The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Caged
1x $0.20
Bullfrog
1x $0.26
MAGnitude
1x $0.36
Broken Record
2x $0.38
Grip Tape
2x $0.34
The Daily Deagle
2x $0.43
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
25.0% $12.25
Trace Lock
25.0% $4.48
Liquidation
10.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
10.0% $1.13
Ocular
10.0% $1.11
Angel Eyes
10.0% $1.07
Max Win
$12.25 (+184.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.02 (+16.5%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+102.2%
Cost
$4.31
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.31
Ask Price EV $5.02 (+16.5%)
Bid Price EV $4.63 (+7.3%)
Ask Profit $0.71 (+16.5%)
Bid Profit $0.32 (+7.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.39 (+9.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.71
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.32
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $12.25 (+184.1%)
Worst Case $1.07 (-75.2%)
Volatility +102.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$4.05
Avg Loss -$2.63
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.07 (-75.2%)
Std Dev $4.40
Avg Norm Float 0.1989
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 142h 16m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Field-Tested
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | MAGnitude
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 56M 58S //TOTAL COST $4.31 //ASK PRICE EV $5.02 //BID PRICE EV $4.63 //ASK PROFIT $0.71 (+16.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.32 (+7.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +102.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$12.25
+$7.94
+184.1%
$11.36
+$7.05
+163.6%
$0.89
7.2%
—
PAPER WIN
25.0%
$4.48
+$0.17
+3.9%
$4.10
-$0.21
-4.9%
$0.38
8.4%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$4.01
-$0.30
-6.9%
$3.61
-$0.70
-16.2%
$0.40
10.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.13
-$3.18
-73.8%
$1.04
-$3.27
-75.9%
$0.09
8.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.11
-$3.20
-74.4%
$1.01
-$3.30
-76.6%
$0.10
8.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.07
-$3.24
-75.1%
$1.00
-$3.31
-76.8%
$0.07
6.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.07
-$3.24
-75.2%
$0.95
-$3.36
-78.0%
$0.12
11.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.149175,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.13923,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.4775,
"optimistic_value": 4.46,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:25.405946Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 1.0745,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:16.128836Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 4.0145,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:12.174520Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 1.1305,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T20:16:13.485553Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 1.1055,
"optimistic_value": 1.06,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:50.131481Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 1.067,
"optimistic_value": 1.06,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:18.889490Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0fd93c36eb25b2157862f518",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "518620235869812748",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:38.235152Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "505108692500795132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:09:07.801760Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-e8947585ba24",
"listing_id": "506235389469351588",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | MAGnitude",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8947585ba24.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:24.291578Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "512990736599427227",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:36.794189Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "641341944860654767",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:36.794189Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "500605889841196571",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:44.720257Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "490472625090080763",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:57.071423Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "491598690699020822",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:57.071423Z"
},
{
"price": 0.64,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620122757210468",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:11.788201Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "524249735517932847",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:54.971728Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 25.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 25.0% $14.83 Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 10.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 10.0% $2.14 Ocular 10.0% $2.05 | $26.93 +152.6% | $12.05 +13.1% | 50.0% | +88.3% | $10.66 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 25.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.24 Liquidation 10.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 10.0% $0.74 Ocular 10.0% $0.73 | $6.12 +163.6% | $2.52 +8.5% | 25.0% | +89.6% | $2.32 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 25.0% $5.85 Liquidation 10.0% $2.49 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.24 Cat Fight 10.0% $0.96 Continuum 10.0% $0.93 Angel Eyes 10.0% $0.85 | $5.85 +130.3% | $2.63 +3.5% | 25.0% | +73.8% | $2.54 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 35.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 35.0% $3.20 Liquidation 6.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 6.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 6.0% $0.74 Ocular 6.0% $0.73 | $6.12 +131.7% | $3.52 +33.2% | 70.0% | +76.2% | $2.64 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 30.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 30.0% $3.20 Liquidation 8.0% $1.36 Cat Fight 8.0% $0.80 Angel Eyes 8.0% $0.74 Ocular 8.0% $0.73 | $6.12 +148.6% | $3.14 +27.5% | 60.0% | +84.0% | $2.46 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.51 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Ocular 12.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 12.0% $1.07 | $12.25 +219.7% | $4.36 +13.8% | 52.0% | +105.3% | $3.83 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.51 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Ocular 14.0% $1.11 Angel Eyes 14.0% $1.07 | $12.25 +259.1% | $3.69 +8.1% | 44.0% | +109.3% | $3.41 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.51 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 16.0% $2.14 Ocular 16.0% $2.05 | $12.25 +203.1% | $4.26 +5.4% | 36.0% | +79.7% | $4.04 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  20.0% $27.17 Ice Coaled  26.7% $11.85 Smoking Kills  26.7% $10.43 Mirror Mosaic  26.7% $9.67 | $27.17 +139.0% | $13.95 +22.7% | 46.7% | +58.6% | $11.37 | — |