The 2018 Inferno Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items

Factory New -13.9%Field-Tested +21.6%Minimal Wear +15.2%Well-Worn -8.1%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested

Inputs

Brake Light

1x $1.85

Creep

3x $0.34

The Daily Deagle

1x $0.43

Aeolian Light

2x $0.70

Grip Tape

3x $0.73

↓

Possible Outputs

Fade

3.3% $50.33

Breakthrough

45.0% $12.05

Safety Net

3.3% $6.98

Trace Lock

45.0% $4.93

Vino Primo

3.3% $1.64

Max Win

$50.33 (+537.1%)

EV (ROI %)

$9.61 (+21.6%)

Win %

48.3%

Volatility

+106.0%

Cost

$7.90

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $7.90

Ask Price EV $9.61 (+21.6%)

Bid Price EV $8.48 (+7.4%)

Ask Profit $1.71 (+21.6%)

Bid Profit $0.58 (+7.4%)

Liquidity Gap $1.12 (+14.2%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.71

Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.58

Risk

Win Probability 48.3%

Loss Probability 51.7%

Best Case $50.33 (+537.1%)

Worst Case $1.64 (-79.2%)

Volatility +106.0%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.3%

Avg Win +$6.79

Avg Loss -$3.05

Bottom 5% Outcome $4.93 (-37.6%)

Std Dev $8.38

Avg Norm Float 0.1994

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 22m

Oldest Output Price 153h 23m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Sawed-Off | Brake Light

—

Factory New

$1.85 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Field-Tested

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Field-Tested

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle

—

Field-Tested

$0.43 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Minimal Wear

$0.70 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Minimal Wear

$0.73 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Minimal Wear

$0.80 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Minimal Wear

$0.88 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Minimal Wear

$0.88 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Minimal Wear

$0.93 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 41S //TOTAL COST $7.90 //ASK PRICE EV $9.61 //BID PRICE EV $8.48 //ASK PROFIT $1.71 (+21.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.58 (+7.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 48.3% //BEST CASE $50.33 //VOLATILITY +106.0% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 1,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 9,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.14954250000000002,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 12.049,
      "optimistic_value": 11.93,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 10.32,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:28.312731Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.139573,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 4.9319999999999995,
      "optimistic_value": 4.89,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 4.28,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:33.382302Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.119634,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d721d2a6a01c",
      "realistic_value": 6.982,
      "optimistic_value": 6.94,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Safety Net",
      "conservative_value": 6.07,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:00.593594Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d721d2a6a01c.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.0498475,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-7036be1d6dd2",
      "realistic_value": 50.3315,
      "optimistic_value": 50.23,
      "output_full_name": "MP7 | Fade",
      "conservative_value": 49.73,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Fade (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:15.881044Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7036be1d6dd2.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.19939,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9cd9ae26b864",
      "realistic_value": 1.6404999999999998,
      "optimistic_value": 1.63,
      "output_full_name": "P250 | Vino Primo",
      "conservative_value": 1.58,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Vino Primo (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:08.505104Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9cd9ae26b864.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_0b903cb34509e0f6a06b87e4",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 1.85,
      "skin_id": "skin-f1e77412769d",
      "listing_id": "491598743580426734",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
      "market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)",
      "name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1e77412769d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:58.124965Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "498354142900741891",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:44.147107Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "511864941882503121",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:44.147107Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.43,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "523123940969688190",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:29:18.573194Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "502857742727258344",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:54.260836Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.73,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "509613142168526763",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:42.456128Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.8,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "524249840859550539",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:42.456128Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.88,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "505109489448172712",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:42.456128Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.88,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "624453518109138726",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:33.525785Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.93,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "516368488725054662",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:54.260836Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-inferno-2:1+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:9"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Fade 3.3% $50.33 Safety Net 3.3% $35.52 Breakthrough 45.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 45.0% $13.97 Vino Primo 3.3% $5.01	$50.33 +169.9%	$21.49 +15.2%	51.7%	+48.8%	$18.65	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Fade 6.7% $50.33 Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Safety Net 6.7% $6.98 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.94 Vino Primo 6.7% $1.64	$50.33 +466.2%	$10.73 +20.6%	46.7%	+125.8%	$8.89	—
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Fade 10.0% $50.33 Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Safety Net 10.0% $6.98 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.93 Vino Primo 10.0% $1.64	$50.33 +394.4%	$11.84 +16.3%	45.0%	+130.9%	$10.18	—
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Fade 13.3% $50.33 Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Safety Net 13.3% $6.98 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.93 Vino Primo 13.3% $1.64	$50.33 +332.4%	$12.95 +11.3%	43.3%	+129.6%	$11.64	—
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×9+The Achroma Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New	Vino Primo 30.0% $55.48 Fade 30.0% $50.33 Safety Net 30.0% $35.52 Breakthrough 5.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 5.0% $13.90	$55.48 +29.3%	$44.45 +3.6%	60.0%	+26.8%	$42.92	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested	Converter 12.5% $3.73 Hand Brake 12.5% $2.00 Check Engine 12.5% $1.96 Brake Light 12.5% $1.79 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $0.91 Creep 12.5% $0.87	$3.73 +153.7%	$1.59 +8.3%	50.0%	+58.4%	$1.47	—