The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Focus
1x $1.34
Broken Record
2x $1.35
Red Wing
1x $1.39
Bullfrog
1x $1.50
The Daily Deagle
2x $0.98
Creep
1x $1.43
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
25.0% $26.93
Liquidation
10.0% $19.42
Trace Lock
25.0% $14.79
Cat Fight
10.0% $6.50
Angel Eyes
10.0% $6.27
Continuum
10.0% $6.13
Max Win
$26.93 (+65.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$14.87 (-8.5%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+50.8%
Cost
$16.25
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $16.25
Ask Price EV $14.87 (-8.5%)
Bid Price EV $14.03 (-13.7%)
Ask Profit $-1.38 (-8.5%)
Bid Profit $-2.22 (-13.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.84 (+5.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.38
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.22
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+65.7%)
Worst Case $6.09 (-62.5%)
Volatility +50.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$8.53
Avg Loss -$6.72
Bottom 5% Outcome $6.09 (-62.5%)
Std Dev $8.26
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 27m
Oldest Output Price 143h 8m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New
$1.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$1.35 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$1.38 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$1.39 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Factory New
$1.50 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Minimal Wear
$0.98 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 57M 41S //TOTAL COST $16.25 //ASK PRICE EV $14.87 //BID PRICE EV $14.03 //ASK PROFIT $-1.38 (-8.5%) //BID PROFIT $-2.22 (-13.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +50.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$26.93
+$10.68
+65.7%
$26.63
+$10.38
+63.9%
$0.30
1.1%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$19.42
+$3.17
+19.5%
$16.07
-$0.18
-1.1%
$3.35
17.2%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$14.79
-$1.46
-9.0%
$13.15
-$3.10
-19.1%
$1.64
11.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$6.50
-$9.75
-60.0%
$6.35
-$9.90
-60.9%
$0.15
2.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$6.27
-$9.98
-61.4%
$6.21
-$10.04
-61.8%
$0.06
1.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$6.13
-$10.12
-62.3%
$6.12
-$10.13
-62.3%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$6.09
-$10.16
-62.5%
$6.07
-$10.18
-62.6%
$0.02
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.052469999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.789,
"optimistic_value": 14.74,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:03.653054Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 6.27,
"optimistic_value": 6.27,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:10.135990Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 19.4155,
"optimistic_value": 19.37,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 16.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:11:14.220331Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 6.5005,
"optimistic_value": 6.49,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 6.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:49.117939Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 6.09,
"optimistic_value": 6.09,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 6.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.650363Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 6.13,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:04.014518Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0fd93c36eb25b2157862f518",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "519746188258177352",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:50.275730Z"
},
{
"price": 1.35,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "490472790736724379",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:51.045773Z"
},
{
"price": 1.38,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "511864836540599481",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:51.045773Z"
},
{
"price": 1.39,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "507361289453364277",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:57.729483Z"
},
{
"price": 1.5,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "524249787961760595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:05.220382Z"
},
{
"price": 0.98,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "514116688950130098",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:23.922651Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "507361289453312365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:43.493041Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "521997988015861818",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:20:01.341140Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "520872088106386248",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:20:01.341140Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:12.484888Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.52 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Angel Eyes 10.0% $1.07 Ocular 10.0% $1.06 | $12.25 +197.9% | $5.02 +22.3% | 50.0% | +102.8% | $4.11 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 25.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 25.0% $14.79 Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 10.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 10.0% $2.14 Ocular 10.0% $2.05 | $26.93 +148.2% | $12.04 +11.0% | 50.0% | +86.7% | $10.85 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 25.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.22 Liquidation 10.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 10.0% $0.74 Ocular 10.0% $0.73 | $6.12 +163.6% | $2.51 +8.4% | 25.0% | +89.6% | $2.32 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 25.0% $5.85 Liquidation 10.0% $2.49 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.22 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.96 Continuum 10.0% $0.93 Angel Eyes 10.0% $0.85 | $5.85 +136.9% | $2.63 +6.3% | 35.0% | +76.0% | $2.47 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 35.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 35.0% $3.20 Liquidation 6.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 6.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 6.0% $0.74 Ocular 6.0% $0.73 | $6.12 +123.2% | $3.52 +28.4% | 70.0% | +73.4% | $2.74 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 30.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 30.0% $3.20 Liquidation 8.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 8.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 8.0% $0.74 Ocular 8.0% $0.73 | $6.12 +142.7% | $3.14 +24.5% | 60.0% | +82.0% | $2.52 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.28 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Angel Eyes 12.0% $1.07 Continuum 12.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +224.8% | $4.30 +14.2% | 52.0% | +107.3% | $3.77 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.28 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Angel Eyes 14.0% $1.07 Continuum 14.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +260.1% | $3.64 +7.2% | 44.0% | +109.8% | $3.40 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.28 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 16.0% $2.14 Ocular 16.0% $2.05 | $12.25 +203.8% | $4.23 +5.1% | 36.0% | +79.9% | $4.03 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  30.0% $27.17 Ice Coaled  23.3% $11.85 Smoking Kills  23.3% $10.43 Mirror Mosaic  23.3% $9.64 | $27.17 +117.0% | $15.60 +24.6% | 30.0% | +60.8% | $12.52 | — |