The Fracture Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Runic
2x $0.15
Ultralight
1x $0.26
Mainframe 001
1x $0.28
Grip Tape
2x $0.34
Aeolian Light
3x $0.38
The Daily Deagle
1x $0.46
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $12.25
Trace Lock
30.0% $4.78
Monster Call
8.0% $0.74
Allure
8.0% $0.74
Connexion
8.0% $0.72
Brother
8.0% $0.72
Max Win
$12.25 (+200.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.39 (+32.2%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+117.4%
Cost
$4.08
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.08
Ask Price EV $5.39 (+32.2%)
Bid Price EV $4.90 (+20.1%)
Ask Profit $1.31 (+32.2%)
Bid Profit $0.82 (+20.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.49 (+12.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.31
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.82
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $12.25 (+200.1%)
Worst Case $0.65 (-84.0%)
Volatility +117.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$4.43
Avg Loss -$3.36
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.65 (-84.0%)
Std Dev $4.79
Avg Norm Float 0.1997
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 139h 10m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.74 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 38M 23S //TOTAL COST $4.08 //ASK PRICE EV $5.39 //BID PRICE EV $4.90 //ASK PROFIT $1.31 (+32.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.82 (+20.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +117.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$12.25
+$8.17
+200.1%
$11.36
+$7.28
+178.4%
$0.89
7.2%
—
WIN
30.0%
$4.78
+$0.70
+17.2%
$4.10
+$0.02
+0.5%
$0.68
14.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.74
-$3.34
-81.8%
$0.69
-$3.39
-83.1%
$0.05
7.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.74
-$3.34
-81.9%
$0.69
-$3.39
-83.1%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.72
-$3.36
-82.3%
$0.62
-$3.46
-84.8%
$0.10
14.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.72
-$3.36
-82.3%
$0.66
-$3.42
-83.8%
$0.06
8.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.65
-$3.43
-84.0%
$0.63
-$3.45
-84.6%
$0.02
3.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.14976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.13977599999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.782500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.73,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:23.959121Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.159744,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 0.7234999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:08:57.162665Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.737,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T15:35:31.747771Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 0.744,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T10:06:18.050993Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.159744,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 0.6535,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 0.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:05.580728Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 0.7234999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:11:42.913517Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_084cab04356525046b1ae15f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "503983537176426151",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:51:19.250549Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "492724590626061765",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:40.315269Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "507361289452516873",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:42.075485Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "514116688948786470",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:07:17.891660Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "514116688949706378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:35.078283Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "497228190141529805",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:22.497166Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "497228190141160121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:22.497166Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "491598690699020822",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:12.515445Z"
},
{
"price": 0.74,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "512990789044548059",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:17.643543Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "527627487624006008",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:09:24.488823Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.24 Connexion 8.0% $0.72 Brother 8.0% $0.69 Monster Call 8.0% $0.67 Kitbash 8.0% $0.65 | $5.85 +144.8% | $2.70 +12.8% | 30.0% | +87.2% | $2.39 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $27.20 Trace Lock 30.0% $15.24 Allure 8.0% $1.70 Monster Call 8.0% $1.58 Brother 8.0% $1.54 Connexion 8.0% $1.31 | $27.20 +120.0% | $13.32 +7.8% | 60.0% | +82.2% | $12.36 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.78 Monster Call 10.0% $0.74 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Connexion 10.0% $0.72 Brother 10.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +246.9% | $4.62 +30.7% | 50.0% | +128.6% | $3.53 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.59 Monster Call 4.0% $0.74 Allure 4.0% $0.74 Connexion 4.0% $0.72 Brother 4.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +131.0% | $6.88 +29.7% | 40.0% | +83.7% | $5.30 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.59 Monster Call 6.0% $0.74 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Connexion 6.0% $0.72 Brother 6.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +159.4% | $6.11 +29.3% | 35.0% | +96.9% | $4.72 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.78 Monster Call 2.0% $0.74 Allure 2.0% $0.74 Connexion 2.0% $0.72 Brother 2.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +103.1% | $7.73 +28.3% | 45.0% | +68.4% | $6.03 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.78 Monster Call 12.0% $0.74 Allure 12.0% $0.74 Connexion 12.0% $0.72 Brother 12.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +296.3% | $3.84 +24.1% | 40.0% | +140.9% | $3.09 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.59 Monster Call 14.0% $0.74 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Connexion 14.0% $0.72 Brother 14.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +376.5% | $3.03 +17.8% | 30.0% | +155.9% | $2.57 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  50.0% $27.17 Tooth Fairy  16.7% $5.80 Vogue  16.7% $5.75 Entombed  16.7% $5.63 | $27.17 +84.5% | $16.45 +11.7% | 50.0% | +72.8% | $14.73 | — |