The Horizon Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9
Restricted → Classified FN ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Eco
1x $6.85
Urban Sovereign
7x $4.60
Amberline
1x $6.64
Galigator
1x $7.29
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
30.0% $290.04
Nightmare
3.3% $200.89
Kintsugi
30.0% $65.51
Eye of Athena
3.3% $63.84
Deathgaze
30.0% $61.53
Devourer
3.3% $55.93
Max Win
$290.04 (+187.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$135.81 (+34.6%)
Win %
33.3%
Volatility
+103.0%
Cost
$100.88
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $100.88
Ask Price EV $135.81 (+34.6%)
Bid Price EV $110.27 (+9.3%)
Ask Profit $34.93 (+34.6%)
Bid Profit $9.39 (+9.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $25.54 (+25.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$34.93
Bid Slippage Buffer +$9.39
Risk
Win Probability 33.3%
Loss Probability 66.7%
Best Case $290.04 (+187.5%)
Worst Case $55.93 (-44.6%)
Volatility +103.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 66.7%
Avg Win +$180.25
Avg Loss -$37.73
Bottom 5% Outcome $61.53 (-39.0%)
Std Dev $103.93
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 138h 41m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
CZ75-Auto | Eco
—
Minimal Wear
$6.85 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.60 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.65 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.64 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$7.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$16.99 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$17.66 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 03M 52S //TOTAL COST $100.88 //ASK PRICE EV $135.81 //BID PRICE EV $110.27 //ASK PROFIT $34.93 (+34.6%) //BID PROFIT $9.39 (+9.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 33.3% //BEST CASE $290.04 //VOLATILITY +103.0% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$290.04
+$189.16
+187.5%
$229.11
+$128.23
+127.1%
$60.93
21.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
3.3%
$200.89
+$100.01
+99.1%
$160.05
+$59.17
+58.7%
$40.84
20.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$65.51
-$35.37
-35.1%
$55.11
-$45.77
-45.4%
$10.40
15.9%
—
LOSS
3.3%
$63.84
-$37.04
-36.7%
$51.66
-$49.22
-48.8%
$12.18
19.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$61.53
-$39.35
-39.0%
$55.38
-$45.50
-45.1%
$6.15
10.0%
—
NUKE THIN BID
3.3%
$55.93
-$44.95
-44.6%
$39.93
-$60.95
-60.4%
$16.00
28.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-20|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-20"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 290.0445,
"optimistic_value": 279.45,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 229.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:40.031809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 65.5065,
"optimistic_value": 64.74,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 55.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:32.344841Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 61.528999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 59.66,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 55.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:11:12.659693Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.048873999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5af9f375159d",
"realistic_value": 63.837,
"optimistic_value": 62.99,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Eye of Athena",
"conservative_value": 51.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Horizon Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:24:22.193692Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5af9f375159d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2746c427a1c5",
"realistic_value": 200.887,
"optimistic_value": 195.98,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Nightmare",
"conservative_value": 160.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Horizon Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:33.043467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2746c427a1c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.055855999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9d723cee972d",
"realistic_value": 55.925000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 44.74,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Devourer",
"conservative_value": 39.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Horizon Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:47:44.430288Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9d723cee972d.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_051fc033a8a8d408f19207e0",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 6.85,
"skin_id": "skin-25f54c22ac43",
"listing_id": "493850438106457624",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Eco",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25f54c22ac43.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:42.366102Z"
},
{
"price": 4.6,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "511864888984804653",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:34.353441Z"
},
{
"price": 4.65,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "509613089304042939",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:34.353441Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:34.353441Z"
},
{
"price": 6.64,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182346589",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:38:48.395545Z"
},
{
"price": 7.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "524249787960966687",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:31.526611Z"
},
{
"price": 15.3,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "518619491430346084",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:44.691704Z"
},
{
"price": 15.5,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "496101493270757831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:44.691704Z"
},
{
"price": 16.99,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "523123091079375442",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:44.691704Z"
},
{
"price": 17.66,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506234592361187964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:44.691704Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-20:1+collection-set-community-37:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Horizon Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $63.86 Nightmare 3.3% $37.40 Eye of Athena 3.3% $13.48 Kintsugi 30.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 30.0% $11.91 Devourer 3.3% $11.66 | $63.86 +154.1% | $28.61 +13.9% | 33.3% | +93.5% | $25.13 | — |
The Horizon Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $126.41 Nightmare 3.3% $79.93 Eye of Athena 3.3% $26.82 Devourer 3.3% $25.31 Kintsugi 30.0% $23.12 Deathgaze 30.0% $20.83 | $126.41 +137.0% | $55.51 +4.1% | 33.3% | +89.2% | $53.34 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Horizon Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Nightmare 6.7% $200.89 Kintsugi 26.7% $65.93 Eye of Athena 6.7% $63.84 Deathgaze 26.7% $61.53 Devourer 6.7% $55.93 | $290.04 +189.7% | $132.71 +32.5% | 33.3% | +100.7% | $100.13 | — |
The Horizon Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Nightmare 10.0% $200.89 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Eye of Athena 10.0% $63.84 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.53 Devourer 10.0% $55.93 | $290.04 +185.9% | $129.38 +27.5% | 33.3% | +96.2% | $101.44 | — |
The Horizon Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Nightmare 13.3% $200.89 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.93 Eye of Athena 13.3% $63.84 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.53 Devourer 13.3% $55.93 | $290.04 +185.8% | $126.25 +24.4% | 33.3% | +92.7% | $101.50 | — |
The Horizon Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Nightmare 16.7% $200.89 Kintsugi 16.7% $65.93 Eye of Athena 16.7% $63.84 Deathgaze 16.7% $61.53 Devourer 16.7% $55.93 | $290.04 +179.3% | $123.03 +18.5% | 33.3% | +87.0% | $103.85 | — |
The Horizon Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $290.04 Nightmare 20.0% $200.89 Kintsugi 13.3% $65.51 Eye of Athena 20.0% $63.84 Deathgaze 13.3% $61.53 Devourer 20.0% $55.93 | $290.04 +172.2% | $119.74 +12.4% | 33.3% | +81.1% | $106.55 | — |
The Horizon Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $290.04 Nightmare 23.3% $200.89 Kintsugi 10.0% $65.51 Eye of Athena 23.3% $63.84 Deathgaze 10.0% $61.53 Devourer 23.3% $55.93 | $290.04 +161.3% | $116.53 +5.0% | 33.3% | +73.9% | $111.02 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Horizon Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum  16.0% $10.69 PAW  4.0% $9.64 Firebreathing  16.0% $6.12 Powercore  4.0% $3.94 Galigator 16.0% $3.26 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $3.23 | $10.69 +162.7% | $5.05 +24.1% | 36.0% | +66.0% | $4.07 | — |
The Horizon Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Neon Rider  5.0% $589.35 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 Code Red  5.0% $367.26 | $843.46 +54.1% | $645.59 +18.0% | 50.0% | +33.3% | $547.21 | — |