The Achroma Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Snow Splash
2x $0.10
Dark Chamber
1x $0.10
Aeolian Dark
2x $0.12
Vendetta
1x $0.28
Gum Wall Camo
1x $0.14
Robin's Egg
1x $0.15
↓
Possible Outputs
Mint Fan
8.0% $3.12
Cobalt Paisley
8.0% $2.65
Royal Baroque
8.0% $2.64
The Daily Deagle
15.0% $2.21
Reef Grief
8.0% $2.05
Aeolian Light
15.0% $1.91
Max Win
$3.12 (+90.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.85 (+12.7%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+46.1%
Cost
$1.64
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.64
Ask Price EV $1.85 (+12.7%)
Bid Price EV $1.80 (+9.5%)
Ask Profit $0.21 (+12.7%)
Bid Profit $0.16 (+9.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.05 (+3.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.21
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.16
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $3.12 (+90.3%)
Worst Case $0.75 (-54.4%)
Volatility +46.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$0.65
Avg Loss -$0.82
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.75 (-54.4%)
Std Dev $0.76
Avg Norm Float 0.1077
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 21m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Vendetta
—
Factory New
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 59M 05S //TOTAL COST $1.64 //ASK PRICE EV $1.85 //BID PRICE EV $1.80 //ASK PROFIT $0.21 (+12.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.16 (+9.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $3.12 //VOLATILITY +46.1% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
8.0%
$3.12
+$1.48
+90.3%
$3.05
+$1.41
+86.0%
$0.07
2.3%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$2.65
+$1.01
+61.6%
$2.64
+$1.00
+61.0%
$0.01
0.4%
—
BIG WIN
8.0%
$2.64
+$1.00
+61.2%
$2.62
+$0.98
+59.8%
$0.02
0.9%
—
WIN
15.0%
$2.21
+$0.57
+34.6%
$2.19
+$0.55
+33.5%
$0.02
0.8%
—
WIN
8.0%
$2.05
+$0.41
+25.2%
$2.00
+$0.36
+22.0%
$0.05
2.6%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
15.0%
$1.91
+$0.27
+16.5%
$1.86
+$0.22
+13.4%
$0.05
2.6%
—
PAPER WIN
8.0%
$1.83
+$0.19
+11.9%
$1.61
-$0.03
-1.8%
$0.22
12.2%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$0.90
-$0.74
-45.1%
$0.85
-$0.79
-48.2%
$0.05
5.7%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$0.75
-$0.89
-54.4%
$0.71
-$0.93
-56.7%
$0.04
5.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.086144,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 0.901,
"optimistic_value": 0.88,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 0.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:33.525785Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.06245439999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.2070000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.2,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:29:01.492072Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.08076,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 0.7475,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:42.456128Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.069992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 1.91,
"optimistic_value": 1.91,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:42.449510Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.064608,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.1205,
"optimistic_value": 3.11,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:02.019867Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.075376,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.8345,
"optimistic_value": 1.81,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:21.722838Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.069992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:43.060913Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.064608,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:47.241816Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.064608,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.054,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:45.233264Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f980366d112787f7984fae5d",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "525375740885565439",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:30.016623Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "493850543431724080",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:32:04.187600Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "490472843633372619",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:35.613129Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "517493591332850710",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:35.613129Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "515242641502301857",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:35:37.104812Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"listing_id": "519746241189431204",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:39:44.280425Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "505109542380388916",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:26:38.292801Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "525375635593436155",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:27:38.467650Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "498354142900313815",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:26:43.856765Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "490472790737224023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:30:06.436420Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.83 Cobalt Paisley 8.0% $1.19 Reef Grief 8.0% $1.09 Royal Baroque 8.0% $1.05 Mint Fan 8.0% $0.99 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $0.97 | $1.83 +108.5% | $0.99 +12.9% | 70.0% | +28.0% | $0.88 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.83 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.19 Royal Baroque 12.0% $1.05 Reef Grief 12.0% $1.04 Mint Fan 12.0% $0.99 The Daily Deagle 10.0% $0.97 | $1.83 +129.3% | $0.98 +22.4% | 70.0% | +38.4% | $0.80 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.78 Cobalt Paisley 10.0% $1.16 Reef Grief 10.0% $1.04 Royal Baroque 10.0% $1.04 Mint Fan 10.0% $0.99 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $0.97 | $1.78 +128.7% | $0.91 +16.5% | 62.5% | +38.0% | $0.78 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 6.0% $1.78 Cobalt Paisley 6.0% $1.16 Reef Grief 6.0% $1.04 Royal Baroque 6.0% $1.04 Mint Fan 6.0% $0.99 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $0.91 | $1.78 +107.4% | $0.93 +8.3% | 65.0% | +25.6% | $0.86 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate  10.0% $18.08 Breakthrough  40.0% $12.05 Royal Guard  10.0% $5.56 Trace Lock  40.0% $4.94 | $18.08 +157.9% | $9.16 +30.7% | 50.0% | +63.3% | $7.01 | — |