The Spectrum Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Zander
1x $1.32
Motorized
2x $0.34
Slag
2x $0.37
Dezastre
2x $0.61
Light Box
1x $0.76
Dark Sigil
1x $0.85
↓
Possible Outputs
Crimson Tsunami
2.0% $26.43
Etch Lord
18.0% $13.06
Scaffold
2.0% $12.07
Just Smile
18.0% $9.31
Block-18
18.0% $8.90
Seasons
2.0% $8.87
Max Win
$26.43 (+156.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.00 (-12.8%)
Win %
22.0%
Volatility
+36.4%
Cost
$10.32
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $10.32
Ask Price EV $9.00 (-12.8%)
Bid Price EV $7.97 (-22.8%)
Ask Profit $-1.32 (-12.8%)
Bid Profit $-2.35 (-22.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.03 (+10.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.32
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.35
Risk
Win Probability 22.0%
Loss Probability 78.0%
Best Case $26.43 (+156.1%)
Worst Case $4.03 (-61.0%)
Volatility +36.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 22.0%
Avg Win +$3.86
Avg Loss -$2.78
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.03 (-61.0%)
Std Dev $3.75
Avg Norm Float 0.0688
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 155h 19m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Zander
—
Minimal Wear
$1.32 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Factory New
$1.56 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Factory New
$2.02 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 04S //TOTAL COST $10.32 //ASK PRICE EV $9.00 //BID PRICE EV $7.97 //ASK PROFIT $-1.32 (-12.8%) //BID PROFIT $-2.35 (-22.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 22.0% //BEST CASE $26.43 //VOLATILITY +36.4% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
2.0%
$26.43
+$16.11
+156.1%
$18.44
+$8.12
+78.7%
$7.99
30.2%
—
WIN
18.0%
$13.06
+$2.74
+26.5%
$12.03
+$1.71
+16.6%
$1.03
7.9%
—
WIN
2.0%
$12.07
+$1.75
+16.9%
$10.78
+$0.46
+4.5%
$1.29
10.7%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$9.31
-$1.01
-9.7%
$7.84
-$2.48
-24.0%
$1.47
15.8%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$8.90
-$1.42
-13.8%
$7.77
-$2.55
-24.7%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$8.87
-$1.45
-14.0%
$7.33
-$2.99
-29.0%
$1.54
17.4%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$7.89
-$2.43
-23.6%
$7.43
-$2.89
-28.0%
$0.46
5.8%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$7.67
-$2.65
-25.6%
$6.60
-$3.72
-36.0%
$1.07
14.0%
—
LOSS
2.0%
$6.37
-$3.95
-38.3%
$5.99
-$4.33
-42.0%
$0.38
6.0%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$4.03
-$6.29
-61.0%
$3.76
-$6.56
-63.6%
$0.27
6.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-16|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-16"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06882,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:28:57.736585Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.04623843750000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06882,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06882,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.314,
"optimistic_value": 9.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:28:58.626471Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.0425899452,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.028,
"optimistic_value": 4,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:11.593982Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.03785100000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1f899f97bd99",
"realistic_value": 26.4345,
"optimistic_value": 24.52,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami",
"conservative_value": 18.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-16",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Spectrum Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:02.877401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1f899f97bd99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.030969000000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-61f4c5cf38a6",
"realistic_value": 6.3715,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Emerald Poison Dart",
"conservative_value": 5.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-16",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Spectrum Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:30.302668Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-61f4c5cf38a6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0357864,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d3caeffc5ec8",
"realistic_value": 7.673500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 7.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Last Dive",
"conservative_value": 6.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-16",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Spectrum Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Last Dive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T15:03:44.762352Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d3caeffc5ec8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06882,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b0c874f3f971",
"realistic_value": 12.067,
"optimistic_value": 11.85,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Scaffold",
"conservative_value": 10.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-16",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Spectrum Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Scaffold (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:50:22.022192Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b0c874f3f971.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.03441,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc2d596ca9ca",
"realistic_value": 8.8715,
"optimistic_value": 8.28,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Seasons",
"conservative_value": 7.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-16",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Spectrum Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:34:04.584905Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc2d596ca9ca.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_fe5bd4322be890e63167f9fd",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.32,
"skin_id": "skin-68e37aff8fd3",
"listing_id": "510738192172742218",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-16",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Zander (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Zander",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-68e37aff8fd3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:27.382969Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "527627540538064388",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:07.728597Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:07.728597Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "515242641502660669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:43.994743Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:24.397487Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "622201718386433724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:58.222526Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:56.828235Z"
},
{
"price": 1.56,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "527627322002854856",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:26.955101Z"
},
{
"price": 2.02,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "503983537175624575",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:18.885152Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "509613142168459839",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:29.485085Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-16:1+collection-set-community-33:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Spectrum Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Crimson Tsunami 2.0% $10.17 Scaffold 2.0% $7.71 Emerald Poison Dart 2.0% $6.37 Seasons 2.0% $5.20 Last Dive 2.0% $4.81 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.46 | $10.17 +232.4% | $3.67 +19.8% | 64.0% | +40.1% | $3.06 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Spectrum Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Crimson Tsunami 6.0% $26.43 Seasons 6.0% $8.87 Scaffold 6.0% $7.71 Last Dive 6.0% $7.67 Emerald Poison Dart 6.0% $6.37 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.43 | $26.43 +468.5% | $5.73 +23.3% | 30.0% | +111.8% | $4.65 | — |
The Spectrum Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Crimson Tsunami 8.0% $26.43 Seasons 8.0% $8.87 Scaffold 8.0% $7.71 Last Dive 8.0% $7.67 Emerald Poison Dart 8.0% $6.37 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 | $26.43 +389.5% | $6.55 +21.3% | 40.0% | +106.1% | $5.40 | — |
The Spectrum Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Crimson Tsunami 4.0% $26.43 Seasons 4.0% $8.87 Scaffold 4.0% $7.71 Last Dive 4.0% $7.67 Emerald Poison Dart 4.0% $6.37 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.43 | $26.43 +551.1% | $4.92 +21.2% | 52.0% | +109.8% | $4.06 | — |
The Spectrum Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Crimson Tsunami 10.0% $26.43 Seasons 10.0% $8.87 Scaffold 10.0% $7.71 Last Dive 10.0% $7.67 Emerald Poison Dart 10.0% $6.37 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.43 | $26.43 +330.5% | $7.36 +19.8% | 50.0% | +99.9% | $6.14 | — |
The Spectrum Collection ×6+The Kilowatt Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Crimson Tsunami 12.0% $26.43 Seasons 12.0% $8.87 Scaffold 12.0% $7.71 Last Dive 12.0% $7.67 Emerald Poison Dart 12.0% $6.37 Etch Lord 8.0% $4.46 | $26.43 +267.1% | $8.17 +13.5% | 48.0% | +89.6% | $7.20 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Spectrum Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Decimator  3.3% $43.43 Fever Dream  3.3% $34.78 Xiangliu  3.3% $29.45 Black Lotus  30.0% $23.51 Jawbreaker  30.0% $14.90 Olympus  30.0% $8.60 | $43.43 +178.2% | $17.69 +13.3% | 40.0% | +55.0% | $15.61 | — |