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The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Battle-Scarred -0.5%Factory New -7.8%Field-Tested +14.8%Minimal Wear +19.7%Well-Worn -2.6%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Grip Tape
P2000 | Grip Tape
1x $0.76
Royal Baroque
P2000 | Royal Baroque
4x $0.36
Mint Fan
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
2x $0.37
Reef Grief
P90 | Reef Grief
3x $0.96
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
45.0% $18.08
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
5.0% $12.25
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
45.0% $5.77
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
5.0% $4.63
Max Win
$18.08 (+79.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$11.57 (+14.8%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+60.0%
Cost
$10.08
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGE
Total Cost $10.08
Ask Price EV $11.57 (+14.8%)
Bid Price EV $9.92 (-1.6%)
Ask Profit $1.49 (+14.8%)
Bid Profit $-0.16 (-1.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.66 (+16.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.49
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.16
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $18.08 (+79.3%)
Worst Case $4.63 (-54.0%)
Volatility +60.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$7.41
Avg Loss -$4.43
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.63 (-54.0%)
Std Dev $6.05
Avg Norm Float 0.1974
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 144h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)
$0.96 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Minimal Wear
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)
$1.09 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)
$1.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)
$1.32 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)
$1.40 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 21S //TOTAL COST $10.08 //ASK PRICE EV $11.57 //BID PRICE EV $9.92 //ASK PROFIT $1.49 (+14.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.16 (-1.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +60.0% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 1,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 9,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.14808,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 18.0765,
      "optimistic_value": 17.94,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 15.21,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.118464,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 5.766,
      "optimistic_value": 5.64,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 5.11,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:07:52.974266Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.05,
      "output_float": 0.14808,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
      "optimistic_value": 12.14,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 11.36,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.05,
      "output_float": 0.138208,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 4.6325,
      "optimistic_value": 4.51,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 4.1,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:04.381304Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_0d5b5f93169cf5ac2e3b9983",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.76,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "506235389470089408",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:16:17.311700Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "492724590626777121",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:02.478143Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "520872088107138432",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:04:39.398848Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.96,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "506235389470145352",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:00.114479Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.07,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "493850490550528768",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:25.819945Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.09,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "526501587737996945",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:44.198303Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "630083017718303094",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:00.114479Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.32,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "630083017713403458",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:00.114479Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "498354037509124375",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:25.819945Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.44,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "652601015909084844",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:25.819945Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:1+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
45.0% $38.92
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
5.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
5.0% $14.73
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
45.0% $13.64
$38.92
+81.0%
$25.74
+19.7%
50.0%+57.0%$21.50—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
30.0% $6.94
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
20.0% $6.12
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
20.0% $3.20
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
30.0% $1.36
$6.94
+111.0%
$4.35
+32.3%
50.0%+71.9%$3.29—
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
15.0% $6.94
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
35.0% $6.12
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
35.0% $3.20
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
15.0% $1.36
$6.94
+96.7%
$4.50
+27.6%
50.0%+55.8%$3.53—
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
35.0% $6.94
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
15.0% $6.12
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
15.0% $3.20
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
35.0% $1.36
$6.94
+100.1%
$4.30
+24.0%
50.0%+71.5%$3.47—
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
40.0% $38.92
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
10.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
10.0% $14.73
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
40.0% $13.64
$38.92
+86.1%
$25.19
+20.4%
50.0%+56.6%$20.92—
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Midnight Laminate
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate
5.0% $18.08
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
45.0% $12.25
Royal Guard
USP-S | Royal Guard
5.0% $5.45
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
45.0% $4.43
$18.08
+148.6%
$8.68
+19.4%
50.0%+59.6%$7.27—
FS

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