The Winter Offensive Collection ×2+The Revolution Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Cobalt Halftone
2x $2.69
Fragments
3x $0.29
Cyberforce
2x $0.34
Liquidation
1x $0.49
Featherweight
1x $1.51
Rebel
1x $1.88
↓
Possible Outputs
Pulse
5.0% $32.56
Rose Iron
5.0% $26.74
Marina
5.0% $20.28
Rising Skull
5.0% $19.65
Emphorosaur-S
16.0% $11.80
Banana Cannon
16.0% $8.11
Max Win
$32.56 (+129.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.19 (-28.2%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+58.1%
Cost
$14.20
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $14.20
Ask Price EV $10.19 (-28.2%)
Bid Price EV $9.05 (-36.3%)
Ask Profit $-4.01 (-28.2%)
Bid Profit $-5.15 (-36.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.14 (+8.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$4.01
Bid Slippage Buffer -$5.15
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $32.56 (+129.3%)
Worst Case $2.65 (-81.3%)
Volatility +58.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 64.0%
Avg Win +$10.61
Avg Loss -$7.66
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.65 (-81.3%)
Std Dev $8.25
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 149h 22m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$2.69 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$2.87 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Liquidation
—
Minimal Wear
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Factory New
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Factory New
$1.42 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Featherweight
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Factory New
$1.76 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Factory New
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 09S //TOTAL COST $14.20 //ASK PRICE EV $10.19 //BID PRICE EV $9.05 //ASK PROFIT $-4.01 (-28.2%) //BID PROFIT $-5.15 (-36.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $32.56 //VOLATILITY +58.1% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$32.56
+$18.36
+129.3%
$28.86
+$14.66
+103.2%
$3.70
11.4%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$26.74
+$12.53
+88.3%
$25.62
+$11.42
+80.4%
$1.11
4.2%
—
WIN
5.0%
$20.28
+$6.08
+42.8%
$16.99
+$2.79
+19.6%
$3.29
16.2%
—
WIN
5.0%
$19.65
+$5.45
+38.4%
$18.12
+$3.92
+27.6%
$1.53
7.8%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$11.80
-$2.40
-16.9%
$10.16
-$4.04
-28.5%
$1.64
13.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$8.11
-$6.09
-42.9%
$6.70
-$7.50
-52.8%
$1.41
17.4%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$6.95
-$7.26
-51.1%
$6.21
-$7.99
-56.3%
$0.74
10.6%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$3.19
-$11.01
-77.6%
$3.08
-$11.12
-78.3%
$0.11
3.3%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.65
-$11.55
-81.3%
$2.41
-$11.79
-83.0%
$0.24
9.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-1|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.05244,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 6.945,
"optimistic_value": 6.7,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:10.778222Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.055936,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 11.804499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 11.5,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 10.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:46.328444Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.2505536,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 2.6535,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 2.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T22:36:48.873772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041951999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.1865,
"optimistic_value": 3.12,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:25.040848Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 8.1115,
"optimistic_value": 8.01,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 6.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:52:49.032911Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.08146400000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6c5c32b4624e",
"realistic_value": 20.2845,
"optimistic_value": 19,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Marina",
"conservative_value": 16.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T12:33:05.612211Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6c5c32b4624e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.027968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2930dffc8ea9",
"realistic_value": 32.5565,
"optimistic_value": 32,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Pulse",
"conservative_value": 28.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T13:26:40.240614Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2930dffc8ea9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.020975999999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-65b73b6b9f0a",
"realistic_value": 26.735,
"optimistic_value": 26,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Rose Iron",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T01:09:10.927906Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-65b73b6b9f0a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.03496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-88e63f9b34df",
"realistic_value": 19.648500000000002,
"optimistic_value": 18.42,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Skull",
"conservative_value": 18.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:37:55.594448Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-88e63f9b34df.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0a0d2186f7da44d84e7caf2f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.69,
"skin_id": "skin-8ba5e5f3632f",
"listing_id": "744916495287537225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ba5e5f3632f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:06:47.407901Z"
},
{
"price": 2.87,
"skin_id": "skin-8ba5e5f3632f",
"listing_id": "748293027022552676",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ba5e5f3632f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:06:47.407901Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "514116741796781502",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:44.118041Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "519746241188332448",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:39.708369Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-d87f89df4191",
"listing_id": "502857637416920044",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Liquidation",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d87f89df4191.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:47.793626Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "521997988016650110",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:07:03.686124Z"
},
{
"price": 1.42,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "525375688037147803",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:27.881831Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-2f564d56b7ff",
"listing_id": "496102290328688171",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Featherweight (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Featherweight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f564d56b7ff.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:24.598810Z"
},
{
"price": 1.76,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "515241791644842529",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:07:03.686124Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "496102237882665215",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:14.903744Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-1:2+collection-set-community-32:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Winter Offensive Collection ×2+The Revolution Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Pulse 5.0% $32.56 Rose Iron 5.0% $26.74 Marina 5.0% $20.28 Rising Skull 5.0% $15.60 Emphorosaur-S 16.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 16.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +517.8% | $6.70 +27.1% | 20.0% | +158.6% | $5.27 | — |
The Winter Offensive Collection ×2+The Revolution Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Pulse 5.0% $32.56 Rose Iron 5.0% $26.74 Marina 5.0% $20.28 Rising Skull 5.0% $15.60 Emphorosaur-S 16.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 16.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +426.0% | $6.84 +10.4% | 20.0% | +134.4% | $6.19 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Winter Offensive Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Rose Iron 7.5% $26.74 Pulse 7.5% $23.40 Marina 7.5% $20.28 Rising Skull 7.5% $15.60 Sakkaku 14.0% $2.65 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $1.82 | $26.74 +346.3% | $7.59 +26.7% | 30.0% | +140.9% | $5.99 | — |
The Winter Offensive Collection ×4+The Revolution Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Pulse 10.0% $32.56 Rose Iron 10.0% $26.74 Marina 10.0% $20.28 Rising Skull 10.0% $15.60 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +263.8% | $10.97 +22.6% | 40.0% | +109.1% | $8.95 | — |
The Winter Offensive Collection ×5+The Revolution Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Rose Iron 12.5% $26.74 Pulse 12.5% $23.40 Marina 12.5% $20.28 Rising Skull 12.5% $15.60 Sakkaku 10.0% $2.65 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $1.82 | $26.74 +173.9% | $11.56 +18.5% | 50.0% | +88.9% | $9.76 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Winter Offensive Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Asiimov  15.0% $806.35 The Kraken  15.0% $227.80 Temukau  35.0% $52.74 Head Shot  35.0% $46.53 | $806.35 +345.6% | $189.87 +4.9% | 30.0% | +147.3% | $180.94 | — |