The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Focus
1x $0.40
Red Wing
3x $0.65
Bullfrog
1x $1.50
Grip Tape
1x $0.87
Aeolian Light
2x $0.94
The Daily Deagle
1x $0.98
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
25.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
25.0% $14.79
Liquidation
10.0% $7.67
Cat Fight
10.0% $2.28
Angel Eyes
10.0% $2.14
Ocular
10.0% $2.05
Max Win
$26.93 (+148.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$12.04 (+11.0%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+91.5%
Cost
$10.85
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $10.85
Ask Price EV $12.04 (+11.0%)
Bid Price EV $11.42 (+5.3%)
Ask Profit $1.19 (+11.0%)
Bid Profit $0.57 (+5.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.62 (+5.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.19
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.57
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+148.2%)
Worst Case $2.00 (-81.6%)
Volatility +91.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$10.01
Avg Loss -$7.62
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.00 (-81.6%)
Std Dev $9.93
Avg Norm Float 0.0933
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 142h 58m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Minimal Wear
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$1.39 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Factory New
$1.50 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Minimal Wear
$0.98 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 58M 05S //TOTAL COST $10.85 //ASK PRICE EV $12.04 //BID PRICE EV $11.42 //ASK PROFIT $1.19 (+11.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.57 (+5.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +91.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$26.93
+$16.08
+148.2%
$26.63
+$15.78
+145.4%
$0.30
1.1%
—
WIN
25.0%
$14.79
+$3.94
+36.3%
$13.15
+$2.30
+21.2%
$1.64
11.1%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$7.67
-$3.18
-29.3%
$6.71
-$4.14
-38.2%
$0.96
12.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.28
-$8.57
-78.9%
$2.04
-$8.81
-81.2%
$0.24
10.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.14
-$8.71
-80.3%
$2.03
-$8.82
-81.3%
$0.11
5.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.05
-$8.80
-81.1%
$2.03
-$8.82
-81.3%
$0.02
1.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.00
-$8.85
-81.6%
$1.99
-$8.86
-81.7%
$0.01
0.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.069945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.06528199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.789,
"optimistic_value": 14.74,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:03.653054Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09326,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 2.14,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 2.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:14.209575Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09326,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 7.667,
"optimistic_value": 7.66,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 6.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.771865Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09326,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 2.284,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:58.225593Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09326,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 2.0505,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 2.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:23.896813Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.09326,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 2,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:16.450240Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0fd93c36eb25b2157862f518",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "503983537174108975",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:38.467410Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "514116636505205970",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:41.075041Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "519745391330807492",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:41.075041Z"
},
{
"price": 1.39,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "507361289453364277",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:57.729483Z"
},
{
"price": 1.5,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "524249787961760595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:05.220382Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "506235337025136948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:00.003899Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313427412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:13:03.005323Z"
},
{
"price": 0.98,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "514116688950130098",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:23.922651Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "507361289453312365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:43.493041Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "520872088106386248",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:20:01.341140Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.52 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.13 Angel Eyes 10.0% $1.07 Ocular 10.0% $1.06 | $12.25 +197.9% | $5.02 +22.3% | 50.0% | +102.8% | $4.11 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 25.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.22 Liquidation 10.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 10.0% $0.74 Ocular 10.0% $0.73 | $6.12 +163.6% | $2.51 +8.4% | 25.0% | +89.6% | $2.32 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 25.0% $5.85 Liquidation 10.0% $2.49 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.22 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.96 Continuum 10.0% $0.93 Angel Eyes 10.0% $0.85 | $5.85 +136.9% | $2.63 +6.3% | 35.0% | +76.0% | $2.47 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 35.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 35.0% $3.20 Liquidation 6.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 6.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 6.0% $0.74 Ocular 6.0% $0.73 | $6.12 +123.2% | $3.52 +28.4% | 70.0% | +73.4% | $2.74 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 30.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 30.0% $3.20 Liquidation 8.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 8.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 8.0% $0.74 Ocular 8.0% $0.73 | $6.12 +142.7% | $3.14 +24.5% | 60.0% | +82.0% | $2.52 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.28 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Angel Eyes 12.0% $1.07 Continuum 12.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +224.8% | $4.30 +14.2% | 52.0% | +107.3% | $3.77 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.28 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Angel Eyes 14.0% $1.07 Continuum 14.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +260.1% | $3.64 +7.2% | 44.0% | +109.8% | $3.40 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.28 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 16.0% $2.14 Ocular 16.0% $2.05 | $12.25 +203.8% | $4.23 +5.1% | 36.0% | +79.9% | $4.03 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  30.0% $27.17 Ice Coaled  23.3% $11.85 Smoking Kills  23.3% $10.43 Mirror Mosaic  23.3% $9.64 | $27.17 +117.0% | $15.60 +24.6% | 30.0% | +60.8% | $12.52 | — |