The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Genesis Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Necro Jr.
3x $0.41
Foresight
1x $0.81
Spirit Board
1x $1.29
Lifted Spirits
1x $1.72
Caged
4x $0.83
↓
Possible Outputs
Liquidation
8.0% $46.21
Cat Fight
8.0% $10.59
Continuum
8.0% $10.38
Ocular
8.0% $10.36
Angel Eyes
8.0% $10.13
Ticket to Hell
12.0% $10.13
Max Win
$46.21 (+336.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.53 (-0.6%)
Win %
16.0%
Volatility
+103.5%
Cost
$10.59
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $10.59
Ask Price EV $10.53 (-0.6%)
Bid Price EV $9.11 (-14.0%)
Ask Profit $-0.06 (-0.6%)
Bid Profit $-1.48 (-14.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.41 (+13.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.06
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.48
Risk
Win Probability 16.0%
Loss Probability 84.0%
Best Case $46.21 (+336.3%)
Worst Case $2.39 (-77.5%)
Volatility +103.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$17.81
Avg Loss -$3.47
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.39 (-77.5%)
Std Dev $10.96
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 13m
Oldest Output Price 150h 26m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Factory New
$0.81 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Factory New
$1.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Factory New
$1.72 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Minimal Wear
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Minimal Wear
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Factory New
$1.95 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 33M 30S //TOTAL COST $10.59 //ASK PRICE EV $10.53 //BID PRICE EV $9.11 //ASK PROFIT $-0.06 (-0.6%) //BID PROFIT $-1.48 (-14.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 16.0% //BEST CASE $46.21 //VOLATILITY +103.5% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$46.21
+$35.61
+336.3%
$40.17
+$29.58
+279.3%
$6.03
13.1%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$10.59
+$0.00
+0.0%
$9.06
-$1.53
-14.4%
$1.53
14.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$10.38
-$0.21
-2.0%
$8.34
-$2.25
-21.2%
$2.04
19.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$10.36
-$0.23
-2.2%
$8.24
-$2.35
-22.2%
$2.12
20.4%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$10.13
-$0.46
-4.3%
$8.90
-$1.69
-16.0%
$1.23
12.2%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$10.13
-$0.46
-4.4%
$8.42
-$2.17
-20.5%
$1.71
16.8%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$7.92
-$2.67
-25.2%
$7.88
-$2.71
-25.6%
$0.04
0.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$5.85
-$4.74
-44.8%
$5.08
-$5.51
-52.0%
$0.77
13.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.99
-$7.61
-71.8%
$2.62
-$7.97
-75.3%
$0.36
12.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.39
-$8.21
-77.5%
$2.13
-$8.46
-79.9%
$0.26
10.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 5.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:28.642814Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.048922999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 7.921,
"optimistic_value": 7.9,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 7.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:18.914964Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0468263,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 2.985,
"optimistic_value": 2.95,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T20:23:52.712289Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.053116399999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 10.125,
"optimistic_value": 10.09,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 8.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:05:44.991761Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.034945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.3850000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 2.35,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:38.479690Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 10.133000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 8.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:12.524914Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 46.205,
"optimistic_value": 46.03,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 40.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:27.351229Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 10.5945,
"optimistic_value": 10.5,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 9.06,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:37.996079Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 10.3565,
"optimistic_value": 10.29,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 8.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Ocular (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:16.775916Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 10.383000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10.32,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 8.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Continuum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:00.535591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ffff8ddb6d115e9769090a91",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "497228190142503425",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:46.253451Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "501730992851159909",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:46.253451Z"
},
{
"price": 0.81,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "503983642532457235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:22.308371Z"
},
{
"price": 1.29,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "509613142167797547",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:03.696933Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "527627540537841332",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:04.654102Z"
},
{
"price": 1.72,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "506235389469297444",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:05.589094Z"
},
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "631208307252371440",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Caged (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:15.126000Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "509612923503326559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Caged (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:15.126000Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "509613142167317703",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Caged (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:15.126000Z"
},
{
"price": 1.95,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "518620288314673192",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Caged (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:17.867423Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-30:6+collection-set-community-36:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Genesis Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 8.0% $21.44 Angel Eyes 8.0% $4.21 Night Terror 12.0% $4.12 Cat Fight 8.0% $4.11 Continuum 8.0% $4.01 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $3.94 | $21.44 +465.7% | $4.43 +17.0% | 64.0% | +127.1% | $3.79 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Genesis Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Liquidation 8.0% $11.18 Night Terror 12.0% $2.66 Cat Fight 8.0% $2.26 Angel Eyes 8.0% $2.07 Ocular 8.0% $2.07 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $1.87 | $11.18 +406.1% | $2.44 +10.6% | 28.0% | +112.5% | $2.21 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Genesis Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 16.0% $21.44 Angel Eyes 16.0% $4.21 Night Terror 4.0% $4.12 Cat Fight 16.0% $4.11 Continuum 16.0% $4.01 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $3.94 | $21.44 +295.6% | $6.50 +19.9% | 16.0% | +115.1% | $5.42 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Genesis Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 12.0% $21.44 Angel Eyes 12.0% $4.21 Night Terror 8.0% $4.12 Cat Fight 12.0% $4.11 Continuum 12.0% $4.01 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $3.94 | $21.44 +363.0% | $5.47 +18.2% | 12.0% | +121.4% | $4.63 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Genesis Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 14.0% $21.44 Angel Eyes 14.0% $4.21 Night Terror 6.0% $4.12 Cat Fight 14.0% $4.11 Continuum 14.0% $4.01 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $3.94 | $21.44 +322.0% | $5.98 +17.8% | 14.0% | +117.1% | $5.08 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Genesis Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 18.0% $21.44 Angel Eyes 18.0% $4.21 Night Terror 2.0% $4.12 Cat Fight 18.0% $4.11 Continuum 18.0% $4.01 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $3.94 | $21.44 +259.7% | $7.02 +17.7% | 18.0% | +109.2% | $5.96 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Genesis Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 10.0% $21.44 Angel Eyes 10.0% $4.21 Night Terror 10.0% $4.12 Cat Fight 10.0% $4.11 Continuum 10.0% $4.01 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $3.94 | $21.44 +406.8% | $4.95 +17.0% | 10.0% | +124.1% | $4.23 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Genesis Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 6.0% $21.44 Angel Eyes 6.0% $4.21 Night Terror 14.0% $4.12 Cat Fight 6.0% $4.11 Continuum 6.0% $4.01 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $3.94 | $21.44 +534.3% | $3.92 +15.8% | 58.0% | +127.0% | $3.38 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Genesis Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Liquidation 4.0% $21.44 Angel Eyes 4.0% $4.21 Night Terror 16.0% $4.12 Cat Fight 4.0% $4.11 Continuum 4.0% $4.01 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $3.94 | $21.44 +589.4% | $3.40 +9.3% | 52.0% | +116.8% | $3.11 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Genesis Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Ice Coaled  16.7% $26.55 Smoking Kills  16.7% $21.68 Mirror Mosaic  16.7% $18.83 Rapid Eye Movement  16.7% $9.11 Abyssal Apparition  16.7% $8.58 Melondrama  16.7% $8.14 | $26.55 +112.7% | $15.48 +24.1% | 50.0% | +58.0% | $12.48 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Genesis Collection ×4 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | The Oligarch  20.0% $167.88 Full Throttle  20.0% $126.18 Starlight Protector  30.0% $95.25 Nightwish  30.0% $92.29 | $167.88 +63.3% | $115.07 +11.9% | 40.0% | +28.5% | $102.82 | — |