The Revolution Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Fragments
2x $0.32
Re.built
1x $0.43
Cyberforce
1x $1.62
Featherweight
1x $1.63
Creep
1x $1.43
Aeolian Light
2x $1.92
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
25.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
25.0% $15.24
Banana Cannon
10.0% $9.06
Emphorosaur-S
10.0% $5.76
Umbral Rabbit
10.0% $4.30
Neoqueen
10.0% $3.17
Max Win
$26.93 (+74.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$12.92 (-16.4%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+60.4%
Cost
$15.45
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $15.45
Ask Price EV $12.92 (-16.4%)
Bid Price EV $12.31 (-20.3%)
Ask Profit $-2.53 (-16.4%)
Bid Profit $-3.14 (-20.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.61 (+3.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.53
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.14
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+74.3%)
Worst Case $1.44 (-90.7%)
Volatility +60.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$11.48
Avg Loss -$7.20
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.44 (-90.7%)
Std Dev $9.33
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 2h 16m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Factory New
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Featherweight
—
Factory New
$1.63 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$1.92 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 11M 04S //TOTAL COST $15.45 //ASK PRICE EV $12.92 //BID PRICE EV $12.31 //ASK PROFIT $-2.53 (-16.4%) //BID PROFIT $-3.14 (-20.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +60.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$26.93
+$11.48
+74.3%
$26.63
+$11.18
+72.4%
$0.30
1.1%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$15.24
-$0.21
-1.4%
$13.15
-$2.30
-14.9%
$2.09
13.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.06
-$6.39
-41.4%
$9.05
-$6.40
-41.4%
$0.01
0.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$5.76
-$9.69
-62.7%
$5.70
-$9.75
-63.1%
$0.06
1.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.30
-$11.15
-72.1%
$4.29
-$11.16
-72.2%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.17
-$12.28
-79.5%
$3.16
-$12.29
-79.5%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.44
-$14.01
-90.7%
$1.42
-$14.03
-90.8%
$0.02
1.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.052462499999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.048964999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 15.2405,
"optimistic_value": 14.81,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:53:53.680630Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.052462499999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 4.3035,
"optimistic_value": 4.3,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 4.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:09.863236Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.05596,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 5.764,
"optimistic_value": 5.75,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 5.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:59.448219Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.250571,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 1.44,
"optimistic_value": 1.44,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 1.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:14:29.979912Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.04197,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.17,
"optimistic_value": 3.17,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:41.879123Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 9.06,
"optimistic_value": 9.06,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 9.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:10.241022Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_037342176fdf6645f4d15415",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "634586617398538707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:04.453608Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "497228137695378905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:57:31.013788Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "508487189340038978",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:02.078930Z"
},
{
"price": 1.62,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "510738823412252854",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:21.565939Z"
},
{
"price": 1.63,
"skin_id": "skin-2f564d56b7ff",
"listing_id": "517494222851162194",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Featherweight (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Featherweight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f564d56b7ff.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:50:45.077658Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "507361289453312365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:56.235536Z"
},
{
"price": 1.92,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "493850490549357652",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:31.192640Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "520872088106386248",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:31.192640Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "520872088106613300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:17.443395Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:57:19.004322Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.51 Sakkaku 10.0% $1.44 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $1.39 Neoqueen 10.0% $1.03 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +242.0% | $4.71 +31.7% | 50.0% | +122.7% | $3.58 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 25.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 25.0% $15.24 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $4.30 Neoqueen 10.0% $3.17 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $1.64 Banana Cannon 10.0% $1.61 | $26.93 +166.9% | $11.76 +16.5% | 50.0% | +96.1% | $10.09 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 25.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.17 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $0.74 Neoqueen 10.0% $0.65 Banana Cannon 10.0% $0.64 | $5.85 +158.9% | $2.35 +3.8% | 25.0% | +90.4% | $2.26 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.57 Sakkaku 12.0% $1.43 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $1.39 Neoqueen 12.0% $1.10 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +312.3% | $4.00 +34.8% | 40.0% | +141.0% | $2.97 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.45 Sakkaku 8.0% $1.44 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $1.39 Neoqueen 8.0% $1.04 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +190.9% | $5.43 +29.0% | 60.0% | +106.5% | $4.21 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.45 Sakkaku 6.0% $1.44 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $1.39 Neoqueen 6.0% $1.04 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +152.5% | $6.16 +27.0% | 35.0% | +92.2% | $4.85 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.51 Sakkaku 14.0% $1.44 Umbral Rabbit 14.0% $1.39 Neoqueen 14.0% $1.03 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +374.6% | $3.25 +26.0% | 30.0% | +149.5% | $2.58 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.57 Sakkaku 4.0% $1.43 Umbral Rabbit 4.0% $1.39 Neoqueen 4.0% $1.10 Emphorosaur-S 4.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +121.8% | $6.94 +25.7% | 40.0% | +78.7% | $5.52 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.57 Sakkaku 2.0% $1.43 Umbral Rabbit 2.0% $1.39 Neoqueen 2.0% $1.10 Emphorosaur-S 2.0% $0.75 | $12.25 +97.2% | $7.67 +23.6% | 45.0% | +66.7% | $6.21 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  40.0% $27.17 Wild Child  20.0% $5.70 Duality  20.0% $5.38 Wicked Sick  20.0% $5.38 | $27.17 +131.6% | $14.16 +20.7% | 40.0% | +90.6% | $11.73 | — |