The Lake Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Night Ops
1x $0.06
Cyanospatter
1x $0.07
Mudder
3x $0.08
Safari Mesh
1x $0.20
Grey Ghost
3x $0.05
Steel Work
1x $0.07
↓
Possible Outputs
Coral Bloom
6.7% $1.36
Red Tide
6.7% $1.02
Anodized Navy
20.0% $1.02
Arsenic Spill
6.7% $1.01
Blush Pour
6.7% $0.93
Shredded
6.7% $0.82
Max Win
$1.36 (+27.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$0.81 (-23.3%)
Win %
6.7%
Volatility
+24.4%
Cost
$1.06
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.06
Ask Price EV $0.81 (-23.3%)
Bid Price EV $0.74 (-29.9%)
Ask Profit $-0.25 (-23.3%)
Bid Profit $-0.32 (-29.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.07 (+6.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.25
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.32
Risk
Win Probability 6.7%
Loss Probability 93.3%
Best Case $1.36 (+27.9%)
Worst Case $0.46 (-56.3%)
Volatility +24.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 46.7%
Avg Win +$0.30
Avg Loss -$0.29
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.46 (-56.3%)
Std Dev $0.26
Avg Norm Float 0.1919
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 14m
Oldest Output Price 124h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Night Ops
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Field-Tested
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 39M 54S //TOTAL COST $1.06 //ASK PRICE EV $0.81 //BID PRICE EV $0.74 //ASK PROFIT $-0.25 (-23.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.32 (-29.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 6.7% //BEST CASE $1.36 //VOLATILITY +24.4% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
6.7%
$1.36
+$0.30
+27.9%
$1.15
+$0.09
+8.5%
$0.21
15.2%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$1.02
-$0.04
-3.4%
$1.00
-$0.06
-5.7%
$0.02
2.3%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$1.02
-$0.04
-4.0%
$0.99
-$0.07
-6.6%
$0.03
2.7%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$1.01
-$0.06
-5.2%
$0.89
-$0.17
-16.0%
$0.11
11.4%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$0.93
-$0.13
-11.9%
$0.82
-$0.24
-22.6%
$0.11
12.2%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$0.82
-$0.24
-22.6%
$0.74
-$0.32
-30.2%
$0.08
9.8%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$0.77
-$0.29
-27.0%
$0.70
-$0.36
-34.0%
$0.07
9.6%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$0.61
-$0.45
-42.1%
$0.58
-$0.48
-45.3%
$0.03
5.5%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$0.46
-$0.60
-56.3%
$0.38
-$0.68
-64.2%
$0.08
18.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.11516399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 0.4635,
"optimistic_value": 0.46,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:24.113099Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.015355200000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.0175,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:55:09.453374Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.11516399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 0.6134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.61,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:22:35.016965Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.09634639434,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 1.005,
"optimistic_value": 0.97,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:27.049249Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.14451949554,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.09597,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 0.774,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:54.082662Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.11516399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.82,
"optimistic_value": 0.82,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:18.888878Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.143955,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.024,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:49.903305Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.13021804614,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.9335,
"optimistic_value": 0.93,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:49:33.115956Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_fcfc25f5ecea81fc034df6a2",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-1cae9ba1aa38",
"listing_id": "519746022667799828",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Ops",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1cae9ba1aa38.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:41.001710Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "492724590627153825",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:14:28.053516Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "512989991912631707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:55.339682Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "500605942755441071",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:55.339682Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "497228243055130157",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:14.713963Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "491598743580381806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:27.077827Z"
},
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "509613142167808095",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:30.080295Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "517494441497828410",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:30.080295Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "506234592353884932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:30.080295Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "630083017733692770",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:46.577193Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-lake:6+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 20.0% $7.22 Arsenic Spill 6.7% $2.16 Rose Hex 6.7% $1.80 Shredded 6.7% $1.79 Teardown 20.0% $1.65 Coral Bloom 6.7% $1.36 | $7.22 +252.1% | $2.58 +25.9% | 26.7% | +105.4% | $2.05 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 10.0% $7.22 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.16 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.80 Shredded 11.7% $1.79 Teardown 10.0% $1.65 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 | $7.22 +359.7% | $2.05 +30.4% | 55.0% | +105.8% | $1.57 | — |
The Lake Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 23.3% $7.22 Arsenic Spill 5.0% $2.16 Rose Hex 5.0% $1.80 Shredded 5.0% $1.79 Teardown 23.3% $1.65 Coral Bloom 5.0% $1.36 | $7.22 +223.7% | $2.76 +23.8% | 23.3% | +101.6% | $2.23 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint  30.0% $6.55 Bleeding Edge  30.0% $5.65 Cobalt Quartz  10.0% $0.61 | $15.94 +125.8% | $8.50 +20.5% | 30.0% | +72.8% | $7.06 | — |