The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Poultrygeist
1x $0.12
Ensnared
1x $0.13
Foresight
1x $0.14
Scrawl
1x $0.14
Fraise Crane
2x $0.34
Sky Mandala
2x $0.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
30.0% $7.30
Sleeping Potion
30.0% $2.57
Night Terror
8.0% $1.00
Zombie Offensive
8.0% $0.96
Ticket to Hell
8.0% $0.90
Space Cat
8.0% $0.86
Max Win
$7.30 (+126.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.32 (+3.2%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+83.7%
Cost
$3.22
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.22
Ask Price EV $3.32 (+3.2%)
Bid Price EV $3.15 (-2.1%)
Ask Profit $0.10 (+3.2%)
Bid Profit $-0.07 (-2.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.17 (+5.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.10
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.07
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $7.30 (+126.8%)
Worst Case $0.81 (-74.8%)
Volatility +83.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$4.08
Avg Loss -$1.60
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.81 (-74.8%)
Std Dev $2.70
Avg Norm Float 0.4272
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 147h 22m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.57 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 15M 08S //TOTAL COST $3.22 //ASK PRICE EV $3.32 //BID PRICE EV $3.15 //ASK PROFIT $0.10 (+3.2%) //BID PROFIT $-0.07 (-2.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $7.30 //VOLATILITY +83.7% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$7.30
+$4.08
+126.8%
$7.15
+$3.93
+122.0%
$0.15
2.1%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$2.57
-$0.65
-20.3%
$2.25
-$0.97
-30.1%
$0.32
12.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.00
-$2.22
-69.0%
$0.87
-$2.35
-73.0%
$0.13
12.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.96
-$2.26
-70.2%
$0.81
-$2.41
-74.8%
$0.15
15.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.90
-$2.32
-72.0%
$0.85
-$2.37
-73.6%
$0.05
5.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.86
-$2.36
-73.2%
$0.82
-$2.40
-74.5%
$0.04
5.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.81
-$2.41
-74.8%
$0.80
-$2.42
-75.2%
$0.01
1.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.29904699999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.304,
"optimistic_value": 7.15,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 7.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:09.252150Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.29904699999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.5675,
"optimistic_value": 2.55,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:36.382021Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.42721,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 0.8105,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 0.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:59:45.366760Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.29904699999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 0.997,
"optimistic_value": 0.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:35.810766Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.2862307,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 0.8634999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.86,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:59:58.052187Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.3246796,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 0.9005000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 0.89,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 0.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:55:35.143741Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.213605,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 0.9604999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T22:26:44.444767Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_05b58a71a2877a06bfaf8354",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-2c6b935bb4eb",
"listing_id": "526501587738359969",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c6b935bb4eb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:45:00.726911Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "510738989041121542",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:57:51.110120Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "491598690699311594",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Foresight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:33.807698Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "518620288314724924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:43.242581Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "511864888985977137",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:53.581626Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "529879287551894796",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:56.970187Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "519746188258250360",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:56.970187Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "527627487625182380",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:15.538189Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "497228137697395481",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:10.078425Z"
},
{
"price": 0.57,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864723318275141",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:14.471573Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 30.0% $26.70 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $24.63 Night Terror 8.0% $4.00 Space Cat 8.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $2.68 Dream Glade 8.0% $1.64 | $26.70 +82.8% | $16.45 +12.6% | 60.0% | +72.0% | $14.61 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Night Terror 6.0% $1.56 Space Cat 6.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.05 Dream Glade 6.0% $0.90 | $13.99 +88.8% | $9.37 +26.4% | 70.0% | +68.5% | $7.41 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Party Animal  30.0% $37.12 Abyssal Apparition  23.3% $9.30 Rapid Eye Movement  23.3% $8.99 Melondrama  23.3% $8.87 | $37.12 +136.9% | $17.47 +11.5% | 30.0% | +82.1% | $15.67 | — |