The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Slag
2x $0.12
Irezumi
1x $0.13
Light Box
2x $0.14
Motorized
1x $0.26
The Daily Deagle
3x $0.36
Grip Tape
1x $0.72
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
20.0% $12.25
Trace Lock
20.0% $5.01
Block-18
12.0% $1.36
Analog Input
12.0% $1.06
Etch Lord
12.0% $0.80
Hybrid
12.0% $0.76
Max Win
$12.25 (+310.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.02 (+34.7%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+148.0%
Cost
$2.98
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.98
Ask Price EV $4.02 (+34.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.64 (+22.3%)
Ask Profit $1.04 (+34.7%)
Bid Profit $0.66 (+22.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.37 (+12.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.04
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.66
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $12.25 (+310.9%)
Worst Case $0.71 (-76.0%)
Volatility +148.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$5.65
Avg Loss -$2.04
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.71 (-76.0%)
Std Dev $4.41
Avg Norm Float 0.1985
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 151h 17m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 32S //TOTAL COST $2.98 //ASK PRICE EV $4.02 //BID PRICE EV $3.64 //ASK PROFIT $1.04 (+34.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.66 (+22.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +148.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$12.25
+$9.27
+310.9%
$11.36
+$8.38
+281.2%
$0.89
7.2%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$5.01
+$2.03
+68.2%
$4.25
+$1.27
+42.6%
$0.76
15.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.36
-$1.62
-54.4%
$1.30
-$1.68
-56.4%
$0.06
4.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.06
-$1.92
-64.3%
$0.98
-$2.00
-67.1%
$0.08
7.9%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.80
-$2.18
-73.2%
$0.69
-$2.29
-76.8%
$0.11
13.8%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.76
-$2.22
-74.5%
$0.69
-$2.29
-76.8%
$0.07
9.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$0.71
-$2.27
-76.0%
$0.69
-$2.29
-76.8%
$0.02
3.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.148905,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.138978,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 5.0135,
"optimistic_value": 5.01,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:01.722586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.19854,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.76,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:05:49.025296Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.1333940625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 1.3575,
"optimistic_value": 1.34,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:38.592982Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.19854,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.8,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:11:34.992907Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.19854,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.714,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:17:58.497427Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.12286846439999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.0635000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.06,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:09:13.216933Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_fbcdc3961d19d4ee7ec200b4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "636838417147903708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:58:21.155696Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "512990789045330051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:24.886772Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "490472738292849795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:17:05.179381Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514115891842488654",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:17:05.179381Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "496102343225981495",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:58:22.461695Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "490472843633144703",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:48.651564Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "520872141037641288",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:03:04.297458Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235442367610108",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:03:04.297458Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "517494441497486806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:03:04.297458Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "509613142168114455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:02:41.800276Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:6+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 20.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 20.0% $14.30 Block-18 12.0% $4.18 Analog Input 12.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 12.0% $1.66 Just Smile 12.0% $1.61 | $26.93 +210.2% | $9.68 +11.5% | 40.0% | +108.3% | $8.68 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 20.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 20.0% $2.32 Block-18 12.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 12.0% $0.73 Hybrid 12.0% $0.71 Just Smile 12.0% $0.66 | $5.85 +216.2% | $2.05 +11.0% | 40.0% | +104.7% | $1.85 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $5.01 Block-18 8.0% $1.36 Analog Input 8.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.79 Hybrid 8.0% $0.76 | $12.25 +196.5% | $5.55 +34.5% | 60.0% | +108.8% | $4.13 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $5.01 Block-18 6.0% $1.36 Analog Input 6.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.79 Hybrid 6.0% $0.76 | $12.25 +149.4% | $6.32 +28.7% | 70.0% | +90.4% | $4.91 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.57 Block-18 4.0% $1.35 Analog Input 4.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 4.0% $0.80 Hybrid 4.0% $0.76 | $12.25 +124.7% | $6.91 +26.9% | 40.0% | +80.4% | $5.45 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $5.01 Block-18 14.0% $1.36 Analog Input 14.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 14.0% $0.79 Hybrid 14.0% $0.76 | $12.25 +378.3% | $3.24 +26.7% | 30.0% | +153.8% | $2.56 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.57 Block-18 10.0% $1.35 Analog Input 10.0% $1.02 Hybrid 10.0% $0.72 Just Smile 10.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +230.9% | $4.66 +25.8% | 50.0% | +120.6% | $3.70 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $5.01 Block-18 2.0% $1.36 Analog Input 2.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 2.0% $0.80 Hybrid 2.0% $0.76 | $12.25 +82.8% | $7.86 +17.3% | 45.0% | +59.8% | $6.70 | — |