0%	+86.7%	$10.85	—
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Breakthrough 25.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.22 Liquidation 10.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 10.0% $0.74 Ocular 10.0% $0.73	$6.12 +163.6%	$2.51 +8.4%	25.0%	+89.6%	$2.32	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Breakthrough 35.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 35.0% $3.20 Liquidation 6.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 6.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 6.0% $0.74 Ocular 6.0% $0.73	$6.12 +123.2%	$3.52 +28.4%	70.0%	+73.4%	$2.74	—
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Breakthrough 30.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 30.0% $3.20 Liquidation 8.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 8.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 8.0% $0.74 Ocular 8.0% $0.73	$6.12 +142.7%	$3.14 +24.5%	60.0%	+82.0%	$2.52	—
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.28 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Angel Eyes 12.0% $1.07 Continuum 12.0% $1.05	$12.25 +224.8%	$4.30 +14.2%	52.0%	+107.3%	$3.77	—
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.28 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Angel Eyes 14.0% $1.07 Continuum 14.0% $1.05	$12.25 +260.1%	$3.64 +7.2%	44.0%	+109.8%	$3.40	—
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.28 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 16.0% $2.14 Ocular 16.0% $2.05	$12.25 +203.8%	$4.23 +5.1%	36.0%	+79.9%	$4.03	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested	The End 30.0% $27.17 Ice Coaled 23.3% $11.85 Smoking Kills 23.3% $10.43 Mirror Mosaic 23.3% $9.64	$27.17 +117.0%	$15.60 +24.6%	30.0%	+60.8%	$12.52	—