The Winter Offensive Collection ×2+The Revolution Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Cobalt Halftone
2x $1.44
Cyberforce
3x $0.17
Re.built
1x $0.18
Fragments
3x $0.27
Liquidation
1x $0.49
↓
Possible Outputs
Pulse
5.0% $32.56
Rose Iron
5.0% $26.74
Marina
5.0% $20.28
Rising Skull
5.0% $15.60
Emphorosaur-S
16.0% $4.12
Umbral Rabbit
16.0% $3.08
Max Win
$32.56 (+426.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.84 (+10.4%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+145.3%
Cost
$6.19
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $6.19
Ask Price EV $6.84 (+10.4%)
Bid Price EV $6.03 (-2.6%)
Ask Profit $0.65 (+10.4%)
Bid Profit $-0.16 (-2.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.81 (+13.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.65
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.16
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $32.56 (+426.0%)
Worst Case $1.41 (-77.2%)
Volatility +145.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$17.60
Avg Loss -$3.59
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.41 (-77.2%)
Std Dev $8.99
Avg Norm Float 0.1497
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 148h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone
—
Field-Tested
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$2.09 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Liquidation
—
Minimal Wear
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Minimal Wear
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 54S //TOTAL COST $6.19 //ASK PRICE EV $6.84 //BID PRICE EV $6.03 //ASK PROFIT $0.65 (+10.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.16 (-2.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $32.56 //VOLATILITY +145.3% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$32.56
+$26.37
+426.0%
$28.86
+$22.67
+366.2%
$3.70
11.4%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$26.74
+$20.55
+331.9%
$25.62
+$19.43
+313.9%
$1.11
4.2%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$20.28
+$14.09
+227.7%
$16.99
+$10.80
+174.5%
$3.29
16.2%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$15.60
+$9.41
+151.9%
$12.74
+$6.55
+105.8%
$2.86
18.3%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$4.12
-$2.07
-33.5%
$3.56
-$2.63
-42.5%
$0.56
13.5%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$3.08
-$3.11
-50.2%
$2.72
-$3.47
-56.1%
$0.36
11.7%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.65
-$3.54
-57.1%
$2.41
-$3.78
-61.1%
$0.24
9.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$1.73
-$4.46
-72.1%
$1.46
-$4.73
-76.4%
$0.27
15.5%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.41
-$4.78
-77.2%
$1.20
-$4.99
-80.6%
$0.21
14.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-1|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.11224499999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 3.081,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 2.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T02:21:55.223530Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.119728,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 4.1175,
"optimistic_value": 4.1,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 3.56,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:22:44.557721Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.2968028,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 2.6535,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 2.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T22:36:48.873772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.08979599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 1.41,
"optimistic_value": 1.41,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 1.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Neoqueen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:55:55.089189Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14966,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 1.7269999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 1.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:44:50.454749Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.11734699999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6c5c32b4624e",
"realistic_value": 20.2845,
"optimistic_value": 19,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Marina",
"conservative_value": 16.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T12:33:05.612211Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6c5c32b4624e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.059864,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2930dffc8ea9",
"realistic_value": 32.5565,
"optimistic_value": 32,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Pulse",
"conservative_value": 28.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T13:26:40.240614Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2930dffc8ea9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.044897999999999993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-65b73b6b9f0a",
"realistic_value": 26.735,
"optimistic_value": 26,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Rose Iron",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T01:09:10.927906Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-65b73b6b9f0a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.07483,
"output_skin_id": "skin-88e63f9b34df",
"realistic_value": 15.5955,
"optimistic_value": 14.5,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Skull",
"conservative_value": 12.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:09.297866Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-88e63f9b34df.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0a0d2186f7da44d84e7caf2f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-8ba5e5f3632f",
"listing_id": "506235337024851072",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ba5e5f3632f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:24.759473Z"
},
{
"price": 2.09,
"skin_id": "skin-8ba5e5f3632f",
"listing_id": "500605092729912719",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ba5e5f3632f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:06:47.407901Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "510739041953574646",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:02:25.327002Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "523123091064930586",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:50.216398Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "503983642532410795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:44.118041Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "514116741796781502",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:44.118041Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "517494441497397490",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:44.118041Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "519746241188332448",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:39.708369Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-d87f89df4191",
"listing_id": "502857637416920044",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Liquidation",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d87f89df4191.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:47.793626Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "524249787961735143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:39.708369Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-1:2+collection-set-community-32:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Winter Offensive Collection ×2+The Revolution Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Pulse 5.0% $32.56 Rose Iron 5.0% $26.74 Marina 5.0% $20.28 Rising Skull 5.0% $15.60 Emphorosaur-S 16.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 16.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +517.8% | $6.70 +27.1% | 20.0% | +158.6% | $5.27 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Winter Offensive Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Rose Iron 7.5% $26.74 Pulse 7.5% $23.40 Marina 7.5% $20.28 Rising Skull 7.5% $15.60 Sakkaku 14.0% $2.65 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $1.82 | $26.74 +346.3% | $7.59 +26.7% | 30.0% | +140.9% | $5.99 | — |
The Winter Offensive Collection ×4+The Revolution Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Pulse 10.0% $32.56 Rose Iron 10.0% $26.74 Marina 10.0% $20.28 Rising Skull 10.0% $15.60 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +263.8% | $10.97 +22.6% | 40.0% | +109.1% | $8.95 | — |
The Winter Offensive Collection ×5+The Revolution Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Rose Iron 12.5% $26.74 Pulse 12.5% $23.40 Marina 12.5% $20.28 Rising Skull 12.5% $15.60 Sakkaku 10.0% $2.65 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $1.82 | $26.74 +173.9% | $11.56 +18.5% | 50.0% | +88.9% | $9.76 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Winter Offensive Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Asiimov  15.0% $806.35 The Kraken  15.0% $227.80 Temukau  35.0% $52.74 Head Shot  35.0% $46.53 | $806.35 +345.6% | $189.87 +4.9% | 30.0% | +147.3% | $180.94 | — |