The Horizon Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9
Restricted → Classified WW ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Well-Worn StatTrak™
Inputs
High Seas
1x $1.84
Amberline
8x $2.08
Urban Sovereign
1x $3.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
30.0% $45.29
Nightmare
3.3% $30.65
Eye of Athena
3.3% $13.48
Devourer
3.3% $11.66
Deathgaze
30.0% $9.04
Kintsugi
30.0% $7.96
Max Win
$45.29 (+90.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$20.55 (-13.7%)
Win %
33.3%
Volatility
+70.1%
Cost
$23.80
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $23.80
Ask Price EV $20.55 (-13.7%)
Bid Price EV $19.04 (-20.0%)
Ask Profit $-3.25 (-13.7%)
Bid Profit $-4.76 (-20.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.50 (+6.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.25
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.76
Risk
Win Probability 33.3%
Loss Probability 66.7%
Best Case $45.29 (+90.3%)
Worst Case $7.96 (-66.6%)
Volatility +70.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 66.7%
Avg Win +$20.02
Avg Loss -$14.89
Bottom 5% Outcome $7.96 (-66.6%)
Std Dev $16.69
Avg Norm Float 0.4306
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 6m
Oldest Output Price 139h 34m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
G3SG1 | High Seas
—
Battle-Scarred
$1.84 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.09 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.33 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$3.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 13S //TOTAL COST $23.80 //ASK PRICE EV $20.55 //BID PRICE EV $19.04 //ASK PROFIT $-3.25 (-13.7%) //BID PROFIT $-4.76 (-20.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 33.3% //BEST CASE $45.29 //VOLATILITY +70.1% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$45.29
+$21.48
+90.3%
$41.72
+$17.92
+75.3%
$3.56
7.9%
—
WIN
3.3%
$30.65
+$6.85
+28.8%
$30.10
+$6.30
+26.5%
$0.55
1.8%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$13.48
-$10.32
-43.3%
$11.70
-$12.10
-50.8%
$1.78
13.2%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$11.66
-$12.14
-51.0%
$10.67
-$13.13
-55.2%
$0.99
8.5%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$9.04
-$14.76
-62.0%
$8.25
-$15.55
-65.3%
$0.79
8.7%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$7.96
-$15.84
-66.6%
$7.67
-$16.13
-67.8%
$0.29
3.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-20|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-20"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.43056,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 45.285,
"optimistic_value": 44.9,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 41.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.425805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.43056,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 7.96,
"optimistic_value": 7.89,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 7.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:15.433714Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.43056,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 9.0395,
"optimistic_value": 8.98,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 8.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:22.157713Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.301392,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5af9f375159d",
"realistic_value": 13.4845,
"optimistic_value": 13.39,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Eye of Athena",
"conservative_value": 11.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Horizon Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:26.541061Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5af9f375159d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.43056,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2746c427a1c5",
"realistic_value": 30.653,
"optimistic_value": 30.52,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Nightmare",
"conservative_value": 30.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Horizon Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:22:42.298336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2746c427a1c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.34444800000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9d723cee972d",
"realistic_value": 11.6615,
"optimistic_value": 11.35,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Devourer",
"conservative_value": 10.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Horizon Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Devourer (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:14:06.161036Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9d723cee972d.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_051fc033a8a8d408f19207e0",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.84,
"skin_id": "skin-d08b1f9525cb",
"listing_id": "500605092736114295",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | High Seas (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "G3SG1 | High Seas",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d08b1f9525cb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:54:45.225379Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "507361289452694821",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:29.984381Z"
},
{
"price": 2.09,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "514116688949678190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:29.984381Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "490472738292168531",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:29.984381Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "525375635593980187",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:14.092827Z"
},
{
"price": 2.31,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "505109489448722396",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:14.092827Z"
},
{
"price": 2.33,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "507361237008630373",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:14.092827Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182385829",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:14.092827Z"
},
{
"price": 3.17,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "496102290329110667",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:13.699653Z"
},
{
"price": 3.19,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "493850490550002916",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:15.434355Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-20:1+collection-set-community-37:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Horizon Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $63.86 Nightmare 3.3% $37.40 Eye of Athena 3.3% $13.48 Kintsugi 30.0% $12.65 Devourer 3.3% $11.66 Deathgaze 30.0% $11.60 | $63.86 +151.2% | $28.52 +12.2% | 33.3% | +92.7% | $25.42 | — |
The Horizon Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $126.41 Nightmare 3.3% $79.93 Eye of Athena 3.3% $26.82 Devourer 3.3% $25.31 Kintsugi 30.0% $22.62 Deathgaze 30.0% $20.41 | $126.41 +150.8% | $55.23 +9.6% | 33.3% | +94.7% | $50.41 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Horizon Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Nightmare 6.7% $200.89 Kintsugi 26.7% $65.51 Eye of Athena 6.7% $63.84 Deathgaze 26.7% $61.53 Devourer 6.7% $55.93 | $290.04 +189.7% | $132.60 +32.4% | 33.3% | +100.7% | $100.13 | — |
The Horizon Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Nightmare 10.0% $200.89 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Eye of Athena 10.0% $63.84 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 Devourer 10.0% $55.93 | $290.04 +185.9% | $129.37 +27.5% | 33.3% | +96.2% | $101.44 | — |
The Horizon Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Nightmare 13.3% $200.89 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Eye of Athena 13.3% $63.84 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.53 Devourer 13.3% $55.93 | $290.04 +180.9% | $126.17 +22.2% | 33.3% | +91.2% | $103.26 | — |
The Horizon Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Nightmare 16.7% $200.89 Kintsugi 16.7% $65.51 Eye of Athena 16.7% $63.84 Deathgaze 16.7% $61.53 Devourer 16.7% $55.93 | $290.04 +176.6% | $122.95 +17.2% | 33.3% | +86.2% | $104.87 | — |
The Horizon Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $290.04 Nightmare 20.0% $200.89 Kintsugi 13.3% $65.51 Eye of Athena 20.0% $63.84 Deathgaze 13.3% $61.47 Devourer 20.0% $55.93 | $290.04 +172.2% | $119.73 +12.4% | 33.3% | +81.1% | $106.55 | — |
The Horizon Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $290.04 Nightmare 23.3% $200.89 Kintsugi 10.0% $65.51 Eye of Athena 23.3% $63.84 Deathgaze 10.0% $61.47 Devourer 23.3% $55.93 | $290.04 +161.3% | $116.52 +5.0% | 33.3% | +73.9% | $111.02 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Horizon Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum  18.0% $10.69 PAW  2.0% $9.64 Firebreathing  18.0% $6.12 Powercore  2.0% $3.94 Galigator  18.0% $3.26 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $3.23 | $10.69 +155.8% | $5.20 +24.4% | 38.0% | +65.0% | $4.18 | — |