The Fever Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7
Restricted → Classified MW ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Wave Breaker
3x $2.42
Amberline
2x $2.89
Urban Sovereign
4x $3.64
Galigator
1x $5.09
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
23.3% $126.41
Shinobu
10.0% $35.33
Searing Rage
10.0% $26.81
Kintsugi
23.3% $21.21
Deathgaze
23.3% $21.03
K.O. Factory
10.0% $14.04
Max Win
$126.41 (+238.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$46.97 (+25.9%)
Win %
23.3%
Volatility
+118.2%
Cost
$37.32
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $37.32
Ask Price EV $46.97 (+25.9%)
Bid Price EV $41.99 (+12.5%)
Ask Profit $9.65 (+25.9%)
Bid Profit $4.67 (+12.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $4.97 (+13.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$9.65
Bid Slippage Buffer +$4.67
Risk
Win Probability 23.3%
Loss Probability 76.7%
Best Case $126.41 (+238.7%)
Worst Case $14.04 (-62.4%)
Volatility +118.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 66.7%
Avg Win +$89.09
Avg Loss -$14.53
Bottom 5% Outcome $14.04 (-62.4%)
Std Dev $44.13
Avg Norm Float 0.1494
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 41h 17m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Wave Breaker
—
Minimal Wear
$2.42 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Wave Breaker
—
Minimal Wear
$2.50 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Wave Breaker
—
Minimal Wear
$2.66 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$2.89 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$3.27 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.64 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.85 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.98 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.02 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$5.09 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 38S //TOTAL COST $37.32 //ASK PRICE EV $46.97 //BID PRICE EV $41.99 //ASK PROFIT $9.65 (+25.9%) //BID PROFIT $4.67 (+12.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 23.3% //BEST CASE $126.41 //VOLATILITY +118.2% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$126.41
+$89.09
+238.7%
$112.39
+$75.07
+201.2%
$14.02
11.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$35.33
-$1.99
-5.3%
$28.37
-$8.95
-24.0%
$6.96
19.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$26.81
-$10.51
-28.2%
$22.56
-$14.76
-39.5%
$4.25
15.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$21.21
-$16.11
-43.2%
$20.30
-$17.02
-45.6%
$0.91
4.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$21.03
-$16.29
-43.7%
$19.46
-$17.86
-47.9%
$1.57
7.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$14.04
-$23.28
-62.4%
$14.00
-$23.32
-62.5%
$0.04
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.14938,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 126.41149999999999,
"optimistic_value": 124,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 112.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.452841Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.14938,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 21.21,
"optimistic_value": 20.3,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 20.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:56:31.753159Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.14938,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 21.0255,
"optimistic_value": 20.56,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 19.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:03.293640Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14938,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4c2e3face5fd",
"realistic_value": 26.8065,
"optimistic_value": 26.46,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Searing Rage",
"conservative_value": 22.56,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:02:00.221049Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c2e3face5fd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14938,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a7838b4ba71f",
"realistic_value": 35.326499999999996,
"optimistic_value": 35.12,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Shinobu",
"conservative_value": 28.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:05:00.590744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7838b4ba71f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14938,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a6a2858b51d",
"realistic_value": 14.042,
"optimistic_value": 14,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory",
"conservative_value": 14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:10.466145Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a6a2858b51d.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f8377ac7249a526c056748ae",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.42,
"skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"listing_id": "492724590626068029",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:13:03.315863Z"
},
{
"price": 2.5,
"skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"listing_id": "521997988016058774",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:13:03.315863Z"
},
{
"price": 2.66,
"skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"listing_id": "529879235107639260",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:13:03.315863Z"
},
{
"price": 2.89,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724590627303729",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:12.950019Z"
},
{
"price": 3.27,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724643508044325",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:12.950019Z"
},
{
"price": 3.64,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "498354037510570279",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:58:57.125996Z"
},
{
"price": 4.85,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "502857742727188396",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:58:48.414932Z"
},
{
"price": 4.98,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "527627540538119900",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:58:48.414932Z"
},
{
"price": 5.02,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "528753387757645605",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:58:48.414932Z"
},
{
"price": 5.09,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "518620341243802000",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:58:47.589758Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-35:3+collection-set-community-37:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Shinobu 10.0% $85.17 Searing Rage 10.0% $62.80 Kintsugi 23.3% $60.46 Deathgaze 23.3% $58.59 K.O. Factory 10.0% $52.47 | $290.04 +227.4% | $115.50 +30.4% | 23.3% | +109.1% | $88.60 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $63.86 Searing Rage 10.0% $15.95 Shinobu 10.0% $14.72 Kintsugi 23.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 23.3% $11.23 K.O. Factory 10.0% $8.27 | $63.86 +224.5% | $24.37 +23.8% | 23.3% | +111.2% | $19.68 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Battle-Scarred ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $46.25 Searing Rage 10.0% $15.12 Shinobu 10.0% $11.02 Kintsugi 23.3% $9.34 Deathgaze 23.3% $7.86 K.O. Factory 10.0% $6.81 | $46.25 +156.0% | $18.10 +0.2% | 23.3% | +86.8% | $18.07 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $290.04 Shinobu 3.3% $85.17 Searing Rage 3.3% $61.96 Kintsugi 30.0% $60.46 Deathgaze 30.0% $58.59 K.O. Factory 3.3% $52.47 | $290.04 +198.2% | $129.38 +33.0% | 30.0% | +108.3% | $97.25 | — |
The Fever Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Shinobu 6.7% $85.17 Searing Rage 6.7% $61.96 Kintsugi 26.7% $60.46 Deathgaze 26.7% $58.59 K.O. Factory 6.7% $52.47 | $290.04 +211.4% | $122.40 +31.4% | 26.7% | +108.8% | $93.13 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Shinobu 13.3% $85.17 Searing Rage 13.3% $62.80 Kintsugi 20.0% $60.46 Deathgaze 20.0% $58.59 K.O. Factory 13.3% $52.47 | $290.04 +242.2% | $108.54 +28.1% | 33.3% | +107.6% | $84.76 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $63.86 Searing Rage 16.7% $15.95 Shinobu 16.7% $14.72 Kintsugi 16.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 16.7% $11.23 K.O. Factory 16.7% $8.27 | $63.86 +285.4% | $21.11 +27.4% | 16.7% | +116.3% | $16.57 | — |
The Fever Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $63.86 Searing Rage 20.0% $15.95 Shinobu 20.0% $14.72 Kintsugi 13.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 13.3% $11.23 K.O. Factory 20.0% $8.27 | $63.86 +316.6% | $19.48 +27.1% | 33.3% | +114.9% | $15.33 | — |
The Fever Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $126.41 Shinobu 23.3% $35.33 Searing Rage 23.3% $26.81 Kintsugi 10.0% $21.21 Deathgaze 10.0% $21.03 K.O. Factory 23.3% $14.04 | $126.41 +358.2% | $34.64 +25.5% | 33.3% | +114.2% | $27.59 | — |
The Fever Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 6.7% $63.86 Searing Rage 26.7% $15.95 Shinobu 26.7% $14.72 Kintsugi 6.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 6.7% $11.23 K.O. Factory 26.7% $8.27 | $63.86 +392.7% | $16.23 +25.2% | 60.0% | +101.0% | $12.96 | — |
The Fever Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 3.3% $126.41 Shinobu 30.0% $35.33 Searing Rage 30.0% $26.81 Kintsugi 3.3% $21.21 Deathgaze 3.3% $21.03 K.O. Factory 30.0% $14.01 | $126.41 +434.7% | $28.46 +20.4% | 63.3% | +84.7% | $23.64 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing  12.0% $31.66 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.85 Rising Sun  8.0% $12.94 | $51.27 +248.6% | $19.37 +31.7% | 36.0% | +83.3% | $14.71 | — |