The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Fragment
3x $0.48
RMX
3x $0.50
Bock Blocks
1x $1.53
Dark Polymer
1x $2.04
Grip Tape
2x $0.87
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
10.0% $27.06
Electrum
16.0% $19.50
Trace Lock
10.0% $13.99
Firebreathing
16.0% $12.97
Galigator
16.0% $11.06
Amberline
16.0% $10.23
Max Win
$27.06 (+110.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$14.31 (+11.3%)
Win %
52.0%
Volatility
+41.3%
Cost
$12.85
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $12.85
Ask Price EV $14.31 (+11.3%)
Bid Price EV $13.55 (+5.5%)
Ask Profit $1.46 (+11.3%)
Bid Profit $0.70 (+5.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.75 (+5.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.46
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.70
Risk
Win Probability 52.0%
Loss Probability 48.0%
Best Case $27.06 (+110.6%)
Worst Case $10.00 (-22.2%)
Volatility +41.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$5.03
Avg Loss -$2.42
Bottom 5% Outcome $10.00 (-22.2%)
Std Dev $5.31
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 155h 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Factory New
$1.54 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.35 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 33S //TOTAL COST $12.85 //ASK PRICE EV $14.31 //BID PRICE EV $13.55 //ASK PROFIT $1.46 (+11.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.70 (+5.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 52.0% //BEST CASE $27.06 //VOLATILITY +41.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$27.06
+$14.21
+110.6%
$26.47
+$13.62
+106.0%
$0.59
2.2%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$19.50
+$6.65
+51.7%
$17.32
+$4.47
+34.8%
$2.18
11.2%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$13.99
+$1.13
+8.8%
$13.26
+$0.41
+3.2%
$0.72
5.2%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$12.97
+$0.12
+0.9%
$11.57
-$1.28
-10.0%
$1.40
10.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$11.06
-$1.79
-13.9%
$10.78
-$2.07
-16.1%
$0.28
2.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$10.23
-$2.62
-20.4%
$10.21
-$2.64
-20.5%
$0.02
0.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$10.00
-$2.85
-22.2%
$9.98
-$2.87
-22.3%
$0.02
0.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 12.967,
"optimistic_value": 12.89,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 11.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 11.0575,
"optimistic_value": 11.04,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 10.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:31:59.189894Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 19.4975,
"optimistic_value": 19.34,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 10.233500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 10.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:31:59.199275Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 10,
"optimistic_value": 10,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 9.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:12.735506Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.052469999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 27.057000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 27.05,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:17.581071Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 13.985,
"optimistic_value": 13.74,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:37.719548Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f88b6d476d69df8c5f8f0fa0",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "526501640651263541",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:42.866394Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "515242641502612789",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:22:54.586680Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "519746188259337632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:22:54.586680Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "491598743580519002",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:42.866394Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "503983642533926539",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:04.678761Z"
},
{
"price": 1.54,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "503983642533910159",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:12.114053Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "494976443343270786",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:22.372179Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "511864941882379353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:11.083889Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "510739041955419250",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:52.040208Z"
},
{
"price": 2.35,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620341243286300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:45.232980Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:8+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $5.61 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Trace Lock 10.0% $2.33 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $1.77 | $5.61 +125.4% | $2.81 +12.8% | 42.0% | +46.1% | $2.49 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.05 Electrum 16.0% $7.00 Trace Lock 10.0% $5.03 Firebreathing 16.0% $5.02 Galigator 16.0% $3.34 Amberline 16.0% $3.17 | $12.05 +159.1% | $5.17 +11.2% | 52.0% | +54.6% | $4.65 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 35.0% $5.01 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Amberline 6.0% $1.78 | $12.05 +124.0% | $6.73 +25.1% | 35.0% | +72.0% | $5.38 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 30.0% $5.01 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.85 | $12.05 +144.4% | $6.13 +24.4% | 60.0% | +78.1% | $4.93 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $5.61 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.24 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.85 | $5.61 +115.1% | $3.24 +24.0% | 45.0% | +55.0% | $2.61 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 40.0% $5.01 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 Amberline 4.0% $1.78 | $12.05 +102.8% | $7.33 +23.4% | 40.0% | +64.3% | $5.94 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $5.61 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Trace Lock 20.0% $2.24 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.85 | $5.61 +123.6% | $3.10 +23.4% | 44.0% | +53.9% | $2.51 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Trace Lock 45.0% $5.01 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 2.0% $1.85 | $12.05 +84.2% | $7.93 +21.3% | 45.0% | +56.6% | $6.54 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $5.61 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Trace Lock 15.0% $2.24 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.85 | $5.61 +122.8% | $2.96 +17.4% | 43.0% | +49.9% | $2.52 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Achroma Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 5.0% $12.05 Electrum 18.0% $7.00 Trace Lock 5.0% $5.03 Firebreathing 18.0% $5.02 Galigator 18.0% $3.34 Amberline 18.0% $3.17 | $12.05 +191.7% | $4.75 +15.1% | 46.0% | +50.7% | $4.13 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Achroma Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 The End  10.0% $27.17 Kintsugi  30.0% $9.46 Deathgaze  30.0% $9.21 | $35.39 +126.0% | $18.93 +20.9% | 40.0% | +76.5% | $15.66 | — |