The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Creep
1x $1.43
Royal Baroque
5x $1.40
Yeti Camo
1x $2.01
Reef Grief
2x $2.25
Cobalt Paisley
1x $3.65
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
45.0% $38.92
Breakthrough
5.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
5.0% $14.73
Royal Guard
45.0% $13.64
Max Win
$38.92 (+39.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$25.74 (-7.8%)
Win %
45.0%
Volatility
+43.9%
Cost
$27.91
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $27.91
Ask Price EV $25.74 (-7.8%)
Bid Price EV $23.42 (-16.1%)
Ask Profit $-2.17 (-7.8%)
Bid Profit $-4.49 (-16.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.32 (+8.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.17
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.49
Risk
Win Probability 45.0%
Loss Probability 55.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+39.5%)
Worst Case $13.64 (-51.1%)
Volatility +43.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$11.01
Avg Loss -$12.96
Bottom 5% Outcome $13.64 (-51.1%)
Std Dev $12.26
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 97h 42m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.40 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.57 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$2.01 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Factory New
$3.65 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$4.65 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 16S //TOTAL COST $27.91 //ASK PRICE EV $25.74 //BID PRICE EV $23.42 //ASK PROFIT $-2.17 (-7.8%) //BID PROFIT $-4.49 (-16.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 45.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +43.9% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
45.0%
$38.92
+$11.01
+39.5%
$34.38
+$6.47
+23.2%
$4.54
11.7%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$26.93
-$0.98
-3.5%
$26.63
-$1.28
-4.6%
$0.30
1.1%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$14.73
-$13.18
-47.2%
$13.15
-$14.76
-52.9%
$1.58
10.7%
—
NUKE
45.0%
$13.64
-$14.27
-51.1%
$13.24
-$14.67
-52.6%
$0.40
2.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.052425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.04194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.638499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 13.53,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:42.815080Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.052425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.04893,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.7335,
"optimistic_value": 14.66,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:24.219267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0d5b5f93169cf5ac2e3b9983",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "507361289453312365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:37.051667Z"
},
{
"price": 1.4,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "498354037509124375",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:25.819945Z"
},
{
"price": 1.57,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "507361289452175017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:25.819945Z"
},
{
"price": 2.01,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "505109437007083916",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:21.899950Z"
},
{
"price": 2.25,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "507361289453613217",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:49.117025Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "525375688036759327",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:49.117025Z"
},
{
"price": 3.65,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "619949307134804143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:49.810387Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "640216044966789251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:01.299613Z"
},
{
"price": 4.65,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "503983423966579591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:01.299613Z"
},
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "506234592363569076",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:01.299613Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:1+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 5.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 5.0% $14.73 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.64 | $38.92 +81.0% | $25.74 +19.7% | 50.0% | +57.0% | $21.50 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 5.0% $12.25 Royal Guard 45.0% $5.77 Trace Lock 5.0% $4.63 | $18.08 +79.3% | $11.57 +14.8% | 50.0% | +60.0% | $10.08 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 20.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 20.0% $3.20 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.36 | $6.94 +111.0% | $4.35 +32.3% | 50.0% | +71.9% | $3.29 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 35.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 35.0% $3.20 Royal Guard 15.0% $1.36 | $6.94 +96.7% | $4.50 +27.6% | 50.0% | +55.8% | $3.53 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 15.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 15.0% $3.20 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.36 | $6.94 +100.1% | $4.30 +24.0% | 50.0% | +71.5% | $3.47 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 10.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 10.0% $14.73 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.64 | $38.92 +86.1% | $25.19 +20.4% | 50.0% | +56.6% | $20.92 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.45 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.43 | $18.08 +148.6% | $8.68 +19.4% | 50.0% | +59.6% | $7.27 | — |