The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Zubastick
3x $0.16
Dark Polymer
2x $0.21
Bock Blocks
2x $0.23
Fragment
1x $0.37
Creep
2x $0.26
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
10.0% $5.61
Electrum
16.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
16.0% $2.79
Trace Lock
10.0% $2.33
Galigator
16.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
16.0% $1.77
Max Win
$5.61 (+125.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.81 (+12.8%)
Win %
42.0%
Volatility
+49.2%
Cost
$2.49
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.49
Ask Price EV $2.81 (+12.8%)
Bid Price EV $2.47 (-0.8%)
Ask Profit $0.32 (+12.8%)
Bid Profit $-0.02 (-0.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.34 (+13.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.32
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.02
Risk
Win Probability 42.0%
Loss Probability 58.0%
Best Case $5.61 (+125.4%)
Worst Case $1.73 (-30.3%)
Volatility +49.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 32.0%
Avg Win +$1.47
Avg Loss -$0.52
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.73 (-30.3%)
Std Dev $1.22
Avg Norm Float 0.3649
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 155h 32m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 15S //TOTAL COST $2.49 //ASK PRICE EV $2.81 //BID PRICE EV $2.47 //ASK PROFIT $0.32 (+12.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.02 (-0.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 42.0% //BEST CASE $5.61 //VOLATILITY +49.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$5.61
+$3.12
+125.4%
$5.00
+$2.51
+100.8%
$0.61
10.9%
—
BIG WIN
16.0%
$4.11
+$1.62
+65.1%
$3.61
+$1.12
+45.0%
$0.50
12.2%
—
PAPER WIN
16.0%
$2.79
+$0.30
+11.9%
$2.32
-$0.17
-6.8%
$0.47
16.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.33
-$0.16
-6.5%
$2.14
-$0.35
-14.1%
$0.19
8.0%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$2.19
-$0.30
-12.2%
$1.74
-$0.75
-30.1%
$0.45
20.4%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$1.77
-$0.72
-28.8%
$1.65
-$0.84
-33.7%
$0.12
6.9%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$1.73
-$0.76
-30.3%
$1.65
-$0.84
-33.7%
$0.08
4.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.36486,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.36486,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.36486,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.36486,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.7349999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.7,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:47.950712Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.36486,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.772,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:17.565951Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.273645,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.6135,
"optimistic_value": 5.54,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:38.278338Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.255402,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.327,
"optimistic_value": 2.25,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:46.621026Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f88b6d476d69df8c5f8f0fa0",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "509613142169155575",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:29.507984Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "502857742727772244",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:29.507984Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "493850490549435088",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:29.507984Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "496102343227106891",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:10.451872Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "510739041955442182",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:36.988810Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "490472843634219195",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:10.451872Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "509612292228451071",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:10.132339Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "515242588554681613",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:36.988810Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "515242641502780333",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:49.342464Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "511864888986026637",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:49.342464Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:8+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Breakthrough 10.0% $27.06 Electrum 16.0% $19.50 Trace Lock 10.0% $13.99 Firebreathing 16.0% $12.97 Galigator 16.0% $11.06 Amberline 16.0% $10.23 | $27.06 +110.6% | $14.31 +11.3% | 52.0% | +39.1% | $12.85 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.05 Electrum 16.0% $7.00 Trace Lock 10.0% $5.03 Firebreathing 16.0% $5.02 Galigator 16.0% $3.34 Amberline 16.0% $3.17 | $12.05 +159.1% | $5.17 +11.2% | 52.0% | +54.6% | $4.65 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 35.0% $5.01 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Amberline 6.0% $1.78 | $12.05 +124.0% | $6.73 +25.1% | 35.0% | +72.0% | $5.38 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 30.0% $5.01 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.85 | $12.05 +144.4% | $6.13 +24.4% | 60.0% | +78.1% | $4.93 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $5.61 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.24 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.85 | $5.61 +115.1% | $3.24 +24.0% | 45.0% | +55.0% | $2.61 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 40.0% $5.01 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 Amberline 4.0% $1.78 | $12.05 +102.8% | $7.33 +23.4% | 40.0% | +64.3% | $5.94 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $5.61 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Trace Lock 20.0% $2.24 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.85 | $5.61 +123.6% | $3.10 +23.4% | 44.0% | +53.9% | $2.51 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 45.0% $5.01 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 2.0% $1.85 | $12.05 +84.2% | $7.93 +21.3% | 45.0% | +56.6% | $6.54 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $5.61 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Trace Lock 15.0% $2.24 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.85 | $5.61 +122.8% | $2.96 +17.4% | 43.0% | +49.9% | $2.52 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Achroma Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 5.0% $12.05 Electrum 18.0% $7.00 Trace Lock 5.0% $5.03 Firebreathing 18.0% $5.02 Galigator 18.0% $3.34 Amberline 18.0% $3.17 | $12.05 +191.7% | $4.75 +15.1% | 46.0% | +50.7% | $4.13 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Achroma Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 The End  10.0% $27.17 Kintsugi  30.0% $9.46 Deathgaze  30.0% $9.21 | $35.39 +126.0% | $18.93 +20.9% | 40.0% | +76.5% | $15.66 | — |