The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Grip Tape
1x $0.34
Cobalt Paisley
5x $0.29
Yeti Camo
1x $0.32
Royal Baroque
1x $0.36
Mint Fan
2x $0.37
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
45.0% $6.93
Breakthrough
5.0% $5.85
Trace Lock
5.0% $2.17
Royal Guard
45.0% $1.36
Max Win
$6.93 (+63.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.13 (-2.6%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+63.9%
Cost
$4.24
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.24
Ask Price EV $4.13 (-2.6%)
Bid Price EV $3.43 (-19.2%)
Ask Profit $-0.11 (-2.6%)
Bid Profit $-0.81 (-19.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.70 (+16.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.11
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.81
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $6.93 (+63.5%)
Worst Case $1.36 (-68.0%)
Volatility +63.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$2.58
Avg Loss -$2.80
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.36 (-68.0%)
Std Dev $2.71
Avg Norm Float 0.4403
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 145h 12m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 49S //TOTAL COST $4.24 //ASK PRICE EV $4.13 //BID PRICE EV $3.43 //ASK PROFIT $-0.11 (-2.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.81 (-19.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $6.93 //VOLATILITY +63.9% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
45.0%
$6.93
+$2.69
+63.5%
$5.76
+$1.52
+35.8%
$1.17
16.9%
—
WIN
5.0%
$5.85
+$1.61
+38.0%
$4.91
+$0.67
+15.8%
$0.94
16.1%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$2.17
-$2.07
-48.8%
$2.14
-$2.10
-49.5%
$0.03
1.4%
—
NUKE
45.0%
$1.36
-$2.88
-68.0%
$1.07
-$3.17
-74.8%
$0.29
21.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.3302175,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.931,
"optimistic_value": 6.84,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 5.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.264174,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.3575,
"optimistic_value": 1.34,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:44.881028Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.3302175,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.308203,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.1705,
"optimistic_value": 2.16,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:45:10.287711Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0d5b5f93169cf5ac2e3b9983",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "497228190142082801",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:58.437797Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "492724590626831085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:49.964098Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "492724538182088361",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:17.959730Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "493850490550033732",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:04:42.570162Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "492724590626777121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:02.478143Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "520872088107138432",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:04:39.398848Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "525375688037057371",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:55.434619Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "518620288314367912",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:04:39.398848Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "517493591323081822",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:55.434619Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "642467210058722212",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:55.434619Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:1+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 5.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 5.0% $14.73 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.64 | $38.92 +81.0% | $25.74 +19.7% | 50.0% | +57.0% | $21.50 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 5.0% $12.25 Royal Guard 45.0% $5.77 Trace Lock 5.0% $4.63 | $18.08 +79.3% | $11.57 +14.8% | 50.0% | +60.0% | $10.08 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 20.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 20.0% $3.20 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.36 | $6.94 +111.0% | $4.35 +32.3% | 50.0% | +71.9% | $3.29 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 35.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 35.0% $3.20 Royal Guard 15.0% $1.36 | $6.94 +96.7% | $4.50 +27.6% | 50.0% | +55.8% | $3.53 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 15.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 15.0% $3.20 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.36 | $6.94 +100.1% | $4.30 +24.0% | 50.0% | +71.5% | $3.47 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 10.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 10.0% $14.73 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.64 | $38.92 +86.1% | $25.19 +20.4% | 50.0% | +56.6% | $20.92 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.45 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.43 | $18.08 +148.6% | $8.68 +19.4% | 50.0% | +59.6% | $7.27 | — |