The Italy Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Gunsmoke
1x $0.34
Boreal Forest
1x $0.49
CaliCamo
1x $0.69
Granite Marbleized
1x $0.83
Garter-9
1x $0.26
Polished Malachite
1x $0.31
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
12.0% $10.66
Tropical Breeze
12.0% $3.67
Candy Apple
13.3% $3.63
Anodized Navy
13.3% $2.48
Gold Leaf
12.0% $1.57
Full Stop
13.3% $1.53
Max Win
$10.66 (+79.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.28 (-44.7%)
Win %
12.0%
Volatility
+48.2%
Cost
$5.94
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.94
Ask Price EV $3.28 (-44.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.14 (-47.1%)
Ask Profit $-2.66 (-44.7%)
Bid Profit $-2.80 (-47.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.14 (+2.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.66
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.80
Risk
Win Probability 12.0%
Loss Probability 88.0%
Best Case $10.66 (+79.5%)
Worst Case $1.44 (-75.8%)
Volatility +48.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 88.0%
Avg Win +$4.72
Avg Loss -$3.66
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.44 (-75.8%)
Std Dev $2.86
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 148h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest
—
Minimal Wear
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | CaliCamo
—
Factory New
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Granite Marbleized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$1.46 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 39M 40S //TOTAL COST $5.94 //ASK PRICE EV $3.28 //BID PRICE EV $3.14 //ASK PROFIT $-2.66 (-44.7%) //BID PROFIT $-2.80 (-47.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 12.0% //BEST CASE $10.66 //VOLATILITY +48.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
12.0%
$10.66
+$4.72
+79.5%
$9.81
+$3.87
+65.2%
$0.85
8.0%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$3.67
-$2.27
-38.2%
$3.64
-$2.30
-38.7%
$0.03
0.8%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$3.63
-$2.31
-38.8%
$3.60
-$2.34
-39.4%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$2.48
-$3.46
-58.3%
$2.47
-$3.47
-58.4%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.57
-$4.37
-73.5%
$1.49
-$4.45
-74.9%
$0.08
5.2%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$1.53
-$4.41
-74.2%
$1.51
-$4.43
-74.6%
$0.02
1.3%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.53
-$4.41
-74.2%
$1.52
-$4.42
-74.4%
$0.01
0.7%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.44
-$4.50
-75.8%
$1.28
-$4.66
-78.5%
$0.16
10.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-italy|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.020997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4e5b581684d4",
"realistic_value": 3.6335,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:41:52.882116Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4e5b581684d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0055991999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-16044409b9f9",
"realistic_value": 2.4770000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.47,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 2.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:50:04.764312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-16044409b9f9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5399c334e3b4",
"realistic_value": 1.53,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop",
"conservative_value": 1.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:17.426780Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5399c334e3b4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0524925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0475932,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.53,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:26.885468Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.572,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:22.758011Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0384945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.436,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:56.970174Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0b67cd1c72ee0a085e1cefe8",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-4876ba10c2c4",
"listing_id": "503983589620299619",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4876ba10c2c4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:38.926568Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-7c750505c0aa",
"listing_id": "496102290329985035",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7c750505c0aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:17.974529Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-f186f29dda0c",
"listing_id": "657104615563769652",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | CaliCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f186f29dda0c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:55.422299Z"
},
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-d075421607f7",
"listing_id": "526501422106841429",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Granite Marbleized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d075421607f7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:28.243993Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "523123888071660394",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:35.893065Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "642467916640465877",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:34:40.485641Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "523123888072931734",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:18.561133Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "652601015910513612",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:36.930792Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:18.561133Z"
},
{
"price": 1.46,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "515242536108553321",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:18.561133Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-italy:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 13.3% $3.63 Anodized Navy 13.3% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 12.0% $0.42 Gold Leaf 12.0% $0.42 | $4.61 +215.8% | $1.78 +21.8% | 50.7% | +95.1% | $1.46 | — |
The Italy Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $3.67 Candy Apple 13.3% $3.63 Anodized Navy 13.3% $2.48 Gold Leaf 12.0% $1.57 Full Stop 13.3% $1.53 | $4.61 +121.6% | $2.42 +16.5% | 50.7% | +51.5% | $2.08 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 10.0% $3.63 Anodized Navy 10.0% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 14.0% $0.42 Gold Leaf 14.0% $0.42 | $4.61 +244.0% | $1.71 +28.0% | 48.0% | +107.3% | $1.34 | — |
The Italy Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 16.7% $3.63 Anodized Navy 16.7% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 10.0% $0.42 Gold Leaf 10.0% $0.42 | $4.61 +186.3% | $1.84 +14.1% | 53.3% | +82.7% | $1.61 | — |