The Lake Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Mudder
1x $0.31
Cyanospatter
1x $0.41
Safari Mesh
3x $0.47
Night Ops
1x $1.44
Steel Work
1x $0.14
Basket Halftone
1x $0.29
↓
Possible Outputs
Night Ops
20.0% $7.22
Coral Bloom
6.7% $4.96
Red Tide
6.7% $3.32
Blush Pour
6.7% $2.43
Arsenic Spill
6.7% $2.16
Rose Hex
6.7% $1.80
Max Win
$7.22 (+34.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.07 (-42.6%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+42.7%
Cost
$5.36
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.36
Ask Price EV $3.07 (-42.6%)
Bid Price EV $2.96 (-44.8%)
Ask Profit $-2.29 (-42.6%)
Bid Profit $-2.40 (-44.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.12 (+2.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.29
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.40
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $7.22 (+34.7%)
Worst Case $1.02 (-81.0%)
Volatility +42.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 73.3%
Avg Win +$1.86
Avg Loss -$3.32
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.02 (-81.0%)
Std Dev $2.29
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 148h 45m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Minimal Wear
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Ops
—
Factory New
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sedimentary
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 39M 56S //TOTAL COST $5.36 //ASK PRICE EV $3.07 //BID PRICE EV $2.96 //ASK PROFIT $-2.29 (-42.6%) //BID PROFIT $-2.40 (-44.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $7.22 //VOLATILITY +42.7% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
20.0%
$7.22
+$1.86
+34.7%
$6.84
+$1.48
+27.6%
$0.38
5.2%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$4.96
-$0.40
-7.4%
$4.92
-$0.44
-8.2%
$0.04
0.8%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$3.32
-$2.04
-38.1%
$3.30
-$2.06
-38.4%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$2.43
-$2.93
-54.6%
$2.09
-$3.27
-61.0%
$0.34
14.2%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$2.16
-$3.20
-59.6%
$2.09
-$3.27
-61.0%
$0.07
3.4%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$1.80
-$3.56
-66.4%
$1.77
-$3.59
-67.0%
$0.03
1.7%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$1.79
-$3.57
-66.7%
$1.77
-$3.59
-67.0%
$0.02
1.0%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$1.65
-$3.71
-69.2%
$1.64
-$3.72
-69.4%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$1.02
-$4.34
-81.0%
$0.99
-$4.37
-81.5%
$0.03
2.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.04179,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 1.65,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:45:48.237051Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.0055720000000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.0175,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:55:09.453374Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.04179,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 7.2175,
"optimistic_value": 7.2,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 6.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:28:52.907267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.03496158365,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.1645,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:49.841481Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.05244234065,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 4.961,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T15:33:54.664938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.034825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.8,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:17.761081Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.04179,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.787,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:48.840177Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.052237500000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 3.317,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 3.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:43:26.884391Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.047252719150000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 2.4345,
"optimistic_value": 2.41,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:44.518019Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_fcfc25f5ecea81fc034df6a2",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "491598743580381806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:27.077827Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "526501587736690685",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:25.567161Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "524249787961446315",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:52:43.633727Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "511864888984294569",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:52:43.633727Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "644719716497744487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:52:43.633727Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-1cae9ba1aa38",
"listing_id": "506234592341299476",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Ops",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1cae9ba1aa38.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:51:55.819602Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "505109437006752140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:01:15.346730Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "525375740885273911",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:11.422898Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "494976390477373962",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:52:20.517085Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-7efe4d3e7779",
"listing_id": "515242641501277729",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Sedimentary",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7efe4d3e7779.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:53.729789Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-lake:6+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 20.0% $7.22 Arsenic Spill 6.7% $2.16 Rose Hex 6.7% $1.80 Shredded 6.7% $1.79 Teardown 20.0% $1.65 Coral Bloom 6.7% $1.36 | $7.22 +252.1% | $2.58 +25.9% | 26.7% | +105.4% | $2.05 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 10.0% $7.22 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.16 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.80 Shredded 11.7% $1.79 Teardown 10.0% $1.65 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 | $7.22 +359.7% | $2.05 +30.4% | 55.0% | +105.8% | $1.57 | — |
The Lake Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 23.3% $7.22 Arsenic Spill 5.0% $2.16 Rose Hex 5.0% $1.80 Shredded 5.0% $1.79 Teardown 23.3% $1.65 Coral Bloom 5.0% $1.36 | $7.22 +223.7% | $2.76 +23.8% | 23.3% | +101.6% | $2.23 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint  30.0% $6.55 Bleeding Edge  30.0% $5.65 Cobalt Quartz  10.0% $0.61 | $15.94 +125.8% | $8.50 +20.5% | 30.0% | +72.8% | $7.06 | — |