The Winter Offensive Collection ×2+The Revolution Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Cobalt Halftone
2x $1.44
Fragments
3x $0.14
Cyberforce
3x $0.17
Re.built
2x $0.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Rose Iron
5.0% $26.74
Pulse
5.0% $23.40
Marina
5.0% $20.28
Rising Skull
5.0% $15.60
Emphorosaur-S
16.0% $4.12
Umbral Rabbit
16.0% $3.08
Max Win
$26.74 (+445.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.24 (+27.3%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+161.6%
Cost
$4.90
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.90
Ask Price EV $6.24 (+27.3%)
Bid Price EV $5.47 (+11.7%)
Ask Profit $1.34 (+27.3%)
Bid Profit $0.57 (+11.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.77 (+15.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.34
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.57
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $26.74 (+445.6%)
Worst Case $0.85 (-82.6%)
Volatility +161.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 64.0%
Avg Win +$16.60
Avg Loss -$2.48
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.85 (-82.6%)
Std Dev $7.92
Avg Norm Float 0.1871
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 147h 53m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone
—
Field-Tested
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone
—
Field-Tested
$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 11M 40S //TOTAL COST $4.90 //ASK PRICE EV $6.24 //BID PRICE EV $5.47 //ASK PROFIT $1.34 (+27.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.57 (+11.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $26.74 //VOLATILITY +161.6% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$26.74
+$21.84
+445.6%
$25.62
+$20.72
+422.9%
$1.11
4.2%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$23.40
+$18.50
+377.6%
$19.86
+$14.96
+305.3%
$3.54
15.1%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$20.28
+$15.38
+314.0%
$16.99
+$12.09
+246.7%
$3.29
16.2%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$15.60
+$10.70
+218.3%
$12.74
+$7.84
+160.0%
$2.86
18.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$4.12
-$0.78
-16.0%
$3.56
-$1.34
-27.3%
$0.56
13.5%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$3.08
-$1.82
-37.1%
$2.72
-$2.18
-44.5%
$0.36
11.7%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.65
-$2.25
-45.8%
$2.41
-$2.49
-50.8%
$0.24
9.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.41
-$3.49
-71.2%
$1.20
-$3.70
-75.5%
$0.21
14.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.85
-$4.05
-82.6%
$0.82
-$4.08
-83.3%
$0.03
4.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-1|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14031,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 3.081,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 2.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T02:21:55.223530Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.149664,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 4.1175,
"optimistic_value": 4.1,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 3.56,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:22:44.557721Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.3185064,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 2.6535,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 2.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T22:36:48.873772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.112248,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 1.41,
"optimistic_value": 1.41,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 1.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Neoqueen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:43:21.340339Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.18708,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 0.854,
"optimistic_value": 0.84,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:52:54.453692Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.134186,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6c5c32b4624e",
"realistic_value": 20.2845,
"optimistic_value": 19,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Marina",
"conservative_value": 16.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T12:33:05.612211Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6c5c32b4624e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.074832,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2930dffc8ea9",
"realistic_value": 23.4015,
"optimistic_value": 22.81,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Pulse",
"conservative_value": 19.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Pulse (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:45.275510Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2930dffc8ea9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.056124,
"output_skin_id": "skin-65b73b6b9f0a",
"realistic_value": 26.735,
"optimistic_value": 26,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Rose Iron",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T01:09:10.927906Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-65b73b6b9f0a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.09354,
"output_skin_id": "skin-88e63f9b34df",
"realistic_value": 15.5955,
"optimistic_value": 14.5,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Skull",
"conservative_value": 12.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Winter Offensive Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:09.297866Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-88e63f9b34df.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0a0d2186f7da44d84e7caf2f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-8ba5e5f3632f",
"listing_id": "506235337024851072",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ba5e5f3632f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:05.161241Z"
},
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-8ba5e5f3632f",
"listing_id": "529878490346617320",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-1",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ba5e5f3632f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:05.161241Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "503983589620342531",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:00:28.178347Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "510739041953574646",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:11.618232Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "523123091064930586",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:25.337774Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "494976338031886434",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:25.337774Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "650349216076116573",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:11.618232Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "514116741796781502",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:33.357682Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "517494441497397490",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:33.357682Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "519746241188332448",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:00:17.202406Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-1:2+collection-set-community-32:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Winter Offensive Collection ×2+The Revolution Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Pulse 5.0% $32.56 Rose Iron 5.0% $26.74 Marina 5.0% $20.28 Rising Skull 5.0% $15.60 Emphorosaur-S 16.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 16.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +426.8% | $6.84 +10.6% | 20.0% | +134.6% | $6.18 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Winter Offensive Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Pulse 7.5% $32.56 Rose Iron 7.5% $26.74 Marina 7.5% $20.28 Rising Skull 7.5% $15.40 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 14.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +372.5% | $8.82 +28.0% | 30.0% | +135.5% | $6.89 | — |
The Winter Offensive Collection ×4+The Revolution Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Pulse 10.0% $32.56 Rose Iron 10.0% $26.74 Marina 10.0% $20.28 Rising Skull 10.0% $15.40 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +263.8% | $10.95 +22.4% | 40.0% | +109.1% | $8.95 | — |
The Winter Offensive Collection ×5+The Revolution Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Pulse 12.5% $32.56 Rose Iron 12.5% $26.74 Marina 12.5% $20.28 Rising Skull 12.5% $15.40 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $3.08 | $32.56 +199.0% | $13.08 +20.1% | 50.0% | +89.9% | $10.89 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Winter Offensive Collection ×3+The Revolution Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Asiimov  15.0% $806.35 The Kraken  15.0% $227.80 Temukau  35.0% $52.74 Head Shot  35.0% $46.53 | $806.35 +344.6% | $189.87 +4.7% | 30.0% | +146.9% | $181.36 | — |