The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Zubastick
2x $0.16
Dark Polymer
2x $0.20
Fragment
2x $0.27
Facility Negative
2x $0.16
Exchanger
2x $0.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Random Access
13.3% $4.35
Electrum
12.0% $4.11
Nuclear Garden
13.3% $3.34
Firebreathing
12.0% $2.79
Galigator
12.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
12.0% $1.90
Max Win
$4.35 (+109.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.75 (+32.3%)
Win %
62.7%
Volatility
+49.6%
Cost
$2.08
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.08
Ask Price EV $2.75 (+32.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.47 (+18.6%)
Ask Profit $0.67 (+32.3%)
Bid Profit $0.39 (+18.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.28 (+13.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.67
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.39
Risk
Win Probability 62.7%
Loss Probability 37.3%
Best Case $4.35 (+109.0%)
Worst Case $1.48 (-28.7%)
Volatility +49.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 13.3%
Avg Win +$1.29
Avg Loss -$0.38
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.48 (-28.7%)
Std Dev $1.03
Avg Norm Float 0.2996
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 146h 56m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Field-Tested
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 28S //TOTAL COST $2.08 //ASK PRICE EV $2.75 //BID PRICE EV $2.47 //ASK PROFIT $0.67 (+32.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.39 (+18.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 62.7% //BEST CASE $4.35 //VOLATILITY +49.6% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$4.35
+$2.27
+109.0%
$4.00
+$1.92
+92.3%
$0.35
8.0%
—
BIG WIN
12.0%
$4.11
+$2.03
+97.6%
$3.61
+$1.53
+73.6%
$0.50
12.2%
—
BIG WIN
13.3%
$3.34
+$1.26
+60.4%
$3.22
+$1.14
+54.8%
$0.12
3.5%
—
WIN
12.0%
$2.79
+$0.71
+34.0%
$2.32
+$0.24
+11.5%
$0.47
16.8%
—
PAPER WIN
12.0%
$2.19
+$0.11
+5.1%
$1.74
-$0.34
-16.3%
$0.45
20.4%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$1.90
-$0.18
-8.8%
$1.63
-$0.45
-21.6%
$0.27
14.1%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$1.76
-$0.32
-15.5%
$1.63
-$0.45
-21.6%
$0.13
7.2%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$1.48
-$0.60
-28.7%
$1.44
-$0.64
-30.8%
$0.04
3.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.149805,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 4.3475,
"optimistic_value": 4.33,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:59:00.144850Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.20972699999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 3.337,
"optimistic_value": 3.33,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 3.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T02:38:41.005343Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.29961,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 1.484,
"optimistic_value": 1.47,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 1.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:01.386132Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.29961,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.29961,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.29961,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.29961,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.757,
"optimistic_value": 1.75,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:36.828115Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.29961,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.8975,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:46:23.087983Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f6f1a284fe46a2d8efc5e1d8",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "508487189340890990",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:05.040127Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287550965708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:05.040127Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "502857689863257676",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:59.353013Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "517494388634367706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:59.353013Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "523123888072505314",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:58.299778Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "512990789044719455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:58.299778Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "520872088107355044",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:38.251872Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "502857689863202704",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:38.251872Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "526501587737192633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:46:50.135999Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "525375688036511467",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:46:50.135999Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:6+collection-set-nuke-2:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 13.3% $19.77 Core Breach 13.3% $8.30 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $8.25 Electrum 12.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 12.0% $5.02 Galigator 12.0% $3.34 | $19.77 +224.1% | $7.44 +22.0% | 52.0% | +79.0% | $6.10 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Nuclear Garden 13.3% $55.76 Core Breach 13.3% $29.13 Random Access 13.3% $19.77 Electrum 12.0% $19.50 Firebreathing 12.0% $12.97 Galigator 12.0% $11.24 | $55.76 +177.5% | $21.63 +7.7% | 26.7% | +67.8% | $20.09 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 20.0% $4.35 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.90 | $4.35 +97.6% | $2.86 +29.8% | 56.0% | +38.7% | $2.20 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 16.7% $4.35 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 16.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.90 | $4.35 +100.3% | $2.81 +29.3% | 63.3% | +39.5% | $2.17 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 6.7% $4.35 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 6.7% $3.34 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $1.90 | $4.35 +110.0% | $2.66 +28.4% | 61.3% | +40.1% | $2.07 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 10.0% $19.77 Core Breach 10.0% $8.30 Nuclear Garden 10.0% $8.25 Electrum 14.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 14.0% $5.02 Galigator 14.0% $3.38 | $19.77 +256.9% | $6.68 +20.7% | 44.0% | +79.8% | $5.54 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 3.3% $4.35 Electrum 18.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 3.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 18.0% $2.79 Galigator 18.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $1.90 | $4.35 +96.7% | $2.61 +18.0% | 42.7% | +36.6% | $2.21 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 23.3% $4.35 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Nuclear Garden 23.3% $3.34 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.90 | $4.35 +73.9% | $2.91 +16.3% | 58.7% | +33.7% | $2.50 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  10.0% $418.56 Crane Flight  26.7% $150.19 Remote Control  10.0% $94.77 Deathgaze  26.7% $40.33 Kintsugi  26.7% $38.72 | $418.56 +385.4% | $112.47 +30.4% | 46.7% | +130.3% | $86.23 | — |