The Italy Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Boreal Forest
2x $0.18
Stained
2x $0.30
Acid Dart
2x $0.16
Leafhopper
2x $0.16
Mustard Gas
1x $0.17
Garter-9
1x $0.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
12.0% $4.61
Tropical Breeze
12.0% $3.67
Candy Apple
13.3% $3.63
Anodized Navy
13.3% $2.48
Gold Leaf
12.0% $1.57
Full Stop
13.3% $1.53
Max Win
$4.61 (+121.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.42 (+16.5%)
Win %
50.7%
Volatility
+63.5%
Cost
$2.08
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.08
Ask Price EV $2.42 (+16.5%)
Bid Price EV $2.29 (+9.9%)
Ask Profit $0.34 (+16.5%)
Bid Profit $0.21 (+9.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.14 (+6.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.34
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.21
Risk
Win Probability 50.7%
Loss Probability 49.3%
Best Case $4.61 (+121.6%)
Worst Case $0.42 (-79.6%)
Volatility +63.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 37.3%
Avg Win +$1.49
Avg Loss -$0.83
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.42 (-79.6%)
Std Dev $1.32
Avg Norm Float 0.1163
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 148h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest
—
Field-Tested
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Stained
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Stained
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 10S //TOTAL COST $2.08 //ASK PRICE EV $2.42 //BID PRICE EV $2.29 //ASK PROFIT $0.34 (+16.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.21 (+9.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.7% //BEST CASE $4.61 //VOLATILITY +63.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
12.0%
$4.61
+$2.53
+121.6%
$3.81
+$1.73
+83.2%
$0.80
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
12.0%
$3.67
+$1.59
+76.5%
$3.64
+$1.56
+75.0%
$0.03
0.8%
—
BIG WIN
13.3%
$3.63
+$1.55
+74.7%
$3.60
+$1.52
+73.1%
$0.03
0.9%
—
WIN
13.3%
$2.48
+$0.40
+19.1%
$2.47
+$0.39
+18.8%
$0.01
0.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$1.57
-$0.51
-24.4%
$1.49
-$0.59
-28.4%
$0.08
5.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$1.53
-$0.55
-26.4%
$1.51
-$0.57
-27.4%
$0.02
1.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$1.44
-$0.64
-31.0%
$1.28
-$0.80
-38.5%
$0.16
10.9%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.42
-$1.66
-79.6%
$0.41
-$1.67
-80.3%
$0.01
3.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-italy|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.03489,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4e5b581684d4",
"realistic_value": 3.6335,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:41:52.882116Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4e5b581684d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.009304,
"output_skin_id": "skin-16044409b9f9",
"realistic_value": 2.4770000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.47,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 2.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:50:04.764312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-16044409b9f9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06978,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5399c334e3b4",
"realistic_value": 1.53,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop",
"conservative_value": 1.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:17.426780Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5399c334e3b4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.087225,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.079084,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.4235,
"optimistic_value": 0.42,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:50.541764Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06978,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.572,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:22.758011Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06396500000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06978,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.436,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:56.970174Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0b67cd1c72ee0a085e1cefe8",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-7c750505c0aa",
"listing_id": "518620288314587116",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7c750505c0aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:18:17.149354Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-7c750505c0aa",
"listing_id": "514115891842458342",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7c750505c0aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:18:17.149354Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-c4a250807703",
"listing_id": "519746188258831256",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Stained (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Stained",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c4a250807703.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:20.653391Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-c4a250807703",
"listing_id": "523123888072844578",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Stained (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Stained",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c4a250807703.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:20.653391Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "512990789044843799",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:34:18.552211Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "503983423971210091",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.394122Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "515242423037531833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:34:18.552211Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "515242423032787825",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:36.325298Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "521997988015820706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.394122Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "524249840858880507",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:35.893065Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-italy:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 13.3% $3.63 Anodized Navy 13.3% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 12.0% $0.42 Gold Leaf 12.0% $0.42 | $4.61 +215.8% | $1.78 +21.8% | 50.7% | +95.1% | $1.46 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 10.0% $3.63 Anodized Navy 10.0% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 14.0% $0.42 Gold Leaf 14.0% $0.42 | $4.61 +244.0% | $1.71 +28.0% | 48.0% | +107.3% | $1.34 | — |
The Italy Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 16.7% $3.63 Anodized Navy 16.7% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 10.0% $0.42 Gold Leaf 10.0% $0.42 | $4.61 +186.3% | $1.84 +14.1% | 53.3% | +82.7% | $1.61 | — |