The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Slag
2x $0.11
Irezumi
1x $0.13
Motorized
1x $0.14
Light Box
2x $0.14
Aeolian Light
1x $0.27
Creep
3x $0.28
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
20.0% $5.85
Trace Lock
20.0% $2.29
Block-18
12.0% $0.77
Etch Lord
12.0% $0.73
Hybrid
12.0% $0.71
Just Smile
12.0% $0.66
Max Win
$5.85 (+197.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.05 (+3.9%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+101.5%
Cost
$1.97
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $1.97
Ask Price EV $2.05 (+3.9%)
Bid Price EV $1.78 (-9.5%)
Ask Profit $0.08 (+3.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.19 (-9.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.26 (+13.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.08
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.19
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+197.0%)
Worst Case $0.62 (-68.4%)
Volatility +101.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$2.10
Avg Loss -$1.27
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.62 (-68.4%)
Std Dev $2.00
Avg Norm Float 0.3801
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 28m
Oldest Output Price 152h 11m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 11M 30S //TOTAL COST $1.97 //ASK PRICE EV $2.05 //BID PRICE EV $1.78 //ASK PROFIT $0.08 (+3.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.19 (-9.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +101.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$5.85
+$3.88
+197.0%
$4.91
+$2.94
+149.2%
$0.94
16.1%
—
WIN
20.0%
$2.29
+$0.32
+16.1%
$2.18
+$0.21
+10.7%
$0.11
4.7%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.77
-$1.20
-60.9%
$0.71
-$1.26
-64.0%
$0.06
7.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$0.73
-$1.24
-62.9%
$0.58
-$1.39
-70.6%
$0.15
20.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$0.71
-$1.26
-64.0%
$0.57
-$1.40
-71.1%
$0.14
19.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$0.66
-$1.31
-66.5%
$0.57
-$1.40
-71.1%
$0.09
13.6%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.62
-$1.35
-68.4%
$0.61
-$1.36
-69.0%
$0.01
2.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.2850975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.266091,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.2880000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.19,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:36.738814Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.38013,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:17:11.263775Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.25539984375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 0.771,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T22:11:50.072397Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.38013,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.73,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:02:07.825109Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.38013,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.66,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:34:42.881886Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.2352472518,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 0.6234999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.62,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:53:36.749171Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_fbcdc3961d19d4ee7ec200b4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "500605942756033235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:45:24.728396Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "506235442368057084",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:45:24.728396Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "512990789045330051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:24.112947Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "524249735518436271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:53:22.246067Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "490472738292849795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:24.543875Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514115891842488654",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:24.543875Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "529879287550318068",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:57:54.017539Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "511864888986026637",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:52.084860Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "508487242222263242",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:52.084860Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "508487136896542430",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:52.084860Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:6+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.71 Block-18 12.0% $1.41 Analog Input 12.0% $0.99 Just Smile 12.0% $0.75 Hybrid 12.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +300.2% | $3.94 +28.7% | 40.0% | +139.4% | $3.06 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 20.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 20.0% $14.39 Block-18 12.0% $4.18 Analog Input 12.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 12.0% $1.66 Just Smile 12.0% $1.61 | $26.93 +209.5% | $9.70 +11.5% | 40.0% | +108.1% | $8.70 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.93 Block-18 6.0% $1.40 Analog Input 6.0% $1.02 Hybrid 6.0% $0.72 Just Smile 6.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +154.0% | $6.29 +30.4% | 70.0% | +92.5% | $4.82 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.93 Block-18 8.0% $1.35 Analog Input 8.0% $1.02 Hybrid 8.0% $0.72 Just Smile 8.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +187.4% | $5.51 +29.5% | 60.0% | +106.0% | $4.26 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.71 Block-18 4.0% $1.41 Analog Input 4.0% $0.99 Just Smile 4.0% $0.75 Hybrid 4.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +123.4% | $6.96 +27.1% | 40.0% | +79.4% | $5.48 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.57 Block-18 10.0% $1.35 Analog Input 10.0% $1.02 Hybrid 10.0% $0.72 Just Smile 10.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +230.9% | $4.66 +25.8% | 50.0% | +120.6% | $3.70 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.93 Block-18 14.0% $1.40 Analog Input 14.0% $1.02 Hybrid 14.0% $0.72 Just Smile 14.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +372.8% | $3.22 +24.1% | 30.0% | +152.3% | $2.59 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.71 Block-18 2.0% $1.40 Analog Input 2.0% $1.02 Just Smile 2.0% $0.75 Hybrid 2.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +90.4% | $7.72 +20.1% | 45.0% | +64.0% | $6.43 | — |