The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Ensnared
1x $0.15
Spirit Board
1x $0.30
Foresight
1x $0.31
Lifted Spirits
1x $0.34
Warm Blooded
3x $0.54
Earth Mandala
2x $0.57
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
30.0% $13.99
Sleeping Potion
30.0% $11.82
Night Terror
8.0% $1.51
Space Cat
8.0% $1.17
Zombie Offensive
8.0% $1.02
Ticket to Hell
8.0% $0.96
Max Win
$13.99 (+126.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.19 (+32.5%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+94.5%
Cost
$6.18
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.18
Ask Price EV $8.19 (+32.5%)
Bid Price EV $6.94 (+12.3%)
Ask Profit $2.01 (+32.5%)
Bid Profit $0.76 (+12.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.25 (+20.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.01
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.76
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $13.99 (+126.4%)
Worst Case $0.92 (-85.1%)
Volatility +94.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$6.73
Avg Loss -$5.06
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.92 (-85.1%)
Std Dev $5.84
Avg Norm Float 0.2135
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 56h 11m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.57 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.62 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.12 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 04M 54S //TOTAL COST $6.18 //ASK PRICE EV $8.19 //BID PRICE EV $6.94 //ASK PROFIT $2.01 (+32.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.76 (+12.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $13.99 //VOLATILITY +94.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$13.99
+$7.81
+126.4%
$12.05
+$5.87
+95.0%
$1.94
13.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$11.82
+$5.64
+91.3%
$9.69
+$3.51
+56.8%
$2.13
18.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$1.51
-$4.68
-75.6%
$1.35
-$4.83
-78.2%
$0.15
10.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.17
-$5.01
-81.0%
$1.16
-$5.02
-81.2%
$0.01
1.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.02
-$5.16
-83.5%
$0.99
-$5.19
-84.0%
$0.03
3.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.96
-$5.22
-84.4%
$0.85
-$5.33
-86.2%
$0.11
11.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.92
-$5.26
-85.1%
$0.87
-$5.31
-85.9%
$0.05
5.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.14945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.992,
"optimistic_value": 13.88,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:04.320686Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.14945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.2135,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 0.92,
"optimistic_value": 0.92,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:59.866282Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.14945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 1.505,
"optimistic_value": 1.47,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 1.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:01:07.584230Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.143045,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 1.1735,
"optimistic_value": 1.17,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:42:38.770889Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.16226,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 0.9634999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.96,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 0.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:46:06.973339Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.10675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 1.021,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:58:04.003392Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_05b58a71a2877a06bfaf8354",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "529879287551817216",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:48:28.789416Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "497228190142008857",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:52:34.441361Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "643593744688088905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:47:50.669615Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "491598690699562262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:16.550692Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "497228137697395481",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:23.080348Z"
},
{
"price": 0.57,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864723318275141",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:35.666780Z"
},
{
"price": 0.62,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "508487189340727478",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:28.993188Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494975741590866474",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:23.080348Z"
},
{
"price": 1.12,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "506235337025762268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:06.404563Z"
},
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "502857689862550924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:05.146172Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 30.0% $26.59 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $24.63 Night Terror 8.0% $4.00 Space Cat 8.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $2.68 Dream Glade 8.0% $1.64 | $26.59 +86.4% | $16.42 +15.1% | 60.0% | +73.5% | $14.27 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 30.0% $7.30 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.56 Night Terror 8.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.96 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $0.96 Space Cat 8.0% $0.84 | $7.30 +120.7% | $3.33 +0.5% | 30.0% | +78.5% | $3.31 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Night Terror 6.0% $4.00 Space Cat 6.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $2.68 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $1.64 | $26.79 +64.8% | $18.79 +15.6% | 70.0% | +60.1% | $16.25 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Party Animal  40.0% $158.85 Rapid Eye Movement  20.0% $11.70 Melondrama  20.0% $11.59 Abyssal Apparition  20.0% $11.56 | $158.85 +156.2% | $70.51 +13.7% | 40.0% | +116.4% | $61.99 | — |