The Italy Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
CaliCamo
1x $0.15
Boreal Forest
2x $0.18
Gunsmoke
1x $0.30
Leafhopper
3x $0.06
Marsh
2x $0.07
Acid Dart
1x $0.13
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
12.0% $4.61
Candy Apple
13.3% $3.63
Anodized Navy
13.3% $2.48
Tropical Breeze
12.0% $1.82
Poplar Thicket
12.0% $0.43
Gold Leaf
12.0% $0.42
Max Win
$4.61 (+217.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.78 (+22.5%)
Win %
50.7%
Volatility
+107.9%
Cost
$1.45
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.45
Ask Price EV $1.78 (+22.5%)
Bid Price EV $1.65 (+13.5%)
Ask Profit $0.33 (+22.5%)
Bid Profit $0.20 (+13.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.13 (+9.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.33
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.20
Risk
Win Probability 50.7%
Loss Probability 49.3%
Best Case $4.61 (+217.9%)
Worst Case $0.30 (-79.3%)
Volatility +107.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 49.3%
Avg Win +$1.68
Avg Loss -$1.07
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.30 (-79.3%)
Std Dev $1.56
Avg Norm Float 0.1991
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 147h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | CaliCamo
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest
—
Field-Tested
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 39M 35S //TOTAL COST $1.45 //ASK PRICE EV $1.78 //BID PRICE EV $1.65 //ASK PROFIT $0.33 (+22.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.20 (+13.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.7% //BEST CASE $4.61 //VOLATILITY +107.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$4.61
+$3.16
+217.9%
$3.81
+$2.36
+162.8%
$0.80
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
13.3%
$3.63
+$2.18
+150.6%
$3.60
+$2.15
+148.3%
$0.03
0.9%
—
BIG WIN
13.3%
$2.48
+$1.03
+70.8%
$2.47
+$1.02
+70.3%
$0.01
0.3%
—
WIN
12.0%
$1.82
+$0.37
+25.6%
$1.70
+$0.25
+17.2%
$0.12
6.6%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.43
-$1.02
-70.3%
$0.41
-$1.04
-71.7%
$0.02
4.7%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.42
-$1.03
-70.8%
$0.38
-$1.07
-73.8%
$0.04
10.3%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.39
-$1.06
-72.8%
$0.35
-$1.10
-75.9%
$0.04
11.2%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$0.30
-$1.15
-79.3%
$0.29
-$1.16
-80.0%
$0.01
3.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-italy|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.059726999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4e5b581684d4",
"realistic_value": 3.6335,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:41:52.882116Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4e5b581684d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0159272,
"output_skin_id": "skin-16044409b9f9",
"realistic_value": 2.4770000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.47,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 2.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:50:04.764312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-16044409b9f9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.11945399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5399c334e3b4",
"realistic_value": 0.3,
"optimistic_value": 0.3,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop",
"conservative_value": 0.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:09:42.183866Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5399c334e3b4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.1493175,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.1353812,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.43,
"optimistic_value": 0.43,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:30.128809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.11945399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 0.4235,
"optimistic_value": 0.42,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:25:48.900359Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.1094995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 1.821,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.839903Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.11945399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 0.394,
"optimistic_value": 0.38,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 0.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:53.545345Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0b67cd1c72ee0a085e1cefe8",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-f186f29dda0c",
"listing_id": "516368488726175018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | CaliCamo (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | CaliCamo",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f186f29dda0c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:07.567932Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-7c750505c0aa",
"listing_id": "518620288314587116",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7c750505c0aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:30:09.362143Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-7c750505c0aa",
"listing_id": "514115891842458342",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7c750505c0aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:30:09.362143Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-4876ba10c2c4",
"listing_id": "494976390477240654",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4876ba10c2c4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:25:36.654784Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "520872088107274080",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:29:01.275938Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "527627487624253760",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:10:01.348937Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "502856892559649080",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:10:01.348937Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "519746135814806588",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:29:01.275938Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "517494388634260894",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:46.686245Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "492724590627237165",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:10:17.443212Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-italy:4+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $3.67 Candy Apple 13.3% $3.63 Anodized Navy 13.3% $2.48 Full Stop 13.3% $1.53 Gold Leaf 12.0% $1.50 | $4.61 +102.2% | $2.42 +6.0% | 50.7% | +47.4% | $2.28 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 6.7% $3.63 Anodized Navy 6.7% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 16.0% $0.42 Gold Leaf 16.0% $0.42 | $4.61 +268.8% | $1.65 +32.4% | 45.3% | +118.5% | $1.25 | — |
The Italy Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 10.0% $3.63 Anodized Navy 10.0% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 14.0% $0.43 Gold Leaf 14.0% $0.42 | $4.61 +244.0% | $1.72 +28.1% | 48.0% | +107.2% | $1.34 | — |
The Italy Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Candy Apple 16.7% $3.63 Anodized Navy 16.7% $2.48 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 Poplar Thicket 10.0% $0.42 Gold Leaf 10.0% $0.42 | $4.61 +186.3% | $1.84 +14.0% | 53.3% | +82.8% | $1.61 | — |