The 2018 Inferno Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Brake Light
1x $3.07
Grip Tape
3x $0.73
Creep
3x $0.88
Aeolian Light
2x $0.94
The Daily Deagle
1x $3.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Fade
3.3% $50.33
Safety Net
3.3% $35.52
Breakthrough
45.0% $27.06
Trace Lock
45.0% $13.97
Vino Primo
3.3% $5.01
Max Win
$50.33 (+169.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$21.49 (+15.2%)
Win %
51.7%
Volatility
+48.8%
Cost
$18.65
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $18.65
Ask Price EV $21.49 (+15.2%)
Bid Price EV $20.85 (+11.8%)
Ask Profit $2.84 (+15.2%)
Bid Profit $2.20 (+11.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.65 (+3.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.84
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.20
Risk
Win Probability 51.7%
Loss Probability 48.3%
Best Case $50.33 (+169.9%)
Worst Case $5.01 (-73.1%)
Volatility +48.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.3%
Avg Win +$10.45
Avg Loss -$5.30
Bottom 5% Outcome $13.97 (-25.1%)
Std Dev $9.10
Avg Norm Float 0.0933
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 153h 49m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Brake Light
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$0.88 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$1.91 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.35 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 41S //TOTAL COST $18.65 //ASK PRICE EV $21.49 //BID PRICE EV $20.85 //ASK PROFIT $2.84 (+15.2%) //BID PROFIT $2.20 (+11.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 51.7% //BEST CASE $50.33 //VOLATILITY +48.8% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
3.3%
$50.33
+$31.68
+169.9%
$49.73
+$31.08
+166.6%
$0.60
1.2%
—
BIG WIN
3.3%
$35.52
+$16.87
+90.5%
$35.25
+$16.60
+89.0%
$0.27
0.8%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
45.0%
$27.06
+$8.41
+45.1%
$26.47
+$7.82
+41.9%
$0.59
2.2%
—
LOSS
45.0%
$13.97
-$4.68
-25.1%
$13.19
-$5.46
-29.3%
$0.78
5.6%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$5.01
-$13.64
-73.1%
$4.96
-$13.69
-73.4%
$0.05
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.069975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 27.057000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 27.05,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:17.581071Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.06530999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 13.971,
"optimistic_value": 13.74,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:36.283688Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.055979999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d721d2a6a01c",
"realistic_value": 35.519,
"optimistic_value": 35.26,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Safety Net",
"conservative_value": 35.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:42.808592Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d721d2a6a01c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.023325,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7036be1d6dd2",
"realistic_value": 50.3315,
"optimistic_value": 50.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Fade",
"conservative_value": 49.73,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:15.881044Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7036be1d6dd2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9cd9ae26b864",
"realistic_value": 5.0085,
"optimistic_value": 4.97,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Vino Primo",
"conservative_value": 4.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Vino Primo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:13.870238Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9cd9ae26b864.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0b903cb34509e0f6a06b87e4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-f1e77412769d",
"listing_id": "509613036860956359",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1e77412769d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:58.124965Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "509613142168526763",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:42.456128Z"
},
{
"price": 0.88,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "624453518109138726",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:33.525785Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313427412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:54.260836Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "503983642532704231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:33.525785Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "524248990833803271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:33.525785Z"
},
{
"price": 1.91,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "512990841908585123",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:42.449510Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "526501640651063345",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:37.410883Z"
},
{
"price": 2.35,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620341243286300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:37.410883Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:29:01.492072Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-inferno-2:1+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Fade 3.3% $50.33 Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Safety Net 3.3% $6.98 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.93 Vino Primo 3.3% $1.64 | $50.33 +537.1% | $9.61 +21.6% | 48.3% | +106.0% | $7.90 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Fade 6.7% $50.33 Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Safety Net 6.7% $6.98 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.94 Vino Primo 6.7% $1.64 | $50.33 +466.2% | $10.73 +20.6% | 46.7% | +125.8% | $8.89 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Fade 10.0% $50.33 Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Safety Net 10.0% $6.98 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.93 Vino Primo 10.0% $1.64 | $50.33 +394.4% | $11.84 +16.3% | 45.0% | +130.9% | $10.18 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Fade 13.3% $50.33 Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Safety Net 13.3% $6.98 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.93 Vino Primo 13.3% $1.64 | $50.33 +332.4% | $12.95 +11.3% | 43.3% | +129.6% | $11.64 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×9+The Achroma Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Vino Primo 30.0% $55.48 Fade 30.0% $50.33 Safety Net 30.0% $35.52 Breakthrough 5.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 5.0% $13.90 | $55.48 +29.3% | $44.45 +3.6% | 60.0% | +26.8% | $42.92 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Converter  12.5% $3.73 Hand Brake  12.5% $2.00 Check Engine  12.5% $1.96 Brake Light 12.5% $1.79 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $0.91 Creep 12.5% $0.87 | $3.73 +153.7% | $1.59 +8.3% | 50.0% | +58.4% | $1.47 | — |