The Fracture Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Ol' Rusty
1x $1.19
Ultralight
1x $1.41
Runic
1x $1.62
Freight
1x $2.30
Grip Tape
1x $0.99
Creep
1x $1.88
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
30.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
30.0% $15.24
Brother
8.0% $11.42
Allure
8.0% $8.88
Monster Call
8.0% $8.29
Connexion
8.0% $7.01
Max Win
$26.93 (+45.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$15.94 (-14.1%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+42.3%
Cost
$18.56
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $18.56
Ask Price EV $15.94 (-14.1%)
Bid Price EV $15.19 (-18.2%)
Ask Profit $-2.62 (-14.1%)
Bid Profit $-3.37 (-18.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.75 (+4.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.62
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.37
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+45.1%)
Worst Case $5.56 (-70.0%)
Volatility +42.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$8.37
Avg Loss -$7.32
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.56 (-70.0%)
Std Dev $7.85
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 1h 37m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Factory New
$1.41 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.99 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$1.92 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.25 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 42S //TOTAL COST $18.56 //ASK PRICE EV $15.94 //BID PRICE EV $15.19 //ASK PROFIT $-2.62 (-14.1%) //BID PROFIT $-3.37 (-18.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +42.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
30.0%
$26.93
+$8.37
+45.1%
$26.63
+$8.07
+43.5%
$0.30
1.1%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$15.24
-$3.32
-17.9%
$13.15
-$5.41
-29.1%
$2.09
13.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$11.42
-$7.14
-38.4%
$11.24
-$7.32
-39.4%
$0.18
1.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$8.88
-$9.68
-52.2%
$8.83
-$9.73
-52.4%
$0.05
0.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$8.29
-$10.27
-55.4%
$8.11
-$10.45
-56.3%
$0.18
2.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$7.01
-$11.55
-62.2%
$6.99
-$11.57
-62.3%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$5.56
-$13.00
-70.0%
$5.53
-$13.03
-70.2%
$0.03
0.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.052455,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.048958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 15.2405,
"optimistic_value": 14.81,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:05.081369Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.055952,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 7.0135,
"optimistic_value": 7.01,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 6.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:48.153398Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 8.8805,
"optimistic_value": 8.87,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 8.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:33.537009Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 8.285499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 8.24,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 8.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:54:49.552530Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.055952,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 5.5634999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 5.56,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 5.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:22.229184Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 11.424,
"optimistic_value": 11.41,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 11.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:34:38.920460Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_084cab04356525046b1ae15f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "643593816554451037",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:27.366641Z"
},
{
"price": 1.41,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "507360492281933533",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:58.691419Z"
},
{
"price": 1.62,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "509613089304458811",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:34.260724Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "510738989039482642",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Freight (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:59:29.659589Z"
},
{
"price": 0.99,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "652600943945535924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:40.970736Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "524248990833803271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:22.062356Z"
},
{
"price": 1.92,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "493850490549357652",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:40.993604Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "520872088106386248",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:40.993604Z"
},
{
"price": 2.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "490472625090998583",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:40.993604Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:23.280403Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.59 Monster Call 8.0% $0.74 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Brother 8.0% $0.71 Connexion 8.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +202.3% | $5.33 +31.7% | 60.0% | +113.9% | $4.05 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.24 Connexion 8.0% $0.71 Brother 8.0% $0.69 Monster Call 8.0% $0.67 Kitbash 8.0% $0.64 | $5.85 +137.8% | $2.69 +9.5% | 30.0% | +84.8% | $2.46 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $15.24 Allure 8.0% $1.71 Monster Call 8.0% $1.58 Brother 8.0% $1.54 Connexion 8.0% $1.33 | $26.93 +117.9% | $13.24 +7.1% | 60.0% | +81.4% | $12.36 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.59 Monster Call 4.0% $0.74 Allure 4.0% $0.74 Connexion 4.0% $0.73 Brother 4.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +133.7% | $6.88 +31.2% | 40.0% | +84.6% | $5.24 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.59 Monster Call 10.0% $0.74 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Brother 10.0% $0.71 Connexion 10.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +249.9% | $4.56 +30.3% | 50.0% | +129.8% | $3.50 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.59 Monster Call 2.0% $0.74 Allure 2.0% $0.74 Brother 2.0% $0.71 Connexion 2.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +106.5% | $7.65 +28.9% | 45.0% | +70.7% | $5.93 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.59 Monster Call 12.0% $0.74 Allure 12.0% $0.74 Brother 12.0% $0.71 Connexion 12.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +309.5% | $3.79 +26.8% | 40.0% | +145.5% | $2.99 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.59 Monster Call 6.0% $0.74 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Connexion 6.0% $0.73 Brother 6.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +154.0% | $6.11 +26.7% | 35.0% | +94.9% | $4.82 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.59 Monster Call 14.0% $0.74 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Connexion 14.0% $0.73 Brother 14.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +393.8% | $3.02 +21.9% | 30.0% | +161.6% | $2.48 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  50.0% $27.17 Vogue  16.7% $5.80 Entombed  16.7% $5.46 Tooth Fairy  16.7% $5.45 | $27.17 +96.6% | $16.37 +18.5% | 50.0% | +78.2% | $13.82 | — |