The Revolution Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Fragments
3x $0.12
Re.built
1x $0.14
Rebel
1x $0.14
Aeolian Light
4x $0.25
Grip Tape
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
25.0% $5.85
Trace Lock
25.0% $2.24
Emphorosaur-S
10.0% $0.75
Umbral Rabbit
10.0% $0.74
Neoqueen
10.0% $0.67
Banana Cannon
10.0% $0.64
Max Win
$5.85 (+158.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.37 (+4.7%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+93.4%
Cost
$2.26
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.26
Ask Price EV $2.37 (+4.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.07 (-8.2%)
Ask Profit $0.11 (+4.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.19 (-8.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.29 (+12.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.11
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.19
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+158.9%)
Worst Case $0.63 (-72.3%)
Volatility +93.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$3.59
Avg Loss -$1.06
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.63 (-72.3%)
Std Dev $2.11
Avg Norm Float 0.4259
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 141h 34m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 10M 41S //TOTAL COST $2.26 //ASK PRICE EV $2.37 //BID PRICE EV $2.07 //ASK PROFIT $0.11 (+4.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.19 (-8.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +93.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$5.85
+$3.59
+158.9%
$4.91
+$2.65
+117.3%
$0.94
16.1%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$2.24
-$0.02
-0.9%
$2.14
-$0.12
-5.3%
$0.10
4.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.75
-$1.51
-66.9%
$0.70
-$1.56
-69.0%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.74
-$1.52
-67.2%
$0.69
-$1.57
-69.5%
$0.05
6.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.67
-$1.59
-70.3%
$0.61
-$1.65
-73.0%
$0.06
9.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.64
-$1.62
-71.5%
$0.55
-$1.71
-75.7%
$0.09
14.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.63
-$1.63
-72.3%
$0.57
-$1.69
-74.8%
$0.06
9.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.3194325,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.298137,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.2395,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:24:20.382207Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.3194325,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 0.7404999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T03:55:11.491583Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.34072800000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 0.7475,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T18:33:49.520496Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.45702780000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 0.627,
"optimistic_value": 0.62,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T21:57:19.347681Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.255546,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 0.671,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:27:33.420383Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.42591,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 0.6435,
"optimistic_value": 0.64,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 0.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:27:26.407590Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_037342176fdf6645f4d15415",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "528753387757643949",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:50:35.591883Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "505109437007426564",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:50:35.591883Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "518619491424619600",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:21.261810Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "518619491429205748",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:45:32.079224Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "506235389469816816",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:53.229051Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "526501587737062601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:06.984080Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488724825018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:06.984080Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "508487136897723158",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:06.984080Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "493850490550151956",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:06.984080Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "499479989896498261",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:33.256443Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.51 Sakkaku 10.0% $1.43 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 10.0% $1.10 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +225.7% | $4.71 +25.3% | 50.0% | +116.9% | $3.76 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 25.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 25.0% $14.30 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $4.30 Neoqueen 10.0% $3.17 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $1.62 Banana Cannon 10.0% $1.61 | $26.93 +169.5% | $11.52 +15.3% | 50.0% | +96.6% | $9.99 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.48 Sakkaku 12.0% $1.44 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $1.28 Neoqueen 12.0% $1.03 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +305.5% | $3.96 +31.2% | 40.0% | +139.2% | $3.02 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.48 Sakkaku 4.0% $1.44 Umbral Rabbit 4.0% $1.28 Neoqueen 4.0% $1.09 Emphorosaur-S 4.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +121.4% | $6.90 +24.7% | 40.0% | +79.0% | $5.53 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.51 Sakkaku 14.0% $1.43 Umbral Rabbit 14.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 14.0% $1.10 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +369.2% | $3.25 +24.5% | 30.0% | +147.9% | $2.61 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.51 Sakkaku 8.0% $1.44 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $1.33 Neoqueen 8.0% $1.09 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +178.9% | $5.45 +24.1% | 60.0% | +102.0% | $4.39 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 45.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 45.0% $15.24 Umbral Rabbit 2.0% $4.30 Neoqueen 2.0% $3.17 Emphorosaur-S 2.0% $1.64 Banana Cannon 2.0% $1.61 | $26.93 +72.4% | $19.22 +23.0% | 45.0% | +47.8% | $15.62 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.48 Sakkaku 6.0% $1.44 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $1.33 Neoqueen 6.0% $1.09 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +143.4% | $6.17 +22.6% | 35.0% | +88.9% | $5.03 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  40.0% $27.17 Wild Child  20.0% $5.70 Duality  20.0% $5.38 Wicked Sick  20.0% $5.38 | $27.17 +131.6% | $14.16 +20.7% | 40.0% | +90.6% | $11.73 | — |