The Horizon Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9

Restricted → Classified MW ST 10 items

Field-Tested +12.2%Minimal Wear +9.6%Well-Worn -13.7%

Contract

Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear StatTrak™

Inputs

High Seas

1x $6.23

Amberline

2x $3.17

Urban Sovereign

6x $3.19

Galigator

1x $7.29

↓

Possible Outputs

Crane Flight

30.0% $126.41

Nightmare

3.3% $79.93

Eye of Athena

3.3% $26.82

Devourer

3.3% $25.31

Kintsugi

30.0% $22.62

Deathgaze

30.0% $20.41

Max Win

$126.41 (+150.8%)

EV (ROI %)

$55.23 (+9.6%)

Win %

33.3%

Volatility

+94.7%

Cost

$50.41

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $50.41

Ask Price EV $55.23 (+9.6%)

Bid Price EV $49.53 (-1.7%)

Ask Profit $4.82 (+9.6%)

Bid Profit $-0.88 (-1.7%)

Liquidity Gap $5.70 (+11.3%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.82

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.88

Risk

Win Probability 33.3%

Loss Probability 66.7%

Best Case $126.41 (+150.8%)

Worst Case $20.41 (-59.5%)

Volatility +94.7%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 66.7%

Avg Win +$71.35

Avg Loss -$28.44

Bottom 5% Outcome $20.41 (-59.5%)

Std Dev $47.75

Avg Norm Float 0.1467

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 6m

Oldest Output Price 139h 33m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Tight

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

G3SG1 | High Seas

—

Minimal Wear

$6.23 Float: HIDDEN

MP7 | Amberline

—

Field-Tested

$3.17 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

—

Field-Tested

$3.19 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

—

Field-Tested

$3.64 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

—

Minimal Wear

$4.72 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

—

Minimal Wear

$4.75 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

—

Minimal Wear

$5.38 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

—

Minimal Wear

$5.40 Float: HIDDEN

MP7 | Amberline

—

Minimal Wear

$6.64 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Galigator

—

Minimal Wear

$7.29 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 02M 13S //TOTAL COST $50.41 //ASK PRICE EV $55.23 //BID PRICE EV $49.53 //ASK PROFIT $4.82 (+9.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.88 (-1.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 33.3% //BEST CASE $126.41 //VOLATILITY +94.7% //

Possible Outputs · 6

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-20|Restricted|stattrak",
      "item_count": 1,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-20"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
      "item_count": 9,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.14675,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
      "realistic_value": 126.41149999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 124,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
      "conservative_value": 112.39,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.452841Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.14675,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
      "realistic_value": 22.619999999999997,
      "optimistic_value": 22.2,
      "output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
      "conservative_value": 20.66,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:16.017954Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.14675,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
      "realistic_value": 20.407,
      "optimistic_value": 19.98,
      "output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
      "conservative_value": 19.37,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:15.644226Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.10272499999999998,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-5af9f375159d",
      "realistic_value": 26.8175,
      "optimistic_value": 26.45,
      "output_full_name": "FAMAS | Eye of Athena",
      "conservative_value": 23.4,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Horizon Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:27:04.206498Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5af9f375159d.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.14675,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2746c427a1c5",
      "realistic_value": 79.92800000000001,
      "optimistic_value": 76.4,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Nightmare",
      "conservative_value": 71.55,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Horizon Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:23:23.083224Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2746c427a1c5.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.1174,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9d723cee972d",
      "realistic_value": 25.3085,
      "optimistic_value": 24.99,
      "output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Devourer",
      "conservative_value": 19.26,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Horizon Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Devourer (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:11:29.119233Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9d723cee972d.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_051fc033a8a8d408f19207e0",
  "input_rarity": "Restricted",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 6.23,
      "skin_id": "skin-d08b1f9525cb",
      "listing_id": "751679596846692815",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-20",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | High Seas (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "G3SG1 | High Seas",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d08b1f9525cb.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:48.824511Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.17,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "496102290329110667",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:13.699653Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "493850490550002916",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:15.434355Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.64,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "498354037510570279",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:15.434355Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.72,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "500605889840023871",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:14.971761Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.75,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "521997988014719718",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:14.971761Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.38,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "500605837398261191",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:14.971761Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "506235337025176368",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:14.971761Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 6.64,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "492724538182346589",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:52:30.419249Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 7.29,
      "skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
      "listing_id": "524249787960966687",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:50:13.555448Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Classified",
  "stattrak_mode": true,
  "composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-20:1+collection-set-community-37:9"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Horizon Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST	Crane Flight 30.0% $63.86 Nightmare 3.3% $37.40 Eye of Athena 3.3% $13.48 Kintsugi 30.0% $12.65 Devourer 3.3% $11.66 Deathgaze 30.0% $11.60	$63.86 +151.2%	$28.52 +12.2%	33.3%	+92.7%	$25.42	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Horizon Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST	Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Nightmare 6.7% $200.89 Kintsugi 26.7% $65.51 Eye of Athena 6.7% $63.84 Deathgaze 26.7% $61.53 Devourer 6.7% $55.93	$290.04 +189.7%	$132.60 +32.4%	33.3%	+100.7%	$100.13	—
The Horizon Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST	Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Nightmare 10.0% $200.89 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Eye of Athena 10.0% $63.84 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 Devourer 10.0% $55.93	$290.04 +185.9%	$129.37 +27.5%	33.3%	+96.2%	$101.44	—
The Horizon Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST	Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Nightmare 13.3% $200.89 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Eye of Athena 13.3% $63.84 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.53 Devourer 13.3% $55.93	$290.04 +180.9%	$126.17 +22.2%	33.3%	+91.2%	$103.26	—
The Horizon Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST	Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Nightmare 16.7% $200.89 Kintsugi 16.7% $65.51 Eye of Athena 16.7% $63.84 Deathgaze 16.7% $61.53 Devourer 16.7% $55.93	$290.04 +176.6%	$122.95 +17.2%	33.3%	+86.2%	$104.87	—
The Horizon Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST	Crane Flight 13.3% $290.04 Nightmare 20.0% $200.89 Kintsugi 13.3% $65.51 Eye of Athena 20.0% $63.84 Deathgaze 13.3% $61.47 Devourer 20.0% $55.93	$290.04 +172.2%	$119.73 +12.4%	33.3%	+81.1%	$106.55	—
The Horizon Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST	Crane Flight 10.0% $290.04 Nightmare 23.3% $200.89 Kintsugi 10.0% $65.51 Eye of Athena 23.3% $63.84 Deathgaze 10.0% $61.47 Devourer 23.3% $55.93	$290.04 +161.3%	$116.52 +5.0%	33.3%	+73.9%	$111.02	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Horizon Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST	Electrum 18.0% $10.69 PAW 2.0% $9.64 Firebreathing 18.0% $6.12 Powercore 2.0% $3.94 Galigator 18.0% $3.26 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $3.23	$10.69 +155.8%	$5.20 +24.4%	38.0%	+65.0%	$4.18	—