The Fracture Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Mainframe 001
2x $0.13
Ultralight
1x $0.14
Runic
1x $0.15
Aeolian Light
4x $0.25
Creep
1x $0.28
Grip Tape
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $5.85
Trace Lock
30.0% $2.24
Connexion
8.0% $0.71
Brother
8.0% $0.69
Monster Call
8.0% $0.67
Kitbash
8.0% $0.64
Max Win
$5.85 (+137.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.69 (+9.5%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+88.1%
Cost
$2.46
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.46
Ask Price EV $2.69 (+9.5%)
Bid Price EV $2.35 (-4.4%)
Ask Profit $0.23 (+9.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.11 (-4.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.34 (+13.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.23
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.11
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+137.8%)
Worst Case $0.62 (-74.9%)
Volatility +88.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$3.39
Avg Loss -$1.12
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.62 (-74.9%)
Std Dev $2.17
Avg Norm Float 0.3836
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 140h 30m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 16S //TOTAL COST $2.46 //ASK PRICE EV $2.69 //BID PRICE EV $2.35 //ASK PROFIT $0.23 (+9.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.11 (-4.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +88.1% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$5.85
+$3.39
+137.8%
$4.91
+$2.45
+99.6%
$0.94
16.1%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$2.24
-$0.22
-8.8%
$2.14
-$0.32
-13.0%
$0.10
4.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.71
-$1.75
-71.3%
$0.62
-$1.84
-74.8%
$0.09
12.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.69
-$1.77
-72.0%
$0.55
-$1.91
-77.6%
$0.14
20.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.67
-$1.79
-72.7%
$0.59
-$1.87
-76.0%
$0.08
12.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.64
-$1.82
-73.8%
$0.63
-$1.83
-74.4%
$0.01
2.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.62
-$1.84
-74.9%
$0.58
-$1.88
-76.4%
$0.04
6.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.2877225,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.268541,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.243,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:07.632628Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.30690400000000007,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 0.707,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:56.963889Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.38363,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.617,
"optimistic_value": 0.61,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:18:42.400605Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.38363,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 0.6705,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:49:03.275213Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.30690400000000007,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 0.6435,
"optimistic_value": 0.64,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 0.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:28.066373Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.38363,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T10:36:25.969052Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_084cab04356525046b1ae15f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "492724590625972629",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:56.448156Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "490472738292959487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:56:01.684335Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "503983537176426151",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:19.103379Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "646971516261106184",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:56.448156Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "526501587737062601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:08.297780Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488724825018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:08.297780Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "518620288313707888",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:02.113541Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "507361289452977565",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:34.894634Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620288313700148",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:16.323927Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "497228190141529805",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:34.894634Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.59 Monster Call 8.0% $0.74 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Brother 8.0% $0.71 Connexion 8.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +202.3% | $5.33 +31.7% | 60.0% | +113.9% | $4.05 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $15.24 Allure 8.0% $1.71 Monster Call 8.0% $1.58 Brother 8.0% $1.54 Connexion 8.0% $1.33 | $26.93 +117.9% | $13.24 +7.1% | 60.0% | +81.4% | $12.36 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.59 Monster Call 4.0% $0.74 Allure 4.0% $0.74 Connexion 4.0% $0.73 Brother 4.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +133.7% | $6.88 +31.2% | 40.0% | +84.6% | $5.24 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.59 Monster Call 10.0% $0.74 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Brother 10.0% $0.71 Connexion 10.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +249.9% | $4.56 +30.3% | 50.0% | +129.8% | $3.50 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.59 Monster Call 2.0% $0.74 Allure 2.0% $0.74 Brother 2.0% $0.71 Connexion 2.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +106.5% | $7.65 +28.9% | 45.0% | +70.7% | $5.93 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.59 Monster Call 12.0% $0.74 Allure 12.0% $0.74 Brother 12.0% $0.71 Connexion 12.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +309.5% | $3.79 +26.8% | 40.0% | +145.5% | $2.99 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.59 Monster Call 6.0% $0.74 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Connexion 6.0% $0.73 Brother 6.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +154.0% | $6.11 +26.7% | 35.0% | +94.9% | $4.82 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.59 Monster Call 14.0% $0.74 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Connexion 14.0% $0.73 Brother 14.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +393.8% | $3.02 +21.9% | 30.0% | +161.6% | $2.48 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  50.0% $27.17 Vogue  16.7% $5.80 Entombed  16.7% $5.46 Tooth Fairy  16.7% $5.45 | $27.17 +96.6% | $16.37 +18.5% | 50.0% | +78.2% | $13.82 | — |