← Results

The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Factory New +11.2%Field-Tested +29.6%Minimal Wear +14.0%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Zubastick
M4A4 | Zubastick
2x $0.41
Bock Blocks
M249 | Bock Blocks
3x $1.49
Fragment
UMP-45 | Fragment
1x $1.66
Exchanger
P250 | Exchanger
1x $0.70
Co-Processor
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
3x $1.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Nuclear Garden
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden
13.3% $55.76
Random Access
AUG | Random Access
13.3% $19.77
Core Breach
MAG-7 | Core Breach
13.3% $8.43
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
12.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
12.0% $5.02
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
12.0% $3.37
Max Win
$55.76 (+360.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$13.80 (+14.0%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+142.8%
Cost
$12.10
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $12.10
Ask Price EV $13.80 (+14.0%)
Bid Price EV $13.38 (+10.5%)
Ask Profit $1.70 (+14.0%)
Bid Profit $1.28 (+10.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.42 (+3.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.70
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.28
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $55.76 (+360.8%)
Worst Case $3.13 (-74.2%)
Volatility +142.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 73.3%
Avg Win +$25.66
Avg Loss -$7.02
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.13 (-74.2%)
Std Dev $17.27
Avg Norm Float 0.0998
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 148h 4m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)
$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)
$1.50 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Factory New
UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)
$1.66 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Minimal Wear
P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Minimal Wear
MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Minimal Wear
MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)
$1.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Minimal Wear
MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)
$1.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 30S //TOTAL COST $12.10 //ASK PRICE EV $13.80 //BID PRICE EV $13.38 //ASK PROFIT $1.70 (+14.0%) //BID PROFIT $1.28 (+10.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $55.76 //VOLATILITY +142.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.049875,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
      "realistic_value": 19.772,
      "optimistic_value": 19.66,
      "output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
      "conservative_value": 19.52,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:52:26.466024Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.069825,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
      "realistic_value": 55.757,
      "optimistic_value": 55.4,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
      "conservative_value": 55.39,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T14:11:16.386274Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.09975,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
      "realistic_value": 8.428,
      "optimistic_value": 8.4,
      "output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
      "conservative_value": 8.05,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:16.418947Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.12,
      "output_float": 0.09975,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
      "realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
      "optimistic_value": 4.95,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
      "conservative_value": 3.97,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.12,
      "output_float": 0.09975,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
      "realistic_value": 3.37,
      "optimistic_value": 3.37,
      "output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
      "conservative_value": 3.18,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:00:09.286942Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.12,
      "output_float": 0.09975,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
      "realistic_value": 6.997,
      "optimistic_value": 6.99,
      "output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
      "conservative_value": 5.93,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.12,
      "output_float": 0.09975,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "realistic_value": 3.181,
      "optimistic_value": 3.16,
      "output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "conservative_value": 3.13,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:38.160689Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.12,
      "output_float": 0.09975,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "realistic_value": 3.1270000000000002,
      "optimistic_value": 3.12,
      "output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "conservative_value": 3.08,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:54:55.459825Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_f6f1a284fe46a2d8efc5e1d8",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
      "listing_id": "510739041953617126",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:48.491023Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.83,
      "skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
      "listing_id": "632334745617362111",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:48.491023Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
      "listing_id": "500605889842177643",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
      "name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:30.708495Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
      "listing_id": "526501587738388985",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
      "name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:30.708495Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.62,
      "skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
      "listing_id": "515242588555458097",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
      "name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:30.708495Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.66,
      "skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
      "listing_id": "517494388634456698",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:31.715489Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
      "listing_id": "505109489448960284",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P250 | Exchanger",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:52:28.462163Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
      "listing_id": "498353293067394211",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:06.777424Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.3,
      "skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
      "listing_id": "762930893774723286",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:06.777424Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
      "listing_id": "498353293067392627",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:06.777424Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:6+collection-set-nuke-2:4"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Random Access
AUG | Random Access
13.3% $4.28
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
12.0% $4.11
Nuclear Garden
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden
13.3% $3.34
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
12.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
12.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
12.0% $1.79
$4.28
+103.7%
$2.72
+29.6%
62.7%+41.1%$2.10—
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Nuclear Garden
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden
13.3% $55.76
Core Breach
MAG-7 | Core Breach
13.3% $29.13
Random Access
AUG | Random Access
13.3% $19.77
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
12.0% $19.50
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
12.0% $12.97
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
12.0% $11.13
$55.76
+186.8%
$21.61
+11.2%
52.0%+70.2%$19.44—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Random Access
AUG | Random Access
20.0% $4.28
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
8.0% $4.11
Nuclear Garden
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden
20.0% $3.34
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
8.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
8.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
8.0% $1.73
$4.28
+103.7%
$2.82
+34.2%
64.0%+41.0%$2.10—
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Random Access
AUG | Random Access
16.7% $4.28
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
10.0% $4.11
Nuclear Garden
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden
16.7% $3.34
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
10.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
10.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
10.0% $1.79
$4.28
+102.7%
$2.77
+31.5%
63.3%+40.7%$2.11—
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Random Access
AUG | Random Access
10.0% $4.28
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
14.0% $4.11
Nuclear Garden
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden
10.0% $3.34
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
14.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
14.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
14.0% $1.73
$4.28
+104.7%
$2.66
+27.3%
62.0%+41.6%$2.09—
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Random Access
AUG | Random Access
6.7% $4.33
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
16.0% $4.11
Nuclear Garden
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden
6.7% $3.34
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
16.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
16.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
16.0% $1.86
$4.33
+108.4%
$2.64
+26.9%
61.3%+40.3%$2.08—
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Random Access
AUG | Random Access
23.3% $4.33
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
6.0% $4.11
Nuclear Garden
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden
23.3% $3.34
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
6.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
6.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
6.0% $1.86
$4.33
+86.8%
$2.89
+24.8%
58.7%+36.4%$2.32—
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Random Access
AUG | Random Access
3.3% $4.33
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
18.0% $4.11
Nuclear Garden
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden
3.3% $3.34
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
18.0% $2.79
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
18.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
18.0% $1.86
$4.33
+96.1%
$2.59
+17.1%
42.7%+37.0%$2.21—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Control Panel
M4A1-S | Control Panel
20.0% $418.56
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
20.0% $150.19
Remote Control
Tec-9 | Remote Control
20.0% $94.77
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
20.0% $39.85
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
20.0% $38.44
$418.56
+261.0%
$148.36
+28.0%
40.0%+121.8%$115.95—
FS

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