The Achroma Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Aeolian Dark
3x $0.12
Snow Splash
1x $0.26
Vendetta
1x $0.28
Dark Chamber
1x $1.19
Sour Grapes
1x $0.32
Gum Wall Camo
2x $0.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Yeti Camo
8.0% $4.46
Mint Fan
8.0% $3.12
Cobalt Paisley
8.0% $2.65
Royal Baroque
8.0% $2.64
Creep
15.0% $2.38
The Daily Deagle
15.0% $2.21
Max Win
$4.46 (-16.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.49 (-53.7%)
Win %
0.0%
Volatility
+12.4%
Cost
$5.37
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.37
Ask Price EV $2.49 (-53.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.45 (-54.3%)
Ask Profit $-2.88 (-53.7%)
Bid Profit $-2.92 (-54.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+0.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.88
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.92
Risk
Win Probability 0.00%
Loss Probability 100.0%
Best Case $4.46 (-16.9%)
Worst Case $1.91 (-64.4%)
Volatility +12.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 92.0%
Avg Win —
Avg Loss -$2.88
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.91 (-64.4%)
Std Dev $0.67
Avg Norm Float 0.0696
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 10h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Vendetta
—
Factory New
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Factory New
$1.41 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 58M 28S //TOTAL COST $5.37 //ASK PRICE EV $2.49 //BID PRICE EV $2.45 //ASK PROFIT $-2.88 (-53.7%) //BID PROFIT $-2.92 (-54.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $4.46 //VOLATILITY +12.4% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
LOSS
8.0%
$4.46
-$0.91
-16.9%
$4.43
-$0.94
-17.5%
$0.03
0.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.12
-$2.25
-41.9%
$3.05
-$2.32
-43.2%
$0.07
2.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.65
-$2.72
-50.7%
$2.64
-$2.73
-50.8%
$0.01
0.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.64
-$2.73
-50.8%
$2.62
-$2.75
-51.2%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.38
-$2.99
-55.6%
$2.34
-$3.03
-56.4%
$0.04
1.8%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.21
-$3.16
-58.9%
$2.19
-$3.18
-59.2%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.13
-$3.24
-60.4%
$2.10
-$3.27
-60.9%
$0.03
1.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.05
-$3.32
-61.8%
$2.00
-$3.37
-62.8%
$0.05
2.6%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$1.91
-$3.46
-64.4%
$1.86
-$3.51
-65.4%
$0.05
2.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.055712,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 2.3835,
"optimistic_value": 2.38,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 2.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:29.175647Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.040391199999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.2070000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.2,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:29:01.492072Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.05223,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 2.1270000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 2.12,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 2.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:37.410883Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.045266,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 1.91,
"optimistic_value": 1.91,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:42.449510Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.041783999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.1205,
"optimistic_value": 3.11,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:02.019867Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.04874799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.045266,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:43.060913Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.041783999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:47.241816Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.041783999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.054,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:45.233264Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f980366d112787f7984fae5d",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "490472843633372619",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:35.613129Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "517493591332850710",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:35.613129Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "515242641502301857",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:35:37.104812Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"listing_id": "519746241189431204",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:39:44.280425Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "511864941882072957",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Factory New)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:25:58.335279Z"
},
{
"price": 1.41,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "527627487624374612",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:34:17.132837Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "524249787961282407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:57.580213Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "497228243055872657",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:37.795946Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "508487136897429290",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:11.939049Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "525375522202630771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:37.795946Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.83 Cobalt Paisley 8.0% $1.19 Reef Grief 8.0% $1.09 Royal Baroque 8.0% $1.05 Mint Fan 8.0% $0.99 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $0.97 | $1.83 +108.5% | $0.99 +12.9% | 70.0% | +28.0% | $0.88 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 8.0% $3.12 Cobalt Paisley 8.0% $2.65 Royal Baroque 8.0% $2.64 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $2.21 Reef Grief 8.0% $2.05 Aeolian Light 15.0% $1.91 | $3.12 +90.3% | $1.85 +12.7% | 70.0% | +30.7% | $1.64 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.83 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.19 Royal Baroque 12.0% $1.05 Reef Grief 12.0% $1.04 Mint Fan 12.0% $0.99 The Daily Deagle 10.0% $0.97 | $1.83 +129.3% | $0.98 +22.4% | 70.0% | +38.4% | $0.80 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.78 Cobalt Paisley 10.0% $1.16 Reef Grief 10.0% $1.04 Royal Baroque 10.0% $1.04 Mint Fan 10.0% $0.99 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $0.97 | $1.78 +128.7% | $0.91 +16.5% | 62.5% | +38.0% | $0.78 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 6.0% $1.78 Cobalt Paisley 6.0% $1.16 Reef Grief 6.0% $1.04 Royal Baroque 6.0% $1.04 Mint Fan 6.0% $0.99 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $0.91 | $1.78 +107.4% | $0.93 +8.3% | 65.0% | +25.6% | $0.86 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate  10.0% $18.08 Breakthrough  40.0% $12.05 Royal Guard  10.0% $5.56 Trace Lock  40.0% $4.94 | $18.08 +157.9% | $9.16 +30.7% | 50.0% | +63.3% | $7.01 | — |