The Fracture Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items

Factory New -14.1%Field-Tested +31.7%Minimal Wear +7.1%Well-Worn +9.5%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear

Inputs

Runic

1x $0.29

Mainframe 001

1x $0.41

Ultralight

2x $0.53

Grip Tape

2x $0.87

Aeolian Light

3x $0.94

The Daily Deagle

1x $3.00

↓

Possible Outputs

Breakthrough

30.0% $26.93

Trace Lock

30.0% $15.24

Allure

8.0% $1.71

Monster Call

8.0% $1.58

Brother

8.0% $1.54

Connexion

8.0% $1.33

Max Win

$26.93 (+117.9%)

EV (ROI %)

$13.24 (+7.1%)

Win %

60.0%

Volatility

+85.9%

Cost

$12.36

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $12.36

Ask Price EV $13.24 (+7.1%)

Bid Price EV $12.49 (+1.1%)

Ask Profit $0.88 (+7.1%)

Bid Profit $0.13 (+1.1%)

Liquidity Gap $0.75 (+6.1%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.88

Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.13

Risk

Win Probability 60.0%

Loss Probability 40.0%

Best Case $26.93 (+117.9%)

Worst Case $1.24 (-89.9%)

Volatility +85.9%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%

Avg Win +$8.72

Avg Loss -$10.88

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.24 (-89.9%)

Std Dev $10.62

Avg Norm Float 0.0932

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 22m

Oldest Output Price 1h 37m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

PP-Bizon | Runic

—

Minimal Wear

$0.29 Float: HIDDEN

SSG 08 | Mainframe 001

—

Minimal Wear

$0.41 Float: HIDDEN

Negev | Ultralight

—

Minimal Wear

$0.53 Float: HIDDEN

Negev | Ultralight

—

Factory New

$1.41 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Minimal Wear

$0.87 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Minimal Wear

$0.94 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Minimal Wear

$0.99 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Factory New

$1.92 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Factory New

$2.00 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle

—

Factory New

$3.00 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 17S //TOTAL COST $12.36 //ASK PRICE EV $13.24 //BID PRICE EV $12.49 //ASK PROFIT $0.88 (+7.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.13 (+1.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +85.9% //

Possible Outputs · 7

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.06993,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
      "optimistic_value": 26.72,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 26.63,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.06526799999999999,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 15.2405,
      "optimistic_value": 14.81,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 13.15,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:05.081369Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.074592,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
      "realistic_value": 1.327,
      "optimistic_value": 1.32,
      "output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
      "conservative_value": 1.23,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:18:06.188154Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.09324,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
      "realistic_value": 1.7069999999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 1.7,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
      "conservative_value": 1.54,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:18:23.349757Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.09324,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
      "realistic_value": 1.58,
      "optimistic_value": 1.58,
      "output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
      "conservative_value": 1.55,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:50.767597Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.074592,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
      "realistic_value": 1.244,
      "optimistic_value": 1.23,
      "output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
      "conservative_value": 1.12,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:28.899631Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.08,
      "output_float": 0.09324,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
      "realistic_value": 1.54,
      "optimistic_value": 1.54,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
      "conservative_value": 1.53,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:47.599629Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_084cab04356525046b1ae15f",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.29,
      "skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
      "listing_id": "514116688948786470",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
      "market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:18:51.267315Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
      "listing_id": "511864836540298521",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
      "market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:51.533862Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.53,
      "skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
      "listing_id": "661608215076176884",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
      "market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Negev | Ultralight",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:22.134156Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
      "listing_id": "507360492281933533",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
      "market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Factory New)",
      "name": "Negev | Ultralight",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:58.691419Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.87,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "506235337025136948",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:40.970736Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.94,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "518620288313427412",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:06.017464Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.99,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "652600943945535924",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:40.970736Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.92,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "493850490549357652",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:40.993604Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "520872088106386248",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:40.993604Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "506235389469302484",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:23.280403Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.59 Monster Call 8.0% $0.74 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Brother 8.0% $0.71 Connexion 8.0% $0.71	$12.25 +202.3%	$5.33 +31.7%	60.0%	+113.9%	$4.05	—
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.24 Connexion 8.0% $0.71 Brother 8.0% $0.69 Monster Call 8.0% $0.67 Kitbash 8.0% $0.64	$5.85 +137.8%	$2.69 +9.5%	30.0%	+84.8%	$2.46	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.59 Monster Call 4.0% $0.74 Allure 4.0% $0.74 Connexion 4.0% $0.73 Brother 4.0% $0.71	$12.25 +133.7%	$6.88 +31.2%	40.0%	+84.6%	$5.24	—
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.59 Monster Call 10.0% $0.74 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Brother 10.0% $0.71 Connexion 10.0% $0.71	$12.25 +249.9%	$4.56 +30.3%	50.0%	+129.8%	$3.50	—
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.59 Monster Call 2.0% $0.74 Allure 2.0% $0.74 Brother 2.0% $0.71 Connexion 2.0% $0.71	$12.25 +106.5%	$7.65 +28.9%	45.0%	+70.7%	$5.93	—
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.59 Monster Call 12.0% $0.74 Allure 12.0% $0.74 Brother 12.0% $0.71 Connexion 12.0% $0.71	$12.25 +309.5%	$3.79 +26.8%	40.0%	+145.5%	$2.99	—
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.59 Monster Call 6.0% $0.74 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Connexion 6.0% $0.73 Brother 6.0% $0.71	$12.25 +154.0%	$6.11 +26.7%	35.0%	+94.9%	$4.82	—
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.59 Monster Call 14.0% $0.74 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Connexion 14.0% $0.73 Brother 14.0% $0.71	$12.25 +393.8%	$3.02 +21.9%	30.0%	+161.6%	$2.48	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested	The End 50.0% $27.17 Vogue 16.7% $5.80 Entombed 16.7% $5.46 Tooth Fairy 16.7% $5.45	$27.17 +96.6%	$16.37 +18.5%	50.0%	+78.2%	$13.82	—