The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Foresight
1x $0.31
Necro Jr.
2x $0.34
Scrawl
1x $0.47
Sky Mandala
3x $1.65
Warm Blooded
3x $2.27
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
30.0% $26.70
Sleeping Potion
30.0% $24.63
Night Terror
8.0% $4.00
Space Cat
8.0% $3.22
Zombie Offensive
8.0% $2.68
Dream Glade
8.0% $1.64
Max Win
$26.70 (+82.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.45 (+12.6%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+77.6%
Cost
$14.61
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $14.61
Ask Price EV $16.45 (+12.6%)
Bid Price EV $15.54 (+6.4%)
Ask Profit $1.84 (+12.6%)
Bid Profit $0.93 (+6.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.91 (+6.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.84
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.93
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $26.70 (+82.8%)
Worst Case $1.58 (-89.2%)
Volatility +77.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$11.06
Avg Loss -$11.99
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.58 (-89.2%)
Std Dev $11.33
Avg Norm Float 0.0997
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 27h 4m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.65 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.95 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$2.02 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 15M 08S //TOTAL COST $14.61 //ASK PRICE EV $16.45 //BID PRICE EV $15.54 //ASK PROFIT $1.84 (+12.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.93 (+6.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $26.70 //VOLATILITY +77.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$26.70
+$12.09
+82.8%
$26.08
+$11.47
+78.5%
$0.62
2.3%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$24.63
+$10.02
+68.6%
$22.28
+$7.67
+52.5%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$4.00
-$10.61
-72.6%
$3.98
-$10.63
-72.8%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.22
-$11.39
-78.0%
$3.19
-$11.42
-78.2%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.68
-$11.93
-81.7%
$2.67
-$11.94
-81.7%
$0.01
0.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.64
-$12.97
-88.8%
$1.62
-$12.99
-88.9%
$0.02
1.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.58
-$13.03
-89.2%
$1.45
-$13.16
-90.1%
$0.13
8.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.069776,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.7035,
"optimistic_value": 26.7,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:22.411318Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.069776,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 1.6369999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.63,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:23:06.525413Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.069776,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 4,
"optimistic_value": 4,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:57.543722Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0667856,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 3.22,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 3.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:20:04.477722Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0757568,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 1.5775000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 1.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:19.095103Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.04984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.68,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:32:01.164108Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_05b58a71a2877a06bfaf8354",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "643593744688088905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:57:14.895454Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "506235389468826600",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:50.758742Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "496102290329675579",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:50.758742Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "496102290329673671",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:53.512701Z"
},
{
"price": 1.65,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "497228190142449461",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:06.098520Z"
},
{
"price": 1.95,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "506234592364866552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:06.098520Z"
},
{
"price": 2.02,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "649223316122972524",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:06.098520Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "503983589620254115",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:57.987807Z"
},
{
"price": 2.48,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "500605724248646447",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:57.987807Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:57.987807Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 30.0% $7.30 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.57 Night Terror 8.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.90 Space Cat 8.0% $0.86 | $7.30 +126.8% | $3.32 +3.2% | 30.0% | +80.7% | $3.22 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Night Terror 6.0% $1.56 Space Cat 6.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.05 Dream Glade 6.0% $0.90 | $13.99 +88.8% | $9.37 +26.4% | 70.0% | +68.5% | $7.41 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Party Animal  30.0% $37.12 Abyssal Apparition  23.3% $9.30 Rapid Eye Movement  23.3% $8.99 Melondrama  23.3% $8.87 | $37.12 +136.9% | $17.47 +11.5% | 30.0% | +82.1% | $15.67 | — |