The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Zubastick
2x $0.41
Bock Blocks
2x $1.49
Fragment
1x $1.66
Dark Polymer
1x $2.12
Facility Negative
2x $2.27
Acheron
1x $2.50
↓
Possible Outputs
Nuclear Garden
13.3% $55.76
Core Breach
13.3% $29.13
Random Access
13.3% $19.77
Electrum
12.0% $19.50
Firebreathing
12.0% $12.97
Galigator
12.0% $11.13
Max Win
$55.76 (+186.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$21.61 (+11.2%)
Win %
52.0%
Volatility
+75.9%
Cost
$19.44
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.44
Ask Price EV $21.61 (+11.2%)
Bid Price EV $20.85 (+7.3%)
Ask Profit $2.17 (+11.2%)
Bid Profit $1.41 (+7.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.76 (+3.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.17
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.41
Risk
Win Probability 52.0%
Loss Probability 48.0%
Best Case $55.76 (+186.8%)
Worst Case $10.00 (-48.6%)
Volatility +75.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$11.90
Avg Loss -$8.36
Bottom 5% Outcome $10.00 (-48.6%)
Std Dev $14.76
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 148h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Factory New
$1.66 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Factory New
$2.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Factory New
$2.16 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Acheron
—
Minimal Wear
$2.50 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Factory New
$2.55 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.78 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 14S //TOTAL COST $19.44 //ASK PRICE EV $21.61 //BID PRICE EV $20.85 //ASK PROFIT $2.17 (+11.2%) //BID PROFIT $1.41 (+7.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 52.0% //BEST CASE $55.76 //VOLATILITY +75.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
13.3%
$55.76
+$36.32
+186.8%
$55.39
+$35.95
+184.9%
$0.37
0.7%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$29.13
+$9.69
+49.9%
$27.72
+$8.28
+42.6%
$1.41
4.8%
—
SMALL WIN
13.3%
$19.77
+$0.33
+1.7%
$19.52
+$0.08
+0.4%
$0.25
1.3%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$19.50
+$0.06
+0.3%
$17.32
-$2.12
-10.9%
$2.18
11.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$12.97
-$6.47
-33.3%
$11.57
-$7.87
-40.5%
$1.40
10.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$11.13
-$8.31
-42.8%
$10.78
-$8.66
-44.5%
$0.35
3.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$10.24
-$9.20
-47.3%
$10.09
-$9.35
-48.1%
$0.15
1.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$10.00
-$9.44
-48.6%
$9.98
-$9.46
-48.7%
$0.02
0.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.034895,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 19.772,
"optimistic_value": 19.66,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 19.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:52:26.466024Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.048853,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 55.757,
"optimistic_value": 55.4,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 55.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T14:11:16.386274Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 29.132,
"optimistic_value": 28.67,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 27.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:59:59.389984Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 12.967,
"optimistic_value": 12.89,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 11.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 11.128499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 11.09,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 10.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:05:54.036577Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 19.4975,
"optimistic_value": 19.34,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 10.237,
"optimistic_value": 10.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 10.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:05:54.585713Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 10,
"optimistic_value": 10,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 9.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:08:41.054476Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f6f1a284fe46a2d8efc5e1d8",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "510739041953617126",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:48.491023Z"
},
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "500605889842177643",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:30.708495Z"
},
{
"price": 1.5,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "526501587738388985",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:30.708495Z"
},
{
"price": 1.66,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "517494388634456698",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:31.715489Z"
},
{
"price": 2.12,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "519746241188345048",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:52:31.229610Z"
},
{
"price": 2.16,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "501731842661049701",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:52:39.912875Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "511864091802328281",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:08:43.014967Z"
},
{
"price": 2.5,
"skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"listing_id": "510739041953617630",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AWP | Acheron",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:06:10.175842Z"
},
{
"price": 2.55,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "490472738291788659",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:05:50.518241Z"
},
{
"price": 2.78,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "518620235869057900",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:08:43.014967Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:6+collection-set-nuke-2:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 13.3% $4.28 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $1.79 | $4.28 +103.7% | $2.72 +29.6% | 62.7% | +41.1% | $2.10 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Nuclear Garden 13.3% $55.76 Random Access 13.3% $19.77 Core Breach 13.3% $8.43 Electrum 12.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 12.0% $5.02 Galigator 12.0% $3.37 | $55.76 +360.8% | $13.80 +14.0% | 26.7% | +136.1% | $12.10 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 20.0% $4.28 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.73 | $4.28 +103.7% | $2.82 +34.2% | 64.0% | +41.0% | $2.10 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 16.7% $4.28 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 16.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.79 | $4.28 +102.7% | $2.77 +31.5% | 63.3% | +40.7% | $2.11 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 10.0% $4.28 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $1.73 | $4.28 +104.7% | $2.66 +27.3% | 62.0% | +41.6% | $2.09 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 6.7% $4.33 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 6.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $1.86 | $4.33 +108.4% | $2.64 +26.9% | 61.3% | +40.3% | $2.08 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 23.3% $4.33 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 23.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.86 | $4.33 +86.8% | $2.89 +24.8% | 58.7% | +36.4% | $2.32 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 3.3% $4.33 Electrum 18.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 3.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 18.0% $2.79 Galigator 18.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $1.86 | $4.33 +96.1% | $2.59 +17.1% | 42.7% | +37.0% | $2.21 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  20.0% $418.56 Crane Flight  20.0% $150.19 Remote Control  20.0% $94.77 Deathgaze  20.0% $39.85 Kintsugi  20.0% $38.44 | $418.56 +261.0% | $148.36 +28.0% | 40.0% | +121.8% | $115.95 | — |