The 2018 Inferno Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items

Factory New -13.9%Field-Tested +21.6%Minimal Wear +15.2%Well-Worn -8.1%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New

Inputs

Brake Light

1x $6.76

Aeolian Light

3x $0.94

Creep

2x $1.75

Grip Tape

2x $2.14

The Daily Deagle

2x $3.00

↓

Possible Outputs

Vino Primo

3.3% $55.48

Fade

3.3% $50.33

Safety Net

3.3% $35.52

Breakthrough

45.0% $27.06

Trace Lock

45.0% $13.97

Max Win

$55.48 (+106.2%)

EV (ROI %)

$23.17 (-13.9%)

Win %

55.0%

Volatility

+38.9%

Cost

$26.91

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $26.91

Ask Price EV $23.17 (-13.9%)

Bid Price EV $22.50 (-16.4%)

Ask Profit $-3.74 (-13.9%)

Bid Profit $-4.41 (-16.4%)

Liquidity Gap $0.67 (+2.5%)

Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.74

Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.41

Risk

Win Probability 55.0%

Loss Probability 45.0%

Best Case $55.48 (+106.2%)

Worst Case $13.97 (-48.1%)

Volatility +38.9%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 45.0%

Avg Win +$3.79

Avg Loss -$12.94

Bottom 5% Outcome $13.97 (-48.1%)

Std Dev $10.46

Avg Norm Float 0.0699

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 22m

Oldest Output Price 153h 49m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Sawed-Off | Brake Light

—

Factory New

$6.76 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Minimal Wear

$0.94 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Minimal Wear

$1.69 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Minimal Wear

$1.75 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Minimal Wear

$1.88 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Factory New

$1.91 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Factory New

$2.14 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Factory New

$2.35 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle

—

Factory New

$3.00 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle

—

Factory New

$4.49 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 30S //TOTAL COST $26.91 //ASK PRICE EV $23.17 //BID PRICE EV $22.50 //ASK PROFIT $-3.74 (-13.9%) //BID PROFIT $-4.41 (-16.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 55.0% //BEST CASE $55.48 //VOLATILITY +38.9% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 1,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 9,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.05241,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 27.057000000000002,
      "optimistic_value": 27.05,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 26.47,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:17.581071Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.048915999999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 13.971,
      "optimistic_value": 13.74,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 13.19,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:36.283688Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.041928,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d721d2a6a01c",
      "realistic_value": 35.519,
      "optimistic_value": 35.26,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Safety Net",
      "conservative_value": 35.25,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:42.808592Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d721d2a6a01c.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.01747,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-7036be1d6dd2",
      "realistic_value": 50.3315,
      "optimistic_value": 50.23,
      "output_full_name": "MP7 | Fade",
      "conservative_value": 49.73,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Fade (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:15.881044Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7036be1d6dd2.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.06988,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9cd9ae26b864",
      "realistic_value": 55.476,
      "optimistic_value": 55,
      "output_full_name": "P250 | Vino Primo",
      "conservative_value": 54.69,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Vino Primo (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:00:51.909586Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9cd9ae26b864.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_0b903cb34509e0f6a06b87e4",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 6.76,
      "skin_id": "skin-f1e77412769d",
      "listing_id": "625578711449083890",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
      "market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)",
      "name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1e77412769d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:58.124965Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.94,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "518620288313427412",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:54.260836Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.69,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "642467916661695005",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:54.260836Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.75,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "503983642532704231",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:33.525785Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.88,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "524248990833803271",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:33.525785Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.91,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "512990841908585123",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:42.449510Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.14,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "526501640651063345",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:37.410883Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.35,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "518620341243286300",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:37.410883Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "506235389469302484",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:29:01.492072Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "498354142900748443",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:29:01.492072Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-inferno-2:1+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:9"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Fade 3.3% $50.33 Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Safety Net 3.3% $6.98 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.93 Vino Primo 3.3% $1.64	$50.33 +537.1%	$9.61 +21.6%	48.3%	+106.0%	$7.90	—
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Fade 3.3% $50.33 Safety Net 3.3% $35.52 Breakthrough 45.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 45.0% $13.97 Vino Primo 3.3% $5.01	$50.33 +169.9%	$21.49 +15.2%	51.7%	+48.8%	$18.65	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Fade 6.7% $50.33 Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Safety Net 6.7% $6.98 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.94 Vino Primo 6.7% $1.64	$50.33 +466.2%	$10.73 +20.6%	46.7%	+125.8%	$8.89	—
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Fade 10.0% $50.33 Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Safety Net 10.0% $6.98 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.93 Vino Primo 10.0% $1.64	$50.33 +394.4%	$11.84 +16.3%	45.0%	+130.9%	$10.18	—
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Fade 13.3% $50.33 Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Safety Net 13.3% $6.98 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.93 Vino Primo 13.3% $1.64	$50.33 +332.4%	$12.95 +11.3%	43.3%	+129.6%	$11.64	—
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×9+The Achroma Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New	Vino Primo 30.0% $55.48 Fade 30.0% $50.33 Safety Net 30.0% $35.52 Breakthrough 5.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 5.0% $13.90	$55.48 +29.3%	$44.45 +3.6%	60.0%	+26.8%	$42.92	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested	Converter 12.5% $3.73 Hand Brake 12.5% $2.00 Check Engine 12.5% $1.96 Brake Light 12.5% $1.79 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $0.91 Creep 12.5% $0.87	$3.73 +153.7%	$1.59 +8.3%	50.0%	+58.4%	$1.47	—