The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Aeolian Light
1x $0.25
Cobalt Paisley
4x $0.29
Yeti Camo
1x $0.32
Royal Baroque
2x $0.36
Mint Fan
2x $0.39
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
45.0% $6.94
Breakthrough
5.0% $6.12
Trace Lock
5.0% $3.20
Royal Guard
45.0% $1.38
Max Win
$6.94 (+107.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.21 (+26.1%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+80.3%
Cost
$3.34
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.34
Ask Price EV $4.21 (+26.1%)
Bid Price EV $3.58 (+7.2%)
Ask Profit $0.87 (+26.1%)
Bid Profit $0.24 (+7.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.63 (+19.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.87
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.24
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $6.94 (+107.9%)
Worst Case $1.38 (-58.6%)
Volatility +80.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 45.0%
Avg Win +$3.52
Avg Loss -$1.78
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.38 (-58.6%)
Std Dev $2.68
Avg Norm Float 0.5827
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 7m
Oldest Output Price 144h 22m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 57M 56S //TOTAL COST $3.34 //ASK PRICE EV $4.21 //BID PRICE EV $3.58 //ASK PROFIT $0.87 (+26.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.24 (+7.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $6.94 //VOLATILITY +80.3% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
45.0%
$6.94
+$3.60
+107.9%
$6.03
+$2.69
+80.5%
$0.91
13.2%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$6.12
+$2.78
+83.1%
$5.33
+$1.99
+59.6%
$0.79
12.9%
—
LOSS THIN BID
5.0%
$3.20
-$0.14
-4.3%
$2.35
-$0.99
-29.6%
$0.85
26.5%
—
NUKE
45.0%
$1.38
-$1.96
-58.6%
$1.07
-$2.27
-68.0%
$0.31
22.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.43703249999999993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.9435,
"optimistic_value": 6.8,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 6.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:56:54.599031Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.34962599999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.3835,
"optimistic_value": 1.38,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:44.881028Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.43703249999999993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 6.1165,
"optimistic_value": 5.91,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 5.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:27.628648Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.40789699999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 3.1965,
"optimistic_value": 3.06,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:50:58.816197Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0d5b5f93169cf5ac2e3b9983",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "526501587737062601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.662374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "514116688949730030",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:17.669375Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "512990736599751659",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:17.669375Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "525375522204095143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:17.669375Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "492724538182088361",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:48.467459Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "493850490550033732",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:39.967163Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "493850490550208404",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:32.902992Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "518620288314033904",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:32.902992Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "510738989040763342",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:55.364470Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "503983589619410563",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:55.364470Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:1+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 5.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 5.0% $14.79 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.85 | $38.92 +80.9% | $25.83 +20.1% | 50.0% | +56.5% | $21.51 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 5.0% $12.25 Royal Guard 45.0% $5.73 Trace Lock 5.0% $4.52 | $18.08 +81.5% | $11.55 +16.0% | 50.0% | +61.0% | $9.96 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $6.93 Breakthrough 5.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 5.0% $2.22 Royal Guard 45.0% $1.38 | $6.93 +77.7% | $4.15 +6.3% | 50.0% | +69.1% | $3.90 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 15.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 15.0% $3.20 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.36 | $6.94 +117.7% | $4.30 +34.9% | 65.0% | +77.7% | $3.19 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 10.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 10.0% $3.20 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.36 | $6.94 +113.0% | $4.25 +30.4% | 50.0% | +79.4% | $3.26 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 16.0% $3.37 Royal Baroque 16.0% $2.64 The Daily Deagle  5.0% $2.37 Reef Grief  16.0% $2.27 Yeti Camo 16.0% $1.89 Cobalt Paisley 16.0% $1.11 | $3.37 +114.9% | $2.05 +30.3% | 69.0% | +44.8% | $1.57 | — |