The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Irezumi
1x $0.31
Dezastre
1x $0.34
Light Box
3x $0.46
Dark Sigil
1x $0.84
Aeolian Light
2x $0.76
Creep
1x $1.75
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
20.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
20.0% $14.39
Block-18
12.0% $4.18
Analog Input
12.0% $2.99
Etch Lord
12.0% $1.66
Just Smile
12.0% $1.61
Max Win
$26.93 (+209.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.70 (+11.5%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+112.9%
Cost
$8.70
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $8.70
Ask Price EV $9.70 (+11.5%)
Bid Price EV $9.37 (+7.7%)
Ask Profit $1.00 (+11.5%)
Bid Profit $0.67 (+7.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.33 (+3.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.00
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.67
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+209.5%)
Worst Case $1.53 (-82.4%)
Volatility +112.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$11.96
Avg Loss -$6.31
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.53 (-82.4%)
Std Dev $9.82
Avg Norm Float 0.0933
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 13h 31m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.84 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 11M 31S //TOTAL COST $8.70 //ASK PRICE EV $9.70 //BID PRICE EV $9.37 //ASK PROFIT $1.00 (+11.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.67 (+7.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +112.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$26.93
+$18.23
+209.5%
$26.63
+$17.93
+206.1%
$0.30
1.1%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$14.39
+$5.69
+65.3%
$13.16
+$4.46
+51.3%
$1.22
8.5%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$4.18
-$4.52
-52.0%
$4.17
-$4.53
-52.1%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.99
-$5.71
-65.6%
$2.96
-$5.74
-66.0%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.66
-$7.04
-80.9%
$1.54
-$7.16
-82.3%
$0.12
7.2%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.61
-$7.09
-81.5%
$1.58
-$7.12
-81.8%
$0.03
1.9%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.53
-$7.17
-82.4%
$1.52
-$7.18
-82.5%
$0.01
0.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.069945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.06528199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.385,
"optimistic_value": 14.35,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:14.291603Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.09326,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 1.53,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:48:00.390546Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0626590625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.18,
"optimistic_value": 4.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 4.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:55:48.015487Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.09326,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 1.66,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:53:20.405061Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.09326,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 1.61,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 1.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:17:29.166630Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.057714883599999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.99,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 2.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:05:26.301033Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_fbcdc3961d19d4ee7ec200b4",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "525375688036201111",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:53:10.364133Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "521998040962973094",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:49.914023Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "527626690809322808",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:59:02.853164Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "510738989040367846",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:59:02.853164Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "494976224708092746",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:59:02.853164Z"
},
{
"price": 0.84,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "509613089305575423",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:34.153971Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "499480042828382509",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:08.859818Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313427412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:08.859818Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "503983642532704231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:35.789474Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "526501640651063345",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:18.375810Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:6+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.71 Block-18 12.0% $1.41 Analog Input 12.0% $0.99 Just Smile 12.0% $0.75 Hybrid 12.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +300.2% | $3.94 +28.7% | 40.0% | +139.4% | $3.06 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 20.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 20.0% $2.29 Block-18 12.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 12.0% $0.73 Hybrid 12.0% $0.71 Just Smile 12.0% $0.66 | $5.85 +197.0% | $2.05 +3.9% | 40.0% | +98.3% | $1.97 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.93 Block-18 6.0% $1.40 Analog Input 6.0% $1.02 Hybrid 6.0% $0.72 Just Smile 6.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +154.0% | $6.29 +30.4% | 70.0% | +92.5% | $4.82 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.93 Block-18 8.0% $1.35 Analog Input 8.0% $1.02 Hybrid 8.0% $0.72 Just Smile 8.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +187.4% | $5.51 +29.5% | 60.0% | +106.0% | $4.26 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.71 Block-18 4.0% $1.41 Analog Input 4.0% $0.99 Just Smile 4.0% $0.75 Hybrid 4.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +123.4% | $6.96 +27.1% | 40.0% | +79.4% | $5.48 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.57 Block-18 10.0% $1.35 Analog Input 10.0% $1.02 Hybrid 10.0% $0.72 Just Smile 10.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +230.9% | $4.66 +25.8% | 50.0% | +120.6% | $3.70 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.93 Block-18 14.0% $1.40 Analog Input 14.0% $1.02 Hybrid 14.0% $0.72 Just Smile 14.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +372.8% | $3.22 +24.1% | 30.0% | +152.3% | $2.59 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.71 Block-18 2.0% $1.40 Analog Input 2.0% $1.02 Just Smile 2.0% $0.75 Hybrid 2.0% $0.72 | $12.25 +90.4% | $7.72 +20.1% | 45.0% | +64.0% | $6.43 | — |