The 2018 Inferno Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Check Engine
1x $1.11
Aeolian Light
1x $0.27
Creep
5x $0.28
The Daily Deagle
3x $0.43
↓
Possible Outputs
Fade
3.3% $12.91
Breakthrough
45.0% $5.61
Safety Net
3.3% $4.25
Trace Lock
45.0% $2.31
Vino Primo
3.3% $1.26
Max Win
$12.91 (+183.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.18 (-8.1%)
Win %
48.3%
Volatility
+50.7%
Cost
$4.55
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.55
Ask Price EV $4.18 (-8.1%)
Bid Price EV $3.76 (-17.3%)
Ask Profit $-0.37 (-8.1%)
Bid Profit $-0.79 (-17.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.42 (+9.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.37
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.79
Risk
Win Probability 48.3%
Loss Probability 51.7%
Best Case $12.91 (+183.7%)
Worst Case $1.26 (-72.4%)
Volatility +50.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.3%
Avg Win +$1.57
Avg Loss -$2.18
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.31 (-49.1%)
Std Dev $2.31
Avg Norm Float 0.4452
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 153h 21m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
USP-S | Check Engine
—
Well-Worn
$1.11 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 38M 11S //TOTAL COST $4.55 //ASK PRICE EV $4.18 //BID PRICE EV $3.76 //ASK PROFIT $-0.37 (-8.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.79 (-17.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 48.3% //BEST CASE $12.91 //VOLATILITY +50.7% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
3.3%
$12.91
+$8.36
+183.7%
$11.56
+$7.01
+154.1%
$1.35
10.4%
—
WIN
45.0%
$5.61
+$1.06
+23.4%
$5.00
+$0.45
+9.9%
$0.61
10.9%
—
LOSS
3.3%
$4.25
-$0.30
-6.7%
$3.98
-$0.57
-12.5%
$0.27
6.3%
—
NUKE
45.0%
$2.31
-$2.24
-49.1%
$2.13
-$2.42
-53.2%
$0.18
8.0%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$1.26
-$3.29
-72.4%
$1.06
-$3.49
-76.7%
$0.20
15.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.33387,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.6135,
"optimistic_value": 5.54,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:38.278338Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.311612,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.314,
"optimistic_value": 2.23,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:43.497152Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.267096,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d721d2a6a01c",
"realistic_value": 4.247,
"optimistic_value": 4.1,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Safety Net",
"conservative_value": 3.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:15.950301Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d721d2a6a01c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.11129,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7036be1d6dd2",
"realistic_value": 12.908,
"optimistic_value": 12.67,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Fade",
"conservative_value": 11.56,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:22:38.591146Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7036be1d6dd2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.44516,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9cd9ae26b864",
"realistic_value": 1.2575,
"optimistic_value": 1.24,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Vino Primo",
"conservative_value": 1.06,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Vino Primo (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:01:53.795097Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9cd9ae26b864.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0b903cb34509e0f6a06b87e4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.11,
"skin_id": "skin-a2c7bfcb6607",
"listing_id": "517494441498263830",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Check Engine (Well-Worn)",
"name": "USP-S | Check Engine",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a2c7bfcb6607.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:33:59.308516Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "529879287550318068",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:40.316719Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "511864888986026637",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:37.658777Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "508487242222263242",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:37.658777Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "498354142900741891",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:44.147107Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "511864941882503121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:44.147107Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "523123940969688190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:29:18.573194Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "510738989040034450",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:29:18.573194Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "494976224705666562",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:29:18.573194Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "516368541589358198",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:44.147107Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-inferno-2:1+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Fade 3.3% $50.33 Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Safety Net 3.3% $6.98 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.93 Vino Primo 3.3% $1.64 | $50.33 +537.1% | $9.61 +21.6% | 48.3% | +106.0% | $7.90 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Fade 3.3% $50.33 Safety Net 3.3% $35.52 Breakthrough 45.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 45.0% $13.97 Vino Primo 3.3% $5.01 | $50.33 +169.9% | $21.49 +15.2% | 51.7% | +48.8% | $18.65 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Fade 6.7% $50.33 Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Safety Net 6.7% $6.98 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.94 Vino Primo 6.7% $1.64 | $50.33 +466.2% | $10.73 +20.6% | 46.7% | +125.8% | $8.89 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Fade 10.0% $50.33 Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Safety Net 10.0% $6.98 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.93 Vino Primo 10.0% $1.64 | $50.33 +394.4% | $11.84 +16.3% | 45.0% | +130.9% | $10.18 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Fade 13.3% $50.33 Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Safety Net 13.3% $6.98 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.93 Vino Primo 13.3% $1.64 | $50.33 +332.4% | $12.95 +11.3% | 43.3% | +129.6% | $11.64 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×9+The Achroma Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Vino Primo 30.0% $55.48 Fade 30.0% $50.33 Safety Net 30.0% $35.52 Breakthrough 5.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 5.0% $13.90 | $55.48 +29.3% | $44.45 +3.6% | 60.0% | +26.8% | $42.92 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Converter  12.5% $3.73 Hand Brake  12.5% $2.00 Check Engine 12.5% $1.96 Brake Light  12.5% $1.79 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $0.91 Creep 12.5% $0.87 | $3.73 +153.7% | $1.59 +8.3% | 50.0% | +58.4% | $1.47 | — |