The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Necro Jr.
1x $0.34
Scrawl
2x $0.47
Spirit Board
1x $2.72
Sky Mandala
2x $2.02
Warm Blooded
4x $2.27
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
30.0% $26.70
Sleeping Potion
30.0% $24.63
Dream Glade
8.0% $8.63
Ticket to Hell
8.0% $4.90
Night Terror
8.0% $4.00
Space Cat
8.0% $3.22
Max Win
$26.70 (+25.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.27 (-18.9%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+48.8%
Cost
$21.30
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $21.30
Ask Price EV $17.27 (-18.9%)
Bid Price EV $16.37 (-23.1%)
Ask Profit $-4.03 (-18.9%)
Bid Profit $-4.93 (-23.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.90 (+4.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$4.03
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.93
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $26.70 (+25.4%)
Worst Case $2.68 (-87.4%)
Volatility +48.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$4.37
Avg Loss -$16.61
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.68 (-87.4%)
Std Dev $10.40
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 27h 4m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Factory New
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Factory New
$2.72 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$2.02 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.59 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 14M 49S //TOTAL COST $21.30 //ASK PRICE EV $17.27 //BID PRICE EV $16.37 //ASK PROFIT $-4.03 (-18.9%) //BID PROFIT $-4.93 (-23.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $26.70 //VOLATILITY +48.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
30.0%
$26.70
+$5.40
+25.4%
$26.08
+$4.78
+22.4%
$0.62
2.3%
—
WIN
30.0%
$24.63
+$3.33
+15.6%
$22.28
+$0.98
+4.6%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$8.63
-$12.67
-59.5%
$8.60
-$12.70
-59.6%
$0.03
0.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.90
-$16.40
-77.0%
$4.89
-$16.41
-77.0%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.00
-$17.30
-81.2%
$3.98
-$17.32
-81.3%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.22
-$18.08
-84.9%
$3.19
-$18.11
-85.0%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.68
-$18.62
-87.4%
$2.67
-$18.63
-87.5%
$0.01
0.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.048958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.7035,
"optimistic_value": 26.7,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:22.411318Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.048958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 8.628,
"optimistic_value": 8.6,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 8.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:17.967073Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.048958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 4,
"optimistic_value": 4,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:44:35.845224Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.04685980000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 3.22,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 3.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:20:04.477722Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.053154400000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 4.9035,
"optimistic_value": 4.9,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 4.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:44:29.757519Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.03497,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.68,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:32:01.164108Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_05b58a71a2877a06bfaf8354",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "506235389468826600",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:50.758742Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "496102290329673671",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:53.512701Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "500605889841761303",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:24.473930Z"
},
{
"price": 2.72,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "497228137696833341",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:57.638204Z"
},
{
"price": 2.02,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "649223316122972524",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:06.098520Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "503983589620254115",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:57.987807Z"
},
{
"price": 2.48,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "500605724248646447",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:57.987807Z"
},
{
"price": 2.59,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "518620235868493708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:57.987807Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:57.987807Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "501731789729270537",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:59.118278Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 30.0% $26.70 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $24.63 Night Terror 8.0% $4.00 Space Cat 8.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $2.68 Dream Glade 8.0% $1.64 | $26.70 +82.8% | $16.45 +12.6% | 60.0% | +72.0% | $14.61 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 30.0% $7.30 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.57 Night Terror 8.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.90 Space Cat 8.0% $0.86 | $7.30 +126.8% | $3.32 +3.2% | 30.0% | +80.7% | $3.22 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.99 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Night Terror 6.0% $1.56 Space Cat 6.0% $1.17 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.05 Dream Glade 6.0% $0.90 | $13.99 +88.8% | $9.37 +26.4% | 70.0% | +68.5% | $7.41 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Party Animal  30.0% $37.12 Abyssal Apparition  23.3% $9.30 Rapid Eye Movement  23.3% $8.99 Melondrama  23.3% $8.87 | $37.12 +136.9% | $17.47 +11.5% | 30.0% | +82.1% | $15.67 | — |