The Lake Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Mudder
2x $0.08
Safari Mesh
2x $0.20
Cyanospatter
2x $0.27
Basket Halftone
1x $0.12
Grey Ghost
2x $0.13
Steel Work
1x $0.14
↓
Possible Outputs
Night Ops
20.0% $7.22
Arsenic Spill
6.7% $2.21
Rose Hex
6.7% $1.81
Shredded
6.7% $1.80
Teardown
20.0% $1.65
Coral Bloom
6.7% $1.36
Max Win
$7.22 (+264.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.60 (+31.1%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+118.1%
Cost
$1.98
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.98
Ask Price EV $2.60 (+31.1%)
Bid Price EV $2.47 (+24.6%)
Ask Profit $0.62 (+31.1%)
Bid Profit $0.49 (+24.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.13 (+6.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.62
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.49
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $7.22 (+264.5%)
Worst Case $0.94 (-52.5%)
Volatility +118.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$3.99
Avg Loss -$0.61
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.94 (-52.5%)
Std Dev $2.34
Avg Norm Float 0.1163
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 147h 47m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 48M 38S //TOTAL COST $1.98 //ASK PRICE EV $2.60 //BID PRICE EV $2.47 //ASK PROFIT $0.62 (+31.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.49 (+24.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $7.22 //VOLATILITY +118.1% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$7.22
+$5.24
+264.5%
$6.84
+$4.86
+245.5%
$0.38
5.2%
—
SMALL WIN
6.7%
$2.21
+$0.23
+11.5%
$2.09
+$0.11
+5.6%
$0.12
5.3%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$1.81
-$0.17
-8.4%
$1.77
-$0.21
-10.6%
$0.04
2.4%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$1.80
-$0.18
-9.1%
$1.77
-$0.21
-10.6%
$0.03
1.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$1.65
-$0.33
-16.7%
$1.64
-$0.34
-17.2%
$0.01
0.6%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$1.36
-$0.62
-31.5%
$1.15
-$0.83
-41.9%
$0.21
15.2%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$1.05
-$0.93
-46.7%
$0.99
-$0.99
-50.0%
$0.06
6.1%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$1.05
-$0.93
-47.0%
$1.00
-$0.98
-49.5%
$0.05
4.8%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$0.94
-$1.04
-52.5%
$0.82
-$1.16
-58.6%
$0.12
12.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.069756,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 1.65,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:16.989088Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.0093008,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.0545,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:07:46.489105Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.069756,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 7.2175,
"optimistic_value": 7.2,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 6.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:28:52.907267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.05835798586,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.2075,
"optimistic_value": 2.19,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:53:06.506164Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.08753692066,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.05813,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.814,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:53:08.578533Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.069756,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.8,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:28.813306Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.087195,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.05,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:37.284196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.07887438806000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.94,
"optimistic_value": 0.94,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:31.278898Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_fcfc25f5ecea81fc034df6a2",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "512989991912631707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:59:12.287489Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "500605942755441071",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:59:12.287489Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "524249787961907475",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:59:30.570386Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "739281922467942232",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:59:14.896533Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "524249787962331123",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:55:54.476125Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "524249787961446315",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:05:04.702988Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "518620288314188992",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:05:59.617285Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "523123091070954826",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:43.556733Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "509613089305540863",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:43.556733Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "505109437006752140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:39.787008Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-lake:6+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 10.0% $7.22 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.16 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.80 Shredded 11.7% $1.80 Teardown 10.0% $1.65 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 | $7.22 +359.7% | $2.05 +30.4% | 55.0% | +105.8% | $1.57 | — |
The Lake Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 23.3% $7.22 Arsenic Spill 5.0% $2.21 Rose Hex 5.0% $1.81 Shredded 5.0% $1.80 Teardown 23.3% $1.65 Coral Bloom 5.0% $1.36 | $7.22 +234.1% | $2.77 +28.4% | 28.3% | +104.7% | $2.16 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint  30.0% $6.55 Bleeding Edge  30.0% $5.65 Cobalt Quartz  10.0% $0.61 | $15.94 +125.8% | $8.50 +20.5% | 30.0% | +72.8% | $7.06 | — |