The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Fragment
5x $0.20
Bock Blocks
2x $0.24
Zubastick
1x $0.55
Aeolian Light
1x $0.70
Grip Tape
1x $0.80
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
10.0% $12.05
Electrum
16.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
16.0% $5.02
Trace Lock
10.0% $4.94
Galigator
16.0% $3.33
Amberline
16.0% $3.17
Max Win
$12.05 (+144.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.16 (+4.7%)
Win %
52.0%
Volatility
+54.2%
Cost
$4.93
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $4.93
Ask Price EV $5.16 (+4.7%)
Bid Price EV $4.56 (-7.6%)
Ask Profit $0.23 (+4.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.37 (-7.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.60 (+12.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.23
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.37
Risk
Win Probability 52.0%
Loss Probability 48.0%
Best Case $12.05 (+144.4%)
Worst Case $3.12 (-36.7%)
Volatility +54.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$2.03
Avg Loss -$1.72
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.12 (-36.7%)
Std Dev $2.67
Avg Norm Float 0.1477
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 154h 28m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 02S //TOTAL COST $4.93 //ASK PRICE EV $5.16 //BID PRICE EV $4.56 //ASK PROFIT $0.23 (+4.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.37 (-7.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 52.0% //BEST CASE $12.05 //VOLATILITY +54.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$12.05
+$7.12
+144.4%
$10.32
+$5.39
+109.3%
$1.73
14.3%
—
WIN
16.0%
$7.00
+$2.07
+41.9%
$5.93
+$1.00
+20.3%
$1.07
15.2%
—
PAPER WIN
16.0%
$5.02
+$0.09
+1.8%
$3.97
-$0.96
-19.5%
$1.05
20.9%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$4.94
+$0.01
+0.2%
$4.28
-$0.65
-13.2%
$0.66
13.3%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$3.33
-$1.60
-32.4%
$3.23
-$1.70
-34.5%
$0.10
3.0%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$3.17
-$1.76
-35.8%
$3.13
-$1.80
-36.5%
$0.04
1.2%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$3.12
-$1.81
-36.7%
$3.10
-$1.83
-37.1%
$0.02
0.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14765,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14765,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.331,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 3.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:00.892618Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14765,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 6.997,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14765,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.1670000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 3.16,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 3.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:46.138918Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14765,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.12,
"optimistic_value": 3.12,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 3.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:31:10.518537Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1107375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.049,
"optimistic_value": 11.93,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 10.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:28.312731Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.103355,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.9385,
"optimistic_value": 4.9,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:32.311458Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f88b6d476d69df8c5f8f0fa0",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "494976443342935662",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:39:29.099540Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "508487242223016110",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:33.992864Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "515242588554681613",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:33.992864Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "490472843633195751",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:30:52.199979Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "526501640651263541",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:30:52.199979Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "505109542380764864",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:30:52.199979Z"
},
{
"price": 0.55,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287552057336",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:29:07.311177Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "491598743580519002",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:30:52.199979Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "496102343226808487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:46.403366Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "524249840859550539",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:42.969777Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:8+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Breakthrough 10.0% $27.06 Electrum 16.0% $19.50 Trace Lock 10.0% $13.73 Firebreathing 16.0% $12.97 Galigator 16.0% $11.06 Amberline 16.0% $10.23 | $27.06 +105.1% | $14.28 +8.3% | 36.0% | +38.1% | $13.19 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.94 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +136.3% | $6.70 +31.3% | 35.0% | +76.2% | $5.10 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.94 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +115.5% | $7.30 +30.5% | 40.0% | +68.7% | $5.59 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.94 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +156.4% | $6.10 +29.8% | 60.0% | +82.3% | $4.70 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.94 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +183.5% | $5.50 +29.4% | 50.0% | +88.8% | $4.25 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.94 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 2.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +97.5% | $7.90 +29.4% | 45.0% | +61.1% | $6.10 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.94 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.76 | $12.05 +208.9% | $4.90 +25.7% | 52.0% | +92.1% | $3.90 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $5.61 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Trace Lock 15.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.76 | $5.61 +127.3% | $2.93 +18.5% | 43.0% | +51.7% | $2.47 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Achroma Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Breakthrough 5.0% $27.06 Electrum 18.0% $19.50 Trace Lock 5.0% $13.73 Firebreathing 18.0% $12.97 Galigator 18.0% $11.06 Amberline 18.0% $10.23 | $27.06 +119.6% | $13.52 +9.7% | 46.0% | +35.1% | $12.32 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  20.0% $35.39 The End  40.0% $27.17 Deathgaze  20.0% $9.36 Kintsugi  20.0% $9.23 | $35.39 +98.9% | $21.66 +21.8% | 60.0% | +59.2% | $17.79 | — |